Post
by Jonathan Rogers » Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:50 pm
I have chipped in with a Giri prediction, perhaps because I think he is one of the three most plausible winners and it seems ridiculous that he hasn't yet had a vote! His Grand Tour performance last year, if repeated, would suffice to win. If you have zero losses, as he did in 27 games on the Tour last year, then you don't need to win many games; perhaps just three, or four at the most.
But I can see why the other two of the three, Caruana and Naka, attract more votes. Naka is some kind of genius in his own right, and I don't think that he will be affected by any subconscious fear of being murdered by Carlsen in a match. Top players don't think like that (eg Short, when fighting through to challenge Kasparov). Caruana is, I think, more conventional - a lot of computer preparation but thereafter one tends to think that one understands his moves - and perhaps I always have a prejudice against world championship contenders who are not so strong at blitz. But he would probably give Carlsen the closest match, or at least he would be the one Carlsen would least like to face, because Caruana has beaten him quite often and quite convincingly.
Of course, writing off the older generation like this is not to be done lightly ....
Who will come last, we might also ask? Even harder! One can only really imagine Topalov losing many games, or Aronian if things don't go his way again. There will be a lot of draws overall but hopefully mostly fighting ones.
), though Svidler always prepares and plays well, I don't think he'll win enough games (which may be Giri's problem, possibly Karjakin's too)
