Predict the World Cup results and become famous ...

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I got 4/8, which is not that good, but still better than John McK! Did anyone score 6 or above?

Time to do the predictions for the quarter-finals soon.

[John McKenna]

Since Chessbase got 6/8 they are the ones to beat.

[JustinHorton]

WEI
GIR
NAK
MAM

[Christopher Kreuzer]

From R1 to the quarter-finals is non-stop. Chess every day. The rest days are between the QFs and the SFs and the SFs and the final:

http://www.bakuworldcup2015.com/content/45

Have any of the QF players been playing for 12 days in a row, and which of the quarter-finalists have played the most games? Should be easy to work out (ages in brackets below):

Peter Svidler (39) - 12 games - none of his matches went beyond the fourth game - 2 rest days.
Wei Yi (16) - 18 games - taken to an eighth game by Vovk in round 2 - 2 rest days.
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (24) - 12 games - only went beyond classical time limit in round 3 (six games) - 3 rest days.
Anish Giri (21) - 12 games - like Svidler none of his matches went beyond the fourth game - 2 rest days.
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (30) - 10 games - only went beyond classical time limit in round 2 (four games) - 3 rest days.
Sergey Karjakin (25) - 14 games - taken to six games in round 2 against Onischuk - 2 rest days
Pavel Eljanov (32) - 10 games - only went beyond classical time limit in round 4 (four games) - 3 rest days.
Hikaru Nakamura (27) - 17 games - only quarter-finalist to have played an Armageddon game (round 3) - 2 rest days

What effect does number of games and rest days (by winning in the classical phase) have on the respective prospects of the quarter-finalists? All of them have had some rest days. If you go by that, then Svidler would be favourite against Wei Yi, and Vachier-Lagrave favourite against Giri, and Mamedyarov favourite against Karjakin, and Eljanov favourite against Nakamura. Hmm. I might just go with those as my picks...

EDIT: forgot to include the ages of the quarter-finalists - added above. Some combination of age, seeding, rating and relative performance so far should actually be a good predictor for the results. Svidler by far the oldest (nearly 40), Eljanov and Mamedyarov are in their 30s. Nakamura, Karjakin and Vachier-Lagrave in their mid-20s. Giri and Wei Yi the youngest, with Wei Yi only a teenager and playing someone more than twice his age!

[LawrenceCooper]

Anyone who knows me knows how bad I am at predictions so here goes:

Topalov v Shanghei Liu

Svidler v Radjabov

Wesley So v Le Quang Liem

Tomashevsky v Vachier-Lagrave

Nakamura v Nepomniachtchi

Adams v Dominguez Perez

Kramnik v Andreikin

Winners in bold, I also think Chelsea will beat Arsenal today but hope I'm wrong with that too

Svidler Peter (RUS) vs Topalov Veselin (BUL) [*]
Nakamura Hikaru (USA) vs Adams Michael (ENG) [*]
Mamedyarov Shakhriyar (AZE) vs Caruana Fabiano (USA) [*]
Giri Anish (NED) vs Wojtaszek Radoslaw (POL) [*]
Vachier-Lagrave Maxime (FRA) vs So Wesley (USA) [*][/b]
Andreikin Dmitry (RUS) vs Karjakin Sergey (RUS) [*][/b]
Jakovenko Dmitry (RUS) vs Eljanov Pavel (UKR) [*][/b]
Ding Liren (CHN) vs Wei Yi (CHN) [*]

1. Svidler vs. Wei Yi
2. Giri vs. Vachier-Lagrave
3. Nakamura vs. Eljanov
4. Mamedyarov vs. Karjakin

[John McKenna]

From R1 to the quarter-finals is non-stop. Chess every day. The rest days are between the QFs and the SFs and the SFs and the final:

http://www.bakuworldcup2015.com/content/45

Have any of the QF players been playing for 12 days in a row, and which of the quarter-finalists have played the most games? Should be easy to work out...

What effect does number of games and rest days (by winning in the classical phase) have on the respective prospects of the quarter-finalists? All of them have had some rest days. If you go by that, then Svidler would be favourite against Wei Yi, and Vachier-Lagrave favourite against Giri, and Mamedyarov favourite against Karjakin, and Eljanov favourite against Nakamura. Hmm. I might just go with those as my picks...

EDIT: forgot to include the ages of the quarter-finalists - added above. Some combination of age, seeding, rating and relative performance so far should actually be a good predictor for the results. Svidler by far the oldest (nearly 40), Eljanov and Mamedyarov are in their 30s. Nakamura, Karjakin and Vachier-Lagrave in their mid-20s. Giri and Wei Yi the youngest, with Wei Yi only a teenager and playing someone more than twice his age!

That's why I'm supporting Svidler (and MVL for one more round) - if he can win an event like this there's still hope.

If Wei wins I can see FIDE lowering the age restriction to over forty-fives for the Seniors World Ch.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I think that Loz got 6/8, matching ChessBase - and he would probably have got 7/8 if Ding Liren had found f2-f3 at the right moment today.

But my goodness, Yi: such nerves of steel at 16 - that really does remind one of Carlsen.

Predictions for tomorrow:

1. Svidler vs. Wei Yi (but this for me is the hardest, perhaps because I had tipped them both to lose the previous round!)
2. Giri vs. Vachier-Lagrave (also not so clear, though. Just a hunch. Both have played very well so far).
3. Nakamura vs. Eljanov
4. Mamedyarov vs. Karjakin

[David Robertson]

Oh well.....

1. Svidler v. Wei Yi (a child blessed with genius)
2. Giri v. Vachier-Lagrave (too hard to call; but call, one must)
3. Nakamura v. Eljanov (nailed on; no idea how he always prevails)
4. Mamedyarov v. Karjakin (meh to both; but double-meh to the Putin fan)

[John McKenna]

That's Justin H's "WEI/GIR/NAK/MAM" with side orders.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Chessbase predict Svidler, MVL, Mamedyarov and Nakamura. They seem to think that Karjakin is still Ukrainian though (!)

[Matthew Turner]

I didn't do very well predicting the last round so here we go again.

1. Svidler - I think a lot of Wei Yi's success is down to awesome preparation. I am predicting that Svidler will have the savvy to sidestep it and experience will prevail.
2. Giri - He seems to be someone who just enjoys playing. I think that relaxed attitude will really help at an event like this, so I am predicting he'll handle the pressure better
3. Eljanov - Finally emerging after being a committed second to Gelfand - I think he is set to really push on
4. Mamedyarov - More creative than his opponent so he'll find a way to win, even if it ends up being quite an ugly way.

[Mick Norris]

2. Giri - He seems to be someone who just enjoys playing. I think that relaxed attitude will really help at an event like this, so I am predicting he'll handle the pressure better

Giri is under less pressure as he probably has a place at the Candidates anyway, like Nakamura who is definitely in, whereas the others need to win 2 matches to qualify

[JustinHorton]

Also see David Smerdon

Edit: think this is in the wrong thread!

[Jonathan Rogers]

... and with one confirmed result (Eljanov beating Naka), Matt Turner is already in the clear lead in the prediction stakes, perhaps as sole leader in the whole world!

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Um, I predicted an Eljanov win as well... MVL is however clinging on by his fingernails (though I have no idea about rook endings). Hopefully three matches will head into tiebreaks tomorrow.