World championship match in Astana
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Re: World championship match in Astana
But not for long. Repetition and a draw in 39 moves.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Any predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?
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Re: World championship match in Astana
probable draw, but it is a bit like the last game in the two Topalov matches - you could actually quite easily imagine either player winning it, albeit Ding more likely than Nepo. As to tie breaks, if this were to decide an ordinary tournament, I would probably back Nepo, but I think that all bets are off at the end of this long slugfest.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 matchChristopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:51 pmAny predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?
Any postings on here represent my personal views
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Re: World championship match in Astana
That statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.Mick Norris wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:44 pmI was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 matchChristopher Kreuzer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:51 pmAny predictions for the last classical game? Who would be favourite if it went to the tiebreaks?
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.
Moreover, wasn't Ding Liren the first GM to beat Magnus Carlsen in the rapid tiebreaks of a major tournament?
It was the Sinquefield Cup, Saint Louis 2019 if I recall correctly.
So, given that DIng has also White tomorrow, he should be considered favourite now perhaps.
Against that, he has never yet been ahead in this match.
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Are you confusing standard and rapid ratings? Ding has a rapid of 2829 and Nepo is 2761.Tim Harding wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:46 pmThat statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.Mick Norris wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:44 pm
I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.
Last edited by LawrenceCooper on Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
I reckon that Ding is slight favourite and I would be delighted if he won.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
There has only once before been a decisive game in the last scheduled game when the match stood even (Topalov v Anand). Too many draws to count.
If Ding were to win tomorrow, it would also (I think) be the first time that the winner (in normal time) was only ahead for the first time after the last decisive game in the match. (Although Korchnoi made a valiant effort in 1978).
If Ding were to win tomorrow, it would also (I think) be the first time that the winner (in normal time) was only ahead for the first time after the last decisive game in the match. (Although Korchnoi made a valiant effort in 1978).
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Re: World championship match in Astana
I am also backing Ding, though I have no problem with Nepo at all. It has been an extra element of this match, swinging one way or the other, whilst all the time there would be a certain contentment whatever happens.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
ExactlyLawrenceCooper wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:52 pmAre you confusing standard and rapid ratings? Ding has a rapid of 2829 and Nepo is 2761.Tim Harding wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:46 pmThat statement is incorrect. Ding lost a handful of points at the Tata Steel which dropped him below Nepo'.Mick Norris wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:44 pm
I was surprised to see that Ding has a higher rapid rating than Nepo, so I think this is still a 50-50 match
The FIDE ratings for April show Nepo at 2795 (his highest ever, from March 2023) and Ding 2788 but Ding's peak was 2811 and he had several months over 2800.
Any postings on here represent my personal views
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Ah yes, sorry, I overlooked the word "rapid" in Mick's statement.
Ding would have picked up quite a few points, I suppose, by winning two games against Magnus but I haven't checked.
In general I believe Ding is a much deeper and more rounded player than Nepo (who has always seemed much stronger than White and is reputedly dependent on others for opening novelties). It is Ding's psychological vulnerability at times which has kept this match so close, I think.
On another matter, is it widely known that Ian Nepomniachtchi bears (a version of) the name of a famous Czech saint (Saint John of Nepomuk)?
I don't recall hearing this mentioned in any chess commentary but of course I have only heard a fraction of it.
On the Charles Bridge in Prague there is a statue of the saint, who drowned when he was thrown from the bridge in 1393.
Ding would have picked up quite a few points, I suppose, by winning two games against Magnus but I haven't checked.
In general I believe Ding is a much deeper and more rounded player than Nepo (who has always seemed much stronger than White and is reputedly dependent on others for opening novelties). It is Ding's psychological vulnerability at times which has kept this match so close, I think.
On another matter, is it widely known that Ian Nepomniachtchi bears (a version of) the name of a famous Czech saint (Saint John of Nepomuk)?
I don't recall hearing this mentioned in any chess commentary but of course I have only heard a fraction of it.
On the Charles Bridge in Prague there is a statue of the saint, who drowned when he was thrown from the bridge in 1393.
Tim Harding
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
Historian and FIDE Arbiter
Author of 'Steinitz in London,' British Chess Literature to 1914', 'Joseph Henry Blackburne: A Chess Biography', and 'Eminent Victorian Chess Players'
http://www.chessmail.com
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Re: World championship match in Astana
I'm a bit concerned for Ding today (move 21) with black having just captured on g2.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Looking alright now 7 moves later after 28.Rc3. Ding now slightly ahead on the clock, but should be a draw. EDIT: Provided Ding works out he needs to stay active and not worry about being a pawn down in most lines.LawrenceCooper wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 12:22 pmI'm a bit concerned for Ding today (move 21) with black having just captured on g2.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Now at move 32. I would be nervous as White.
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Re: World championship match in Astana
Still going on!
Now a R/3Ps v R/2Ps ending that *should* be drawn.
Now a R/3Ps v R/2Ps ending that *should* be drawn.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)