2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez

[Alex McFarlane]

it does seem a bit of a shame to clash with one of the few FIDE rated events

More of a shame when it clashes with TWO FIDE rated events.

[Stewart Reuben]

Thank you.

[Mick Norris]

Dan now playing in Serbia

Results

[Roger de Coverly]

Dan now playing in Serbia

I see his brother playing as well, plus WLS players, Tim Kett and Carl Strugnell ( previously of France).

[LawrenceCooper]

Dan now playing in Serbia

Results

Another great result in round 6 ensuring he plays a third GM in round 7
http://chess-results.com/tnr171274.aspx ... 984&snr=11

[LawrenceCooper]

Draw today so 5.5/7 and all to play for in the last two rounds.

[LawrenceCooper]

Live games here: http://www.starisajt20052014.sah-centra ... 15/tfd.htm with other info here: http://www.paracinchess.rs/home_en.html

[LawrenceCooper]

Draw today so 5.5/7 and all to play for in the last two rounds.

A loss in round 8 so 1/1 against a 2469+ if the pairings fall kindly for him.

[JustinHorton]

Which it appears they have not done.

[Mike Truran]

Hey ho. Shouldn't have lost in round 8 then.

Light blue touch paper and retire......

[Stewart Reuben]

Daniel Fernandez is Rated 2472 in the July list. I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm.
Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.
Of course, if a player takes part in such tournaments, he is very likely to improve and it becomes more likely he will get the norms.

[IM Jack Rudd]

I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm. Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.

No, they couldn't. That requires more information than the FIDE rating system gives (you'd need the actual probabilities of a win, draw and loss, not just the expected score).

[Mick Norris]

Pity Dan lost, but he is still gaining rating points which would take him closer to 2500 - hopefully he can finish with a win

[Brian Towers]

I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm. Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.

No, they couldn't. That requires more information than the FIDE rating system gives (you'd need the actual probabilities of a win, draw and loss, not just the expected score).

Why is that, Jack?

I admit both you and Stewart almost certainly know a lot more about what you need to do to get a GM norm but I'd guess that given a certain average level of opposition you need at least a certain score. Given your expected score (the mean of the distribution) and the standard deviation (available to somebody who knows the maths of the Elo rating system and the strength of the opposition) then surely it is relatively straightforward, mathematically speaking, to calculate the probability of getting a norm? What am I missing or misunderstanding?

[IM Jack Rudd]

Given your expected score (the mean of the distribution) and the standard deviation (available to somebody who knows the maths of the Elo rating system and the strength of the opposition) then surely it is relatively straightforward, mathematically speaking, to calculate the probability of getting a norm? What am I missing or misunderstanding?

The big problem is that it's a weird nonlinear system and the two halves of it don't match up. Your expected score against a particular set of opponents works on a game-by-game basis, whereas a title norm works on the average rating of the whole field.

Here's a nice example of the problem (my thanks to Richard Bates for this one). A 2450 - who, if the system is working correctly, should have an expected chance of getting an IM norm of almost bang on 50% - plays a field of six 2450s and three 2050s. His expected score against those opponents is (0.5*6)+(0.92*3) = 5.76; he will gain rating points if he scores 6. But his field is only 2317, and 6/9 is not good enough for an IM norm against a 2317 field; he needs 6½. Thus he needs to do better than a result which in itself has a probability of below 50% to get a norm which he should be getting 50% of the time.