Carlsen - Anand 2014

[Jonathan Bryant]

... who would you put together in a tournament to decide the next challenger for Carlsen?

Good question. Depends on what you’re trying to achieve. Who deserves the slot - the best eight current players IMHO or who has the best chances of winning a match against Carlsen? Obvs there’ll be some overlap here, but not always. E.g. Topalov and Kramnik and Anand, I would agree have limited chances of actually winning a match against Carlsen, but you’d be hard pressed to justify them not getting in the tournament.

I"m talking about current standings there.


Anyhoo,

Caruana,
Grischuk
Nakamura

would be on my 'have the best (not necessarily high) chance of winning the match' list.



Topalov
Kramnik
Anand

would be in my 'deserve to be there but I find it hard to imagine would seriously worry Carlsen' group.

Then there’s Aronian, who I think might be in the first group except for the fact that he’s already not got out of three Candidates’ events and I wonder if his best chance has already gone.

[Nick Burrows]

From Vishy's twitter..

https://twitter.com/vishy64theking

The last few years playing world championship matches almost every year from 2007 has been tough. You have this opponent waiting for you. In 2011 2012 I would have liked to change things in my chess and made some attempts. But knowing there is a match your play is aimed at it. Well chess politics or the system gave me the title shots of my career at a go. I was lucky to be in that position but found it difficult to ride on both horses. I was able to correct that in early 2013 but succumbed to preparation mode. I think 2008 my work was most efficient. In 2010 I coped best under the situation. 2012 I held on . 2013 I would say I worked hardest and thats what hurt me the most. 2014 I found a good equilibrium of not overdoing work but my seconds keep telling me go chill . Modern chess is very complex and sometimes U cant control every aspect. I still remember in the 80s i would read a chess book have an idea and go play. Today an idea is maybe 3 weeks of work with many seconds . I will soon play in london and look forward to some fun on the board and also meeting friends.

[Rob Thompson]

I would also be tempted to include Rapport as someone who could challenge Carlsen but may not get into the Candidates.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

From Vishy's twitter..

https://twitter.com/vishy64theking

[I thought some people were sceptical that this was an official Twitter account?]

Judging from the amount being tweeted, he may want to start thinking about a blog? Speaking of which, Carlsen's online blogging for the WCC:

http://www.arcticsec.no/index.php?blog_ ... n_image=35
http://www.arcticsec.no/index.php?blog_ ... n_image=35
http://www.arcticsec.no/index.php?blog_ ... n_image=35

Note that the second link is written in the third person by Carlsen's father (Magnus clearly concentrating on the match). The third link namechecks the seconds already mentioned elsewhere: Jon Ludvig Hammer, Laurent Fressinet and Michael Adams.

[Graham Borrowdale]

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/shortc ... encounters

The 'five months' there for chess calculates the time differently. The tennis and cricket ones are times spent actually playing. Has anyone calculated how long K&K spent actually at the board (roughly) in those five months?

Well, roughly speaking, 48 games at 4 hours each would be 192 hours, or 8 days. If I remember, there were quite a few short draws, so maybe 6 days at the board?
For what its worth, my competitive chess over the last 40 years has only taken about 5 months actually at the board - a lot less than I would have thought.


On the 2016 Candidates, remember that things can change very quickly - look at the leap made by Caruana over the last 12 months.

[Mick Norris]

... who would you put together in a tournament to decide the next challenger for Carlsen?

Good question. Depends on what you’re trying to achieve. Who deserves the slot - the best eight current players IMHO or who has the best chances of winning a match against Carlsen? Obvs there’ll be some overlap here, but not always. E.g. Topalov and Kramnik and Anand, I would agree have limited chances of actually winning a match against Carlsen, but you’d be hard pressed to justify them not getting in the tournament.

I"m talking about current standings there.


Anyhoo,

Caruana,
Grischuk
Nakamura

would be on my 'have the best (not necessarily high) chance of winning the match' list.



Topalov
Kramnik
Anand

would be in my 'deserve to be there but I find it hard to imagine would seriously worry Carlsen' group.

Then there’s Aronian, who I think might be in the first group except for the fact that he’s already not got out of three Candidates’ events and I wonder if his best chance has already gone.

I actually think Kramnik could trouble Carlsen in a match and Nakamura would have no chance

Grischuk has no experience, but could get help from Kramnik, Svidler, etc, so that would be very interesting

Aronian has played short matches against Kramnik and now Nakamura, and if his nerves were ok could trouble Carlsen

Caruana most likely to qualify and most likely to beat Carlsen, I'd put Karjakin second favourite to qualify

I'd like to see MVL in the Candidates, and Andreikin too - Wei Ye would be good

[Nick Burrows]

I actually think Kramnik could trouble Carlsen in a match and Nakamura would have no chance

Grischuk has no experience, but could get help from Kramnik, Svidler, etc, so that would be very interesting

Aronian has played short matches against Kramnik and now Nakamura, and if his nerves were ok could trouble Carlsen

Caruana most likely to qualify and most likely to beat Carlsen, I'd put Karjakin second favourite to qualify

Just about how I see it.

[Jonathan Bryant]

I actually think Kramnik could trouble Carlsen in a match and Nakamura would have no chance.

I don’t really rate Nakamura’s chances either, tbh, but he’s on the way up and Kramnik - I’m afraid to say as he’s one my favourite players - is going the other way. Two more years and I think Naka’s chances will be better. But not necessarily high.


Incidentally Olimpiu Urcan has a rather amusing take on the prospect of Anand qualifying for another match in 2016. If that happens, he suggests, Vishy should lose the Tiger of Madras nickname, and become the Cat With 9 Lives instead.

[Stephen Saunders]

I haven't really followed top flight chess for the last ten years (or more!) but are Leko and Radjabov busted flushes as far as the title is concerned?

Must admit I would love to see Anatoly Karpov making a comeback and crushing Carlsen....

[MartinCarpenter]

Leko seems to be - somehow vanished from really strong tournaments etc - Radjabov I guess not in principle but iirc he's lost a few rather bad games against Carlsen?

[Roger de Coverly]

Leko seems to be - somehow vanished from really strong tournaments etc - Radjabov I guess not in principle but iirc he's lost a few rather bad games against Carlsen?

They are currently ranked 20th and 21st. Radjabov was ranked fourth around eighteen months ago, Leko dropped out of the top ten, five years ago.

As Azerbaijan is often a possible sponsor or even venue for the Candidates, Radjabov's qualification as host nominee is always possible. Equally you could envisage him reaching the finals of the World Cup. Both he and Leko would have a lot of ground to make up in order to qualify by rating.

[Jonathan Bryant]

... Anatoly Karpov making a comeback and crushing Carlsen....

Karpov’s chances are only marginally lower than Leko’s.

Radjabov might yet do something - the fact that he currently has a a rating similar to the Hungarian’s. Wouldn’t bet on it though. Although a helping hand into the candidates’ and who knows?

[Arshad Ali]

I haven't really followed top flight chess for the last ten years (or more!) but are Leko and Radjabov busted flushes as far as the title is concerned?

Probably not Leko. He plays technical chess par excellence -- which is simultaneously his strength and his weakness. Maybe not Radjabov either. Neither of them quite has what it takes to be a credible challenger. Maybe Caruana ...?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Must admit I would love to see Anatoly Karpov making a comeback and crushing Carlsen....

If that is serious, I'd love to see a Kasparov-Carlsen match!

[Arshad Ali]

It's all over for Anand now. He's run out of road. By the end of the next WC cycle, he'll be 46. That's too old at this level. And I doubt he'd been keen to rejoin a doomed battle with a maturing 25 year old Carlsen anyway, not that Caruana et al will allow him the opportunity.

Probably. But I think he'll continuing playing indefinitely. As far as I know he's not trained to do anything else. And I expect him to remain among the group of leading GMs indefinitely and to fade but slowly.