Qualification for Candidates tournament 2016

[Mick Norris]

You're welcome - would aid speculation about the wildcard if Tim Harding would let us know where the Candidates will be

[Tim Harding]

You're welcome - would aid speculation about the wildcard if Tim Harding would let us know where the Candidates will be

All I know is that the only bids are from European countries.

[Mick Norris]

You're welcome - would aid speculation about the wildcard if Tim Harding would let us know where the Candidates will be

All I know is that the only bids are from European countries.

Tim

That's fine, I would assume a European player will get the wildcard then

Any idea when the venue will be announced?

[Leonard Barden]

According to John Henderson's online column, which is generally well informed, the candidates venue is likely to be Khanty-Mansiysk, with the world championship match being held in the United States.

[Mick Norris]

Ok, that would be a Russian wildcard presumably then

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Are there any permutations in which no Russians qualify for the Candidates? If Jakovenko wins through to a quarter-final against Nakamura, he will have to either win QF and SF, or lose and hope Nakamura wins his SF (if they had met in the SF, that would have ensured Jakovenko qualified). As it is, there are permutations where Jakovenko doesn't qualify (both he and Nakamura go out before final). Svidler and at least one other Russian will be in the QF. But again, all might go out before the final. If Giri also goes out, that closes off the rating qualification route for Kramnik/Grischuk. So the Russians might well end up relying on a wild card! Which would be pretty amazing if you think about it. How far back would you have to go to find a Candidates Tournament with no Russians (or Soviets)? Maybe that has never happened?

[Thinking on it some more, it is very unlikely, as the odds are high on a Russian (Svidler) facing Giri in one SF and a Russian facing Nakamura in the other, hence a Russian would qualify one way or another. Unless China eliminate Svidler and MVL eliminates Giri. And Mamedyarov eliminates one Russian and then eliminates Nakamura, who eliminates a Russian as well.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Che ... nship_2016

Does anyone know what this 'Los Angeles 2016 Organizing Committee' and its proposals are about?

[IM Jack Rudd]

No previous Candidates' tournament has had no Russians, although Curacao 1962 comes close: the five USSR representatives were Petrosian (Armenian), Keres (Estonian), Geller (Ukrainian), Tal (Latvian) and Korchnoi (Russian, but later defected to Switzerland).

[Mick Norris]

Jakovenko out of the WC, so now relying on Nakamura reaching the WC final

Giri through, so the 3rd rating spot still a possible route for Kramnik/Grischuk

[Mick Norris]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Che ... nship_2016

Does anyone know what this 'Los Angeles 2016 Organizing Committee' and its proposals are about?

No - WC match in LA with Candidates in San Francisco would be interesting

[Mick Norris]

To update my earlier post following Nakamura's exit & Giri's exit & now Eljanov's from the WC:

We are closer to knowing the 8 Candidates (if they accept their offered places)

Priority order:
1. Anand
2. WC finalists (i.e. 2 players) - we now know that Svidler is 1 of these and Karjakin is the other
3. Fide Grand Prix - we now know that Caruana is 1 of these and Nakamura is the other
4. Average ratings - we now know that Topalov is 1 of these - Giri is almost certain to be the other
5. Wild card

Jakovenko is the first alternate, so if for example Topalov decides not to play in the Candidates, then Jakovenko replaces him - the second alternate would, as far as I can tell, be the non-qualifier with the best average rating (i.e. Kramnik or Grischuk)

[Tim Harding]

To update my earlier post following Nakamura's exit & Giri's exit from the WC:

We are closer to knowing the 8 Candidates (if they accept their offered places)

Priority order:
1. Anand
2. WC finalists (i.e. 2 players) - we now know that Svidler is 1 of these
3. Fide Grand Prix - we now know that Caruana is 1 of these and Nakamura is the other
4. Average ratings - we now know that Topalov is 1 of these - Giri is almost certain to be the other
5. Wild card

Jakovenko is the first alternate, so if for example Topalov decides not to play in the Candidates, then Jakovenko replaces him - the second alternate would, as far as I can tell, be the non-qualifier with the best average rating (i.e. Kramnik or Grischuk)

So the most likely line-up for the Candidates is:
Anand, Svidler, Karjakin, Caruana, Nakamura (all qualified)
Topalov (a certainty on rating)
Giri (very likely on rating)
plus wild card.

(With Jakovenko as first reserve if any of the above drop out.)

My guess is that Azerbaijan may submit the winning bid (entries close 6 October) and nominate Mamedyarov. As was pointed out today, they sponsored (though they didn't host) the London candidates and nominated Radjabov.

Dirk Jan ten Geuzendam hinted today in the commentary that the US may bid after all, presumably to get Wesley So in, but I am doutbful. I don't see him as a credible challenger anyway; maybe in a later cycle.

So it is unlikely Kramnik will get in unless Russia win the Candidates, in which case he or Grischuk would presumably get their nomination. Maybe Kramnik's not bothered anyway.

[Mick Norris]

So the most likely line-up for the Candidates is:
Anand, Svidler, Karjakin, Caruana, Nakamura (all qualified)
Topalov (a certainty on rating)
Giri (very likely on rating)
plus wild card.

(With Jakovenko as first reserve if any of the above drop out.)

My guess is that Azerbaijan may submit the winning bid (entries close 6 October) and nominate Mamedyarov. As was pointed out today, they sponsored (though they didn't host) the London candidates and nominated Radjabov.

Dirk Jan ten Geuzendam hinted today in the commentary that the US may bid after all, presumably to get Wesley So in, but I am doutbful. I don't see him as a credible challenger anyway; maybe in a later cycle.

So it is unlikely Kramnik will get in unless Russia win the Candidates, in which case he or Grischuk would presumably get their nomination. Maybe Kramnik's not bothered anyway.

Tim, I think Kramnik would like a last go, and if, as Leonard suggests, Khanty gets the Candidates, then he may well do so to join Svidler and Karjakin

If it isn't a Russian, then rounds 1 and 8 of the Candidates would be Svidler v Karjakin and Caruana v Nakamura - if Kramnik or So get the wild card, then rounds 1,2,3 and 8,9,10 would have the all Russian/US clashes

Candidates you list are currently numbers 2,3,4,5,6,11 & 20 in the live ratings - Aronian is 7, Kramnik 9, Grischuk 14, Mamedyarov 17

[Mick Norris]

So the most likely line-up for the Candidates is:
Anand, Svidler, Karjakin, Caruana, Nakamura (all qualified)
Topalov (a certainty on rating)
Giri (very likely on rating)
plus wild card.

(With Jakovenko as first reserve if any of the above drop out.)

Giri is playing at the Euro Club Cup 18-24 Oct (with his closest challengers Kramnik & Grischuk, as well as Topalov), then Bilbao Masters 26 Oct - 1 Nov, then the Euro Team Champs 12-22 Nov (with Grischuk)

The first event will affect the Nov rating for all 3, so is more significant, but unless Giri has a nightmare he should still have a good average rating lead - the latter 2 events only affect the Dec rating, and again unless Giri has a nightmare he should be ok

Kramnik & Grischuk would then be vying for the 2nd reserve spot, which is hardly anything at all, and waiting for a possible wildcard

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Someone mentioned a possible Mamedyarov-Radjabov match to decide the wildcard if an Azeri bid is successful. A Kramnik-Grischuk match to decide a Russian wildcard would be nice as well, but maybe less likely? Personally, I think of those four, Kramnik would be the one to round out an ideal Candidate's line-up. Ivanchuk is the top player that I'd most miss, but maybe the 2012 Candidates was his swansong at this level? (Not withstanding his excellent result in the 2015 Blitz World Championships.)

[Mick Norris]

Anyone who is going to prepare properly to make the Candidates balanced is fine - based on last time, that's not Chucky - if Radjabov has recovered from whatever the problem was for him previously, then seeing him have another go would be fine

I'd like to see Vlad have a final go though