2800+ Elo Average for 2nd Sinquefield Cup

[Roger de Coverly]

If Caruana scores 10/10, what would his new live rating be?

Doesn't live rating use the same formula as regular rating, so start ratings are always taken from the FIDE list? According to the cross table at the chessbase site, he has gained 25 points so far, so another 5/5 gets him another 25. By general reasoning, he's playing a field with an average of about his pre tournament rating. That would make his expected score two and a half. As he is outperforming that by 2.5, that makes his rating change 25 at K=10.

[Graham Borrowdale]

I expect Caruana to coast with draws in the second half of the tournament, hotly pursued by Carlsen. Aronian needs some damage limitation.

[Mick Norris]

Yes, both the sites have Caruana as +25 for the 5 wins
http://top40chess.com/
and
http://2700chess.com/

On either, you can click on Caruana (or the magnifying glass in the latter) to see the individual calculations

Caruana is number 1 in rapid, but only 2695 in blitz

Amazing performance so far, not sure he will be happy that today is a rest day, I'm sure he won't win the 5 games in the second half

[Jonathan Bryant]

... but only 2695 in blitz

What a patzer!

[PeterFarr]

Caruana destroying Topalov and about to go 6/6. Amazing.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Ah, I was wondering why there were no results yet. Forgot the time difference...

Anyone taking bets on 10/10?

(I presume that Caruana will qualify easily by rating for the next Candidates Tournament?)

[Chris Rice]

If Caruana gains another half point in round 7 he will clinch clear first place with three rounds to go. He's also closing in on what is often considered to be the greatest individual performance of all time. Anatoly Karpov's 1994 undefeated score at Linares (11/13).

Round 6 Standings: Caruana 6pts/6, Topalov, Carlsen 3pts, Vachier-Lagrave 2pts, Aronian and Nakamura 1.5pts.

Round 7 Vachier-Lagrave-Caruana, Carlsen-Nakamura, Topalov-Aronian.

http://www.chess.com/news/caruana-demol ... again-8004

[Mick Norris]

Round 6 Standings: Caruana 6pts/6, Topalov, Carlsen 3pts, Vachier-Lagrave 2pts, Aronian and Nakamura 1.5pts.

Although the TWIC article says that, the actual position is Carlsen 3, Topalov & MVL 2.5, Nakamura & Aronian 2 I think

http://www.thechessmind.net/
http://www.chess.com/news/caruana-demol ... again-8004
http://www.theweekinchess.com/chessnews ... efield-cup
http://uschesschamps.com/pairings-results-1

[Mick Norris]

(I presume that Caruana will qualify easily by rating for the next Candidates Tournament?)

FIDE do tend to change the rules a lot, but assuming that the format ends up as something similar, you would expect it to be Loser of WC match 2014 (if it takes place), 2 by rating (averaged over a couple of lists), a couple from the new GP series, a couple from the knockout World Cup and maybe an organisers wild card (subject to a minimum rating, which I think was 2725 last time)

Alternatively, it might be Anand - Karjakin in Sochi and Carlsen - Caruana match in St Louis, who knows

[Lewis Martin]

It is theoretically possible for Caruana to number 1 and Carlsen to be number 2! Caruana can go up to 2850-odd if he keeps winning, and if Carlsen loses a few more....

Unlikely of course, but not a position we would have considered at the start of the tournament!

[PeterFarr]

Caruana looking good for 7/7; can't exactly recall the last time I saw a white king on c3 on move 18 of a QGD. It's not just the fact of the score, it's that he's making the rest of them look like amateurs.

Carlsen smashing Nakamura, he would be having a good tournament if it wasn't for Fabiano...

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Wow. Seriously, did anyone take a bet out for 10/10? I wonder how much the odds have shortened? If Caruana goes to 7/7 (I think he is playing MVL), the three he has left to face are Nakamura, Carlsen and Aronian.

[PeterFarr]

Yes he's playing MVL. You'd perhaps think he could have coasted in with draws quite easily from round 5 onwards, but he's going for everything; 4th black I think too.

[Roger de Coverly]

Caruana looking good for 7/7; can't exactly recall the last time I saw a white king on c3 on move 18 of a QGD.

Just played through the opening.

1.d4 d5 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Be7 4. Bf4 Nf6 5. e3 O-O 6. Rc1 Nbd7 7. c5

As someone who learned the QGD from "Logical Chess Move by Move" and Alekhine games, you could perhaps imagine the condemnation Chernev would have given to White's seventh. Not that Chernev was always right.

[Chris Rice]

Nigel Short "Whatever Fabio Caruana is taking I want lots of it!"

We're now witnessing something that is scarcely credible. Caruana who is now on 7/7 has gained 34.1 Elo so far and has reached 2835 on the live ratings 31 points behind Carlsen's 2866. This run of wins against players exclusively in the top 10 in the world is now without precedent. Lewis's suggestion above that's its theoretically possible for the players to reverse being 1 and 2 is still on if Caruana can get to 10/10, what a shock to the chess world that would be.

The amazing thing is Carlsen is playing well too so a Carlsen-Caruana match for the world title now, say in the US, would easily attract massive sponsorship. Carlsen's got till Sunday (7/9) to sign off on the Anand match or he'll get replaced by Karjakin. Would anyone now take an Anand-Karjakin match for the world title seriously? Not a chance.

Back to St Louis and who is Caruana's round 8 opponent? Carlsen. In football manager parlance its a massive, massive game.

http://www.chess.com/news/touchdown-car ... e-7-0-8651