4NCL North 2014-15

[MartinCarpenter]

Well, we got a polite draw out of it in the end Noticed Shropshire playing Rhyfelwyr Essyllwg too but I guess there's some cross border warfare involved there!

Shame that Manchester 2 seemed to finally catch vertigo after getting another quite winnable looking match. Still a handy lead over MM1 though Not that surprised really. Not quite as strong individually but they're very used to playing together as a team (Calderdale, various Lancashire teams etc) which MM1 won't really be.

They are also of course a (genuinely) fine example of Manchester/Lancashire cooperation. Not sure if that makes the thing with the county championships less or more frustrating!

[Phil Neatherway]

A chastening experience for Oxford 3 this weekend. Having played well to get to 6 points, we found ourselves paired with 2 very strong northern teams. On Saturday, we played Bradford A, average ratings 1700 v 2095. All of Bradford's players except one were rated higher than Oxford 2's board 1. Not helped by a default, we lost 6 - -0.5.

On Sunday, we were then drawn against Manchester A. This time, the average ratings were 1686 v 2066. We did better this time, losing 5.5 - 0.5. At least Oxford 2 got revenge for us by beating Bradford A.

I guess this shows that the northern teams are on average much stronger, although there are not so many of them.

Oh, and well played to Bradford and Manchester, who played the Heffalump to perfection.

[MartinCarpenter]

Very unlucky to run into both these teams on the same weekend! You have my sympathy They both really could/should have a few more match points than they currently do.

3N this season more solid rather than stronger - really not many 200's involved outside North East 1 but also lots of teams running from ~180 to 170 on 6. So the slightly stronger teams like DCA A and MM1 have to really earn their wins!

The split off Div3 will be similar next season. It'll take a really strong/determined team to get a big score from either.

[Mick Norris]

Interesting results - looks like NE1 and Cetic Tigers 1 are set for 2 of the 4 promotion spots, anybodys guess how the others will be filled

I still have hopes our second team can defy logic and get promoted

How was the Daventry experience by the way?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

That's my impression as well, of division 3. I would like to see more solid stats on how many 200+ players are actually playing in division 3, and whether this number has varied from other seasons. More statistically relevant would be where the cut-off is for the top 10% of players. What grading band are they in? All above 190?

Just going by FIDE ratings for rounds 7 and 8, there seem to have been only 11 players rated above 2200:

Polaczek, Richard IM (2433)
Cooper, Lawrence H IM (2330)
Walker, David J FM (2294)
Meszaros, Gyula IM (2274)
Buckley, David E (2270)
Thorarinsson, Pall (2239)
Hall, John FM (2234)
Maleki, Manuel (2230)
Willmoth, Rob (2215)
Briscoe, Chris (2201)

I briefly shared a car journey with Richard Polaczek on the Sunday afternoon after the games had finished. I'd never met him before and assumed he was another player of around the same standard as most of us woodpushers. Didn't realised he was the highest-rated player there...

[David Robertson]

The escape velocity from Div 3 is 16 points, although 15 points can do it (and has).

On that basis, for NE1 and Celtic Tigers, their work is pretty much done. They are two of the four strongest teams by rating; any repeat of turnout in May should ease both through. Of the rest, one would expect two others from the cluster on 12. One of the e2.e4 teams, presumably e2.e4 2; and Broadland Bitterns, would be my bet.

But the final weekend can produce strange outcomes; some might say, 'distortions' caused by, ahem, 'strengthening'. So a team currently on 10 points can surge forward on a six-point roll. On performance to date, however, one couldn't predict it. That would leave MM2 and Ched 2 out of the frame.

Of the 3N teams this weekend, best performers were MM3 (4/4) - not often we can say that! Followed by SoA-B (3/4) where the tussles between Northern grandads and Southern posh kids (Kent & Barnet) left our grandads out of breath, but just ahead. Continuing poor form? Bradford A, whose under-performance in earlier rounds had left a pre-tournament favourite with no margin for error. Alas, losing both top boards on Sunday must have been a shock from which they couldn't recover. No promotion from this point now.

[Phil Neatherway]

Bradford's Round 8 match featured losses on Boards 1 and 2 as David said. Both Oxford players were outgraded by c. 140. The remaining boards were all drawn. All the Oxford players were outgraded by at least 100 points, so a very good performance by Oxford 2.

[MartinCarpenter]

Well done Oskar is a bit erratic still, but less so and fearfully strong when he plays well. Can't be far off belonging to that list of 2200's.

Counting up, it looks like Div3N formally has about 20 per cent(!) of its players at 190+. So Div3 combined might well be over ten per cent even with Div3's rather bigger tail.

Mind you I wouldn't be at all surprised if 180 was the fifty per cent cut off for 3N this season, so a fair few will creep over 190 each season by random chance.

MM2 going up would definitely be highly amusing but suspect they really needed to beat e2e4 3 to have a chance There's always next season
(Quite a genuine chance then actually.).

[MartinCarpenter]

Well... This would be far too tedious to do for the whole Div3! 3N is quite manageable though. Round 6.

1 default so 77 players. Mean 172, Median 175.

200+ = 4, 199-190 = 11, 189-180 = 15, 179-170 = 20, 169-160 = 9, 159-150 = 10, 149- = 8.

The 190 group is massively biased towards the low end. 5 at 191 or 190.

Rough team strengths, with modest adjustments for unusual players that weekend?
NE1 195, MM1/Ched2/SpiritB/DCA A 185, Holmes Chapel/MM2/Jorvik 175, NE2/DCA B 165, MM3 155, DCA C 150.

You really wouldn't expect DCA A/MM1 to have wracked up big scores. Just not much stronger than sundry other teams. Of the top 8 teams only Jorvik routinely field anyone notably <170 and that's only on 6. Take NE1 out, and no replacement (as seems likely) and it'll be awfully open/close next season.

[Neil Graham]

That's my impression as well, of division 3. I would like to see more solid stats on how many 200+ players are actually playing in division 3, and whether this number has varied from other seasons. More statistically relevant would be where the cut-off is for the top 10% of players. What grading band are they in? All above 190?

Just going by FIDE ratings for rounds 7 and 8, there seem to have been only 11 players rated above 2200:

Polaczek, Richard IM (2433)
Cooper, Lawrence H IM (2330)
Walker, David J FM (2294)
Meszaros, Gyula IM (2274)
Buckley, David E (2270)
Thorarinsson, Pall (2239)
Hall, John FM (2234)
Maleki, Manuel (2230)
Willmoth, Rob (2215)
Briscoe, Chris (2201)

I briefly shared a car journey with Richard Polaczek on the Sunday afternoon after the games had finished. I'd never met him before and assumed he was another player of around the same standard as most of us woodpushers. Didn't realised he was the highest-rated player there...

Oddly enough I make that 10 players rather than 11.

ECF gradings are a much more accurate gauge to strength than FIDE ratings and I made it that 19 players graded 200 and above played in Rounds 7 & 8 which is about double the figure that Christopher quotes above.

I am very pleased that the rules have been amended to include "Captains may elect to use the latest published ECF grades or other national ratings for conversion to an equivalent FIDE rating using the appropriate conversion formula for any player, provided this is declared prior to the player playing in that season. Such an election is irrevocable for the season.. We can at least avoid juniors with FIDE ratings of 1600 having to play at that rating when their ECF conversion shows a FIDE rating in excess of 1900!

[Neil Graham]

The escape velocity from Div 3 is 16 points, although 15 points can do it (and has).

On that basis, for NE1 and Celtic Tigers, their work is pretty much done. They are two of the four strongest teams by rating; any repeat of turnout in May should ease both through. Of the rest, one would expect two others from the cluster on 12. One of the e2.e4 teams, presumably e2.e4 2; and Broadland Bitterns, would be my bet.

But the final weekend can produce strange outcomes; some might say, 'distortions' caused by, ahem, 'strengthening'. So a team currently on 10 points can surge forward on a six-point roll. On performance to date, however, one couldn't predict it. That would leave MM2 and Ched 2 out of the frame.

Of the 3N teams this weekend, best performers were MM3 (4/4) - not often we can say that! Followed by SoA-B (3/4) where the tussles between Northern grandads and Southern posh kids (Kent & Barnet) left our grandads out of breath, but just ahead. Continuing poor form? Bradford A, whose under-performance in earlier rounds had left a pre-tournament favourite with no margin for error. Alas, losing both top boards on Sunday must have been a shock from which they couldn't recover. No promotion from this point now.

There will be substantial jockeying I suspect for places in the new Division Three (South). It's clear that all the four teams relegated from Division Two will join that Division and I'm with David that the most likely promotion scenario from the current Division Three is one team from the North & three from from South. That leaves 12 places up for grabs for the next sides which will clearly be decided by a tiebreak, probably on 13 points.

[Roger de Coverly]

It's clear that all the four teams relegated from Division Two will join that Division

There's potentially the "tourist" vote that the Northern venues are more attractive than Telford.

[Neil Graham]

It's clear that all the four teams relegated from Division Two will join that Division

There's potentially the "tourist" vote that the Northern venues are more attractive than Telford.

Have any venues been announced yet for Division Three North? None of the teams or prospective teams in the Division Two relegation pool look likely candidates for a trip north.

[Mike Truran]

Hopefully shortly ......

Negotiating with hotels seems to be getting a whole lot harder again as the UK (reportedly) moves out of recession. The same thing happened a decade or so back, so I'm wearily resigned to it. These things seem to go in cycles.

[Mick Norris]

Hopefully shortly ......

Negotiating with hotels seems to be getting a whole lot harder again as the UK (reportedly) moves out of recession. The same thing happened a decade or so back, so I'm wearily resigned to it. These things seem to go in cycles.

Mike

Thanks again for all your efforts and sorry if we sound like we are hassling you to find out where we will be next season