Candidates winning score prediction

JustinHorton · Post by **JustinHorton** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:51 pm

What score will be required to win the tournament outright?

Last time out Anand scored +3 and was a point clear of a bunched field, so +2 would have been sufficient. In 2013 Carlsen and Kramnik were tied on +3, so +4 would have been required. In the 2007 world championship tournament Anand scored +4, but won by a point so +3 would have been our figure, while in 2005 Topalov scored his remarkable +6, winning by a point and a half so that a mere +4 would have been enough.

But this tournament? What score will win it without recourse to tie-breaks?

LawrenceCooper · Post by **LawrenceCooper** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:10 pm

So if it's tied do we need to have predicted the score immediately above?

JustinHorton · Post by **JustinHorton** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:17 pm

Yes: in 2013 where Kramnik and Carlsen tied on +3, the correct score would have been +4.

This poll only running for twenty-four hours, by the way, just to make it harder for people to sneak in an extra game before guessing.

Jonathan Bryant · Post by **Jonathan Bryant** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:27 pm

I went for +3 which I hope is the right button for 8.5/14. My maths unreliable at this point in the week

JustinHorton · Post by **JustinHorton** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:30 pm

Your helpful guide:

+1 = 7.5/14
+2 = 8.0/14
+3 = 8.5/14 *
+4 = 9.0/14
+5 = 9.5/14
+6 = 10.0/14

* my choice

Mick Norris · Post by **Mick Norris** » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:38 pm

JustinHorton wrote:Yes: in 2013 where Kramnik and Carlsen tied on +3, the correct score would have been +4

I think a tie on +3 is possible again

JustinHorton · Post by **JustinHorton** » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:08 pm

Still time to vote (closes 4.51 I think)

JustinHorton · Post by **JustinHorton** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:05 pm

And in the end, +2 would have done it.

Mick Norris · Post by **Mick Norris** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:21 pm

Well, +3 was the winning score, presumably in part because +2 was no good to Caruana as he hadn't won/lost enough games - if there had been a rapid playoff tomorrow as a tiebreak, then I bet today's game would have been a draw

Karjakin is objectionable, unfortunately, but he has very strong nerves as we saw at the World Cup - Carlsen won't find him easy to beat

NickFaulks · Post by **NickFaulks** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:39 pm

Mick Norris wrote: Karjakin is objectionable, unfortunately

He seems a thoroughly pleasant young chap to me, and I don't think there is any ill will between him and other top players.

MartinCarpenter · Post by **MartinCarpenter** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:12 pm

Think it's the Ukraine/Russia thing which annoys some but really rather unfair to blame him for that!

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Candidates winning score prediction

What score will win the tournament outright?

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