More of a shame when it clashes with TWO FIDE rated events.Mike Truran wrote: it does seem a bit of a shame to clash with one of the few FIDE rated events
2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Thank you.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Any postings on here represent my personal views
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
I see his brother playing as well, plus WLS players, Tim Kett and Carl Strugnell ( previously of France).Mick Norris wrote:Dan now playing in Serbia
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Another great result in round 6 ensuring he plays a third GM in round 7
http://chess-results.com/tnr171274.aspx ... 984&snr=11
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Draw today so 5.5/7 and all to play for in the last two rounds.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Live games here: http://www.starisajt20052014.sah-centra ... 15/tfd.htm with other info here: http://www.paracinchess.rs/home_en.html
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
A loss in round 8 so 1/1 against a 2469+ if the pairings fall kindly for him.LawrenceCooper wrote:Draw today so 5.5/7 and all to play for in the last two rounds.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Which it appears they have not done.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Hey ho. Shouldn't have lost in round 8 then.
Light blue touch paper and retire......
Light blue touch paper and retire......
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Daniel Fernandez is Rated 2472 in the July list. I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm.
Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.
Of course, if a player takes part in such tournaments, he is very likely to improve and it becomes more likely he will get the norms.
Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.
Of course, if a player takes part in such tournaments, he is very likely to improve and it becomes more likely he will get the norms.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
No, they couldn't. That requires more information than the FIDE rating system gives (you'd need the actual probabilities of a win, draw and loss, not just the expected score).Stewart Reuben wrote:I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm. Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Pity Dan lost, but he is still gaining rating points which would take him closer to 2500 - hopefully he can finish with a win
Any postings on here represent my personal views
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
Why is that, Jack?IM Jack Rudd wrote:No, they couldn't. That requires more information than the FIDE rating system gives (you'd need the actual probabilities of a win, draw and loss, not just the expected score).Stewart Reuben wrote:I think I once saw a note by Professor Elo that somebody rated 100 points below the TPR required, in this case 2600, had a 1 in 7 chance of getting a GM norm. Somebody more up on probability theory than me could work it out.
I admit both you and Stewart almost certainly know a lot more about what you need to do to get a GM norm but I'd guess that given a certain average level of opposition you need at least a certain score. Given your expected score (the mean of the distribution) and the standard deviation (available to somebody who knows the maths of the Elo rating system and the strength of the opposition) then surely it is relatively straightforward, mathematically speaking, to calculate the probability of getting a norm? What am I missing or misunderstanding?
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.
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Re: 2nd GM norm for Daniel Fernandez
The big problem is that it's a weird nonlinear system and the two halves of it don't match up. Your expected score against a particular set of opponents works on a game-by-game basis, whereas a title norm works on the average rating of the whole field.Brian Towers wrote:Given your expected score (the mean of the distribution) and the standard deviation (available to somebody who knows the maths of the Elo rating system and the strength of the opposition) then surely it is relatively straightforward, mathematically speaking, to calculate the probability of getting a norm? What am I missing or misunderstanding?
Here's a nice example of the problem (my thanks to Richard Bates for this one). A 2450 - who, if the system is working correctly, should have an expected chance of getting an IM norm of almost bang on 50% - plays a field of six 2450s and three 2050s. His expected score against those opponents is (0.5*6)+(0.92*3) = 5.76; he will gain rating points if he scores 6. But his field is only 2317, and 6/9 is not good enough for an IM norm against a 2317 field; he needs 6½. Thus he needs to do better than a result which in itself has a probability of below 50% to get a norm which he should be getting 50% of the time.