4NCL so far this season

Venues, fixtures, teams and related matters.
Jonathan Rogers
Posts: 4640
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:26 pm

4NCL so far this season

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:41 pm

To kick start some discussion (hopefully!) -

First Division

Pool A

The weaker pool in terms of depth and the four qualifiers are already known. Given Wood Green's well known troubles, those qualifiers come as no surprise: Guildford 2, Blackthorne Russia (having a good start for a change) Barbican 1 and White Rose. None of them will carry more than 4/6 into the championship pool, though.

But the most impressive team has actually been Wood Green, if you make allowances for their lack of depth and bad luck with defaults and so on! The form of their IMs and GMs has been superb, and has carried a team which has been virtually absent on the bottom boards to two wins and a draw. It will carry 4/4 into the relegation pool, and 6/6 if it beats SW Dragons. They have, in my view, shown more spirit in recent adversity than they did in fighting for the title the last two years.

Pool B

The stronger pool both in terms of the top two teams and much more so in terms of depth.

Guildford 1 will win this with 100%, and will doubtless proceed to the title. Cheddleton gave them a couple of scares on two White boards but it was not enough. Cheddleton will carry 4/6 but we still don't know whether they will now coast to second; the teams which are just below them in terms of strength are all in Pool A.

The standout team of the pool and perhaps the whole 4NCL so far has been Oxford. Reprieved from relegation at the end of last season after the withdrawal of Wood Green 2, they have recruited more experienced players of 2300 calibre, giving themselves more depth and are reaping the benefits of their young talents Justin Tan and Marcus Harvey - but they still lack an experienced woman player and before the start of the season one would have assumed that avoiding relegation would be their limit. But they have now won their last three matches, making what somehow seems like their first ever win v Cambridge in 4NCL, in round four; and a crushing win against the odds against a specially beefed up Grantham Sharks 1 in round five. They are now in the championship pool for the first time ever and if we still had awards for captain of the year, Tim Dickinson could be given it already.

Second Division

Pool A

The stronger pool both in terms of the top teams and in terms of depth. (I have been saying for years, since 2000 in fact, that predicting the performance of teams for seeding purposes is a disastrous enterprise, which is why I was opposed to the pool system introduced in 2009 which puts particular reliance on it. Sometimes the pools look roughly even and turn out not to be so but in this case, it was surely always obvious that this was the stronger pool).

3Cs had a solid weekend and now know that they will drop their earlirt loss to KJCA Kings. They will carry 5/6 to the promotion pool, which they will be favourites to win. Guildford 3 are starting to show the results which one would expect from a team of their resources and will also expect to make the promotion pool, though their round seven opponents, Anglian Avengers, will take their place if they win. If Guildford 3 do take their place, they will still be ineligible to be promoted because only the rules disallow three teams from the safe squad in the same division.

The surprise package of this pool has been Sussex Smartlets, who have grown in confidence (I remember them agreeing draws in excellent positions just to get over the line v Guildford 3 in the first weekend) and, in their debut season, they have now edged out three very experienced second division sides. This is example 94 of just how unpredictable the second division can be. Cambridge 2 have also had an excellent season and earned a place already in the promotion pool, in their case repeating last year's good form. At the bottom of the pool stand KJCA Kings and Rhyfelwyr Essyllwg, who will both be very concerned that their single win each (v 3Cs and Guildford 3 respectively, no less) is likely not to carry and their seventh round clash will be a somewhat anxious one.

Pool B

Three teams have already qualified for the promotion pool: White Rose 2, Barbican Youth and (barring something quite extraordinary) Spirit of Atticus. White Rose 2's success could be predicted from previous years, but Barbican Youth had only escaped relegation on the final day in the last two seasons, whereas Spirit of Atticus went down and had to be repromoted. Both teams could claim to be the surprise package of the pool, and their drawn round six match (yesterday) was easily among the best matches that I have seen in the second division - a fighting match with six games going strong in the fifth hour and some complicated games with uncanny similarities on boards one and three which had everyone baffled. The fourth spot is in the hands of BCM Dragons but they next play Spirit of Atticus and so Grantham Sharks 2, due to play bottom team MK Phoenix, will entertain hopes of overtaking them. There is much for these teams to play for; if Barbican 2 survive in the first division, then (because of the rule disallowing three teams from the same squad in the same division, mentioned above) only six of the eight teams in the promotion pool will be eligible for the four promotion spots.

Third Division

No idea. Anyway, I am unpaid and tired! Many others on this forum will know about divison 3, however - so what have we missed?

User avatar
Christopher Kreuzer
Posts: 8806
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:34 am
Location: London

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:53 pm

Thanks, Jonathan.

In terms of division 1, I think only one place in the championship/relegation pools remains to be decided. It is in Pool B: the winner of the CU1-Grantham Sharks clash in R7. Any predictions there? Do you think the loser will likely survive the relegation pool regardless?

Jonathan Rogers
Posts: 4640
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:26 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:18 pm

Grantham to win (they only need to draw, which also helps) and Cambridge still to survive - they will carry 5/6.

User avatar
Christopher Kreuzer
Posts: 8806
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:34 am
Location: London

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:43 pm

Thanks, Jonathan. Hopefully not (a win for GS), thought I am a bit biased there.

About this rule: "the rule disallowing three teams from the same squad in the same division" - do you know what would happen if a team was relegated from division 1, and another one promoted from division 3, joining a third team already in division 2 (all in the same squad)?

Any predictions for who will get relegated from division 1 and promoted/relegated from division 2?

Alan Walton
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:33 pm
Location: Oldham

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Alan Walton » Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:43 pm

Hopefully not tempting any fate as we (3Cs) play them in Rd7, Brown Jack can still qualify for the Promotion Pool

So you get the following

(a) Brown Jack win 4.5-3.5, Guildford win (any score), Sussex lose by more than 3.5-4.5, then qualify with 3Cs (3), CU2 (3), G3 (4), BJ (2)
(b) Brown Jack win 4.5-3.5, Guildford win (any score), Sussex other result than above, then qualify with 3Cs (5), CU2/SM depends on result, G3 (2)
(c) Brown Jack win and Guildford don't win, then qualify 3Cs (3) CU2/SM depends on result, BJ (2)
(d) Brown fail to win, and Guildford lose, then qualify 3Cs (5), CU2/SM depends on result, AA (0)
(e) Brown fail to win, and Guildford don't lose, then qualify with 3Cs (5), CU2/SM depends on result, G3 (2)

So Pool A still has a few permutations

Jonathan Rogers
Posts: 4640
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:26 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm

"About this rule: "the rule disallowing three teams from the same squad in the same division" - do you know what would happen if a team was relegated from division 1, and another one promoted from division 3, joining a third team already in division 2 (all in the same squad)?"

No! This can't happen to anyone this season, can it? But I feel quite sure that the promoted third team would stay down, and the players would curse their first and second team.

"Any predictions for who will get relegated from division 1 and promoted/relegated from division 2?"

3Cs will go up to division one. That's all you're getting from me!

(I have just seen Alan's permutations - of course he is right, but I would be surprised if Guildford 3 v AA does not prove to be the key match).

User avatar
Christopher Kreuzer
Posts: 8806
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 2:34 am
Location: London

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:03 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote:"About this rule: "the rule disallowing three teams from the same squad in the same division" - do you know what would happen if a team was relegated from division 1, and another one promoted from division 3, joining a third team already in division 2 (all in the same squad)?"

No! This can't happen to anyone this season, can it?
Don't think so. Guildford 4 might get promoted.

Some of the team names are confusing.

You have "Witney Brown Jack" in division 3s and "Brown Jack Witney" in division 2a.

This list here:

http://www.4ncl.co.uk/1415_teams.htm

...gives: Brown Jack (for division 2) and Witney (for division 3).

But separate listings here:

http://www.4ncl.co.uk/registrations.htm
http://www.4nclresults.co.uk/2014-15/me ... t.html#brj
http://www.4nclresults.co.uk/2014-15/me ... t.html#wit

The two KJCA teams also seem to run as separate squads.

PS. Jonathan, it is "Sussex Martlets" not "Smartlets" (in your initial post).

Alan Walton
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:33 pm
Location: Oldham

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Alan Walton » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:28 pm

I agree that Spirit of Atticus should qualify, but results like 2.5-5.5 (loss) and Grantham win 6.5-1.5, would but Spirit out of the top 4 (due to Grantham beating Spirit)

Not in the realms of something extraordinary

Roger de Coverly
Posts: 21301
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Roger de Coverly » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:54 pm

Spirit ran up 6.5 points against Kings Head which is the highest score of the season in division 2b. This gives them a high total of board points if it comes down to tie breaks. Kings Head didn't help their cause by only having seven players including a junior with a low rating who lost rapidly. Did I mention the rapid mobile phone loss? Both teams were disrupted by the M40 and M1 closures, but Kings Head were three down before some of the players had arrived.

Jonathan Rogers
Posts: 4640
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 9:26 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:58 pm

Yes, the two were connected rather unfortunately for King's Head. One of their players (but not their captain) had his phone go off precisely because his late team mates were trying to contacting him ...

(We could discuss, but we might soon die of boredom)

MartinCarpenter
Posts: 3044
Joined: Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:05 pm

Not sure if Spirit count as a huge surprise package given how strong they've been.

Division 3? Well Div3N has turned really quite rough - Bradford DCA A have been weaker than they were in Div2 but they're only on fifty per cent without having lost any match I'd call a real shock. The second teams they lost too were rather more solid than even last season.

NE1 have done very well to get to 6/6 and I presume good promotion chances so long as they can keep fielding the same sorts of teams after the merger.

Guess the other likely candidates are the four teams with 10/12 in 3S although four teams with 9/12 too. Some mad scramble at the final weekend seems exceedingly likely.

David Robertson

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by David Robertson » Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:52 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Not sure if Spirit count as a huge surprise package given how strong they've been
Counts as a sizeable surprise to us, I can assure you. We've never gained as many points as this before. Hitherto, we've come on more strongly in Pool D, even when being narrowly relegated two years back. If - that's if - we reach Pool C, we'll be thoroughly delighted. And if we do, we'll carry a minimum 3 pts with us - which could make life interesting.

It must be said though, as Jonathan says above, that Div 2 is relentlessly competitive, top to bottom in each Pool. Teams are generally stronger than I recall from four/five years back. A typical example would be Barbican Youth yesterday - no 'gimme' on board 8 anymore. And yes, that was one hell of a match between us - six games deep into the fifth hour; four, deep into the sixth hour in a largely deserted hall. We were on the back foot in several of the final games. But resolute resistance keep things alive in most, but alas not all, our games; my fingerfehler bringing a sudden closure, but no injustice. The kids are impressive!

Richard Bates
Posts: 3338
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2008 8:27 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Richard Bates » Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:15 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Pool A

The stronger pool both in terms of the top teams and in terms of depth. (I have been saying for years, since 2000 in fact, that predicting the performance of teams for seeding purposes is a disastrous enterprise, which is why I was opposed to the pool system introduced in 2009 which puts particular reliance on it. Sometimes the pools look roughly even and turn out not to be so but in this case, it was surely always obvious that this was the stronger pool).
Do they actually do this anymore? I thought that these days seedings were based entirely on performance in the previous season (hence the issues with Barbican 1/2 this year). Not that this is any less susceptible to lopsided groups - the issue with division 1 this year has been almost entirely caused by Wood Green - if they were the strongest team in the division (as seeded) then the perceived respective strength of the groups would be somewhat different, if not actually reversed.

Neil Graham
Posts: 1939
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:36 pm

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Neil Graham » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:13 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Not sure if Spirit count as a huge surprise package given how strong they've been.

Division 3? Well Div3N has turned really quite rough - Bradford DCA A have been weaker than they were in Div2 but they're only on fifty per cent without having lost any match I'd call a real shock. The second teams they lost too were rather more solid than even last season.

NE1 have done very well to get to 6/6 and I presume good promotion chances so long as they can keep fielding the same sorts of teams after the merger.

Guess the other likely candidates are the four teams with 10/12 in 3S although four teams with 9/12 too. Some mad scramble at the final weekend seems exceedingly likely.
I can remember at one time Matt Lunn used to write excellent reports on the progress in Division Three. Unfortunately although easily the largest division it is now overlooked by the commentators, presumably because the teams are normal club players rather than the selection of GMs, IMs plus the occasional import who inhabit Division One. In Div Three South, four teams are tied on 10/12 after six games. Easily the most impressive performance has been by "The Rookies" who had scored 10/10 and beaten both strongly fancied "West is Best 1" and "Celtic Tigers 1" in reaching that score. Finally in Round Six "The Rookies" faced the highest rated team in the Division "Broadland Bitterns" (Av 2132) lead by IM Richard Polaczek and were beaten by a comprehensive 5-1 margin. The teams on 10/12 are Broadland Bitterns, The Rookies, Celtic Tigers I and Downend & Fishponds.

Alan Walton
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:33 pm
Location: Oldham

Re: 4NCL so far this season

Post by Alan Walton » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:35 pm

Neil, great speech but I would like to point out that 3Cs this year is a team of club players as well

With the exception of Stephen Gordon, who moved to London very recently (and played the previous season locally), everybody plays for the club in the Manchester League