2016 Candidates prediction

[Paolo Casaschi]

The ECForum has spoken, Caruana favorite ahead of Nakamura with everybody else far behind.

[Mick Norris]

Yes, so today's result possibly makes Caruana marginal favourite, very early days

I assume the poll is locked now, maybe have another one after round 7?

[Paolo Casaschi]

Correct, this poll is closed now.
Another one can be opened at any moment for the mid-tournament predictions, closing before round 8.

[Jonathan Bryant]

Here’s another prediction: Agon's "nobody can broadcast the moves but us" plan isn’t going to be successful.

Think I can safely claim that one as a win.

[Paolo Casaschi]

I've gone for Karjakin

Congratulations for being the only one to guess the actual winner before the start of the event!

[JustinHorton]

I agree that Topalov is capable of anything, but he prepares well and seems to rebound well after a bad result. He got my vote for that reason, even if he doesn't appear to be a particularly pleasant individual

Whoops!

[Matt Mackenzie]

I hesitate to write top players off, but there has to be a good chance now that Topalov is finished at the absolute highest level.

[PeterFarr]

I've gone for Karjakin

Congratulations for being the only one to guess the actual winner before the start of the event!

Yes well, to be honest I only voted for him because Christopher Kreuzer said "is no-one going to vote for Karjakin"
But still, he seems a deserved winner in the end, having been there or thereabouts all the way through.

Jonathan Rogers' prediction of a lot of Topalov losses seemed to show the most foresight; and Simon Brown wasn't entirely wrong, in that he said "Topalov is capable of anything..."

I was thinking the same thing as Matt though; hard to see him coming back again.

[MartinCarpenter]

It definitely sounded at the press conference that Topalov was basically admitting he was done at this level. Can't blame him of course!

Not retiring though which is good.

[Steven DuCharme]

Go Sergey!!!!!

[Mick Norris]

It definitely sounded at the press conference that Topalov was basically admitting he was done at this level. Can't blame him of course!

He did seem undecided about whether to play, and it is unfortunate that the 8th player wasn't as well matched as the other 7 were - the final table is quite interesting in that respect

Topalov is playing at Norway, though, so maybe he will be better once he has released the pressure on himself - we have seen with others (Anand, Gelfand, Ivanchuk) that it is possible to compete into your 40s, despite the computer generation coming on strong

I think the chance has gone for Svidler too

[Matt Mackenzie]

It definitely sounded at the press conference that Topalov was basically admitting he was done at this level. Can't blame him of course!

He did seem undecided about whether to play, and it is unfortunate that the 8th player wasn't as well matched as the other 7 were - the final table is quite interesting in that respect

Topalov is playing at Norway, though, so maybe he will be better once he has released the pressure on himself - we have seen with others (Anand, Gelfand, Ivanchuk) that it is possible to compete into your 40s, despite the computer generation coming on strong

I think the chance has gone for Svidler too

And let's not forget Topa's best mate

[MartinCarpenter]

You have to still really, really want it/put huge amounts of work in though - he was saying he thought everyone else was doing much more work than him for this event. Specifically because it was the candidates and not 'just' a super tournament of course! A putative WC match would then mean doing even more.

No reason he can't do very well elsewhere.

Topalov didn't really collapse until fairly near the end I think?

[JustinHorton]

I wonder about Aronian. It's startling to look at Wikipedia and see that he was rated 2830 only two years ago. Given his relative collapse in form since then, I think I formed the impression that he was older than he is, associating the loss of form with the effect of advancing age: but he's only 33. He might still have one more go in him.

But at the same time I wonder whether he's missing some small element of drive, perhaps. And also whether he can't really expect to advance over the last two to three years, whereas Giri and Caruana can.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Jonathan Rogers' prediction of a lot of Topalov losses seemed to show the most foresight

You're very kind, but I am sure that several people foresaw that. Quite something for him to finish as the only player on a minus score though!

It seemed to me that when Topa played 1...c5 against Karjakin in round 12, a whole Russian contingent of supporters must have been shaking their fists, thinking "YES!".

Still, it seems to me that Karjakin probably was the deserved winner, remembering that it is indeed about taking one's chances too. He only lost to a virtuoso endgame performance by Anand, and it's unlikely that such a loss will happen against Carl ... on hang on ...