2024 FIDE Candidates Toronto April 3-23

[Graham Borrowdale]

Pragg hasn't thrown away another big advantage, surely?

He didn’t, and it didn’t ever look likely, to me anyway, although once the position opened up after black’s e5 the two bishops looked strong.
Pragg is looking strong at the moment. Today’s last round of the first cycle sees him black against Caruana, who seems to have stayed below the radar so far, in a key game. It could be time for Caruana to make his move.
In the other Rd 7 games, Nakamura-Nepo could go either way, but I predict a draw.
Firouzja-Gukesh and Abasov-Vidit I will predict draws, but the thing about this tournament is that anyone can beat anyone, and if either of the players with the white pieces push too hard they could lose.

[LawrenceCooper]

Nakamura-Nepo was drawn, lots of theory apparantly, but still of some interest towards the end.

[LawrenceCooper]

Alireza wins a crazy game where he was very low on time (no increment) but outplayed Gukesh in a tense finish.

[Roger Lancaster]

Latest betting odds, for those interested in such matters: Nepomniachtchi 27/20, Caruana 11/4, Gukesh 13/4, Praggnanandhaa and Nakamura both 13/2, Vidit 25/1, Firouzja 100/1.

[LawrenceCooper]

GM Nepomniachtchi, Ian 2758 4.5
GM Caruana, Fabiano 2803 4
GM Praggnanandhaa R 2747 4
GM Gukesh D 2743 4
GM Nakamura, Hikaru 2789 3.5
GM Vidit, Santosh Gujrathi 2727 3.5
GM Firouzja, Alireza 2760 2.5
GM Abasov, Nijat 2632 2

[LawrenceCooper]

Alireza wins a crazy game where he was very low on time (no increment) but outplayed Gukesh in a tense finish.

https://twitter.com/chess24com/status/1 ... 1290307781 shows the final moments of the game.

[Mick Norris]

Trying to take stock of where we are at halfway, I've been looking at the last 2 Candidates, both won by Nepo

2022 Nepo was on +4, Caruana was +3, no-one else was in positive territory

Caruana fell away, and Nepo cruised to first with 6 draws and a win; however, Ding came through to second, and Naka was close too

2020 Nepo was on +2 with MVL, having just lost to him in round 7; no-one else was in positive territory; then there was the Covid break for a year, Nepo went on to win with a round to spare

There are more players in contention this time, so will be more interesting, although Nepo must still be favourite

[Jonathan Rogers]

Nepo is a large favourite and the odds cited by Roger above seem about right to me. I already gave my reasons after round five, and nothing much has changed, except that Nepo has now survived another onslaught as Black against a well prepared opponent, this one with perhaps a bit more experience and more likely to convert any winning position that might be reached. If Nepo is not losing those games, when will he lose? He only lost two games in the first two candidates' events even, and in real terms perhaps only one, since the other was in the last round in 2021 by which time he had already won. The "loss in real terms" was against MVL, and that was from a French Defence, which he has clearly now abandoned, successfully, for the Petroff.

In case it matters, discussing who might finish second, on the other hand, seems very interesting!

[Brian Beattie]

To me an essential contributing factor to success in 2022 and probably 2024 is which version of Firouzja shows up to play against you.

[LawrenceCooper]

Nakamura 1 Caruana 0.
Vidit 0 Gukesh 1.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Potentially four players within half a point of each other with 6 rounds to go. Caruana not out of it, but that is a big setback.

[LawrenceCooper]

Potentially four players within half a point of each other with 6 rounds to go. Caruana not out of it, but that is a big setback.

A similar story in the women with Tan declining repetition and going on to lose: Three on 5/8 and Lagno half behind.

[Mick Norris]

That's the first game that Abasov hasn't lost with black

[LawrenceCooper]

That's the first game that Abasov hasn't lost with black

Maybe he'll have a decisive game with white next, especially as Caruana will be desperate to bounce back from his loss to Nakamura.

[Mick Norris]

That feels like a must win for Caruana but Abasov has shut down his white games somewhat

Nepo probably surprised to be in the lead despite not beating Abasov