Candidates: predict the last two rounds

[JustinHorton]

I guess I should be looking at different combinations of results to see who can still come first and who can't

OK just to parody myself properly...

Only John and Alistair can't win (Alistair's selections for today match Lawrence's, while John shares two predictions with Lawrence and is three points behind him).

Everybody else can at least tie for first although Nick and Barry cannot win outright (since they share the same predictions) and nor can Paolo or Christopher (who both share three predictions with Nick and Barry). Mick shares two selections with Lawrence so he too can only tie.

But I can win outright, as of course can the front-runner, Lawrence.

[LawrenceCooper]

Mystic Lawrence has Svidler-Anand and Karjakin-Caruana as draws tomorrow, so that's the excitement over then

Karjakin goes to New York (unless the US authorities refuse him a visa)

0/1 for me today as Nakamura-Aronian ends in a draw

[JustinHorton]

Nearly everybody else had that result: only Mick and Alistair miss out along with Lawrence.

With three games to go:

4 - Lawrence, Nick, Barry
3 - Justin, Paolo, Christopher
2 - Mick, Alistair, John

[LawrenceCooper]

Giri-Topalov drawn so another of my predictions bites the dust

[JustinHorton]

And the draw-prediction team take the lead - shared, apprpriately enough. Good news also for Paolo and Christopher.

5 - Nick, Barry
4 - Lawrence, Paolo, Christopher
3 - Justin
2 - Mick, Alistair, John

[JustinHorton]

And another one for the draw boys: also everybody else save Mick, Paolo and myself.

6 - Nick, Barry
5 - Lawrence, Christopher
4 - Paolo
3 - Justin, Alistair, John
2 - Mick

[JustinHorton]

If Karjakin wins, Christopher will join Nick and Barry at the top. If he draws, he won't.

[JustinHorton]

And he does!

6 - Nick, Barry, Christopher
5 - Lawrence
4 - Paolo
3 - Justin, Alistair, John
2 - Mick

[NickFaulks]

I think Christopher has to get it on most predicted wins.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Thanks, Nick. Predicting all draws was (in hindsight) a good strategy for you and Barry as well. Predicting 6 out of 8 results - are there any people able to calculate the probability of that? (i.e. what are the total number of permutations?) I was impressed that Loz got 4/4 for round 13, but then I managed to do that for round 14.

(I had a sneaky suspicion that in the last round the only really crucial game would be Karjakin-Caruana, and the others wouldn't have much to play for, so draws would be more likely there. I didn't fare so well for round 13, where I thought nerves would lead to lots of wins. In the end, it was one win in each round along with three draws.)

[LawrenceCooper]

Thanks, Nick. Predicting all draws was (in hindsight) a good strategy for you and Barry as well. Predicting 6 out of 8 results - are there any people able to calculate the probability of that? (i.e. what are the total number of permutations?) I was impressed that Loz got 4/4 for round 13, but then I managed to do that for round 14.

Not so impressive when all I did was to predict that Topa would lose and everyone else would draw