Candidates: predict the last two rounds

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Alistair Campbell
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Alistair Campbell » Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:25 pm

Ok - I'll go

ROUND THIRTEEN

Caruana v Svidler 1-0
Aronian v Karjakin 1/2
Topalov v Nakamura 1/2
Anand v Giri 1/2

ROUND FOURTEEN

Svidler v Anand 1/2
Giri v Topalov 1-0
Nakamura v Aronian 1-0
Karjakin v Caruana 1/2

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Mar 27, 2016 9:35 am

My prediction:

ROUND THIRTEEN

Caruana v Svidler 1-0
Aronian v Karjakin 0-1
Topalov v Nakamura 0-1
Anand v Giri 1/2

ROUND FOURTEEN

Svidler v Anand 1/2
Giri v Topalov 1/2
Nakamura v Aronian 1/2
Karjakin v Caruana 1-0

John McKenna

Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by John McKenna » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:23 am

I expect the results in today's penultimate round will be -

Caruana (7) 0-1 (6) Svidler
Aronian (6) 1/2 (7) Karjakin
Anand (6.5) 1-0 (6) Giri
Topalov (4) 1/2 (5.5) Nakamura

And in tomorrow's final round -

Karjakin (7.5) 0-1 (7) Caruana
Svidler (7) 1/2 (7.5) Anand
Nakamura (6) 1/2 (6.5) Aronian
Giri (6.0) 1-0 (4.5) Topalov

Edit - correction to Giri's score.
Last edited by John McKenna on Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Mick Norris » Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:35 am

John

Giri would only have 6, not 6.5, if he loses in round 13 - I understand he has never lost a classical game to Vishy, who in turn has never lost to Svidler - is that right?
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John McKenna

Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by John McKenna » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:06 pm

Mick, thanks for pointing that error in Giri's score in my post, above. I'll correct it.

You may well be right about the results between Vishy & Giri, and Svidler & Vishy but how often they've played is of interest.

The only two stats that come to mind this morning are that Vishy versus Aronian is the highest and Svidler versus Giri the lowest when it comes to counting the number of times the candidates have met otb. I know that doesn't help us at this juncture but my connection is playing up so I can't easily check the more interesting stats.

Enjoy the games!

Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Mick Norris » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:23 pm

John

No problem, it is how they play in the next 2 days that matter, not the past

I see your predictions leave Caruana winning on tiebreak from Vishy
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:42 pm

Can Caruana and Karjakin both 'afford' to lose today and still come first with a win tomorrow? I think Anand loses to Caruana in a 2-way tie and beats Karjakin in a 2-way tie, but what happens in a three-way or more tie?

Does it make more sense for Caruana and Karjakin to go for it today, or wait until tomorrow? Should Anand go for it today and does everyone else also have to go for it today? Is Topalov the only player who cannot now win the event?

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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:45 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Can Caruana and Karjakin both 'afford' to lose today and still come first with a win tomorrow? I think Anand loses to Caruana in a 2-way tie and beats Karjakin in a 2-way tie, but what happens in a three-way or more tie?
Surely Caruana would then have beaten both the other two?
Last edited by JustinHorton on Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:50 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Does it make more sense for Caruana and Karjakin to go for it today, or wait until tomorrow? Should Anand go for it today and does everyone else also have to go for it today? Is Topalov the only player who cannot now win the event?
Good opening preparation maybe ought to put Caruana in a position with a slight edge anyway. If he feels he's going to have to push his luck, maybe he'll check out how Aronian-Karjakin is going before he decides! Obviously this will remind everybody of the last round in London.

Anand doesn't have to win today if Caruana doesn't, though to win that way he'd be relying on Karjakin winning the last-round game as well as winning with Black himself. But that's plausible, it's not do-or-die.

I've not been able to come up with any set of results which would enable Nakamura to win on tie-break. I think he's out.
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LawrenceCooper
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:04 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Does it make more sense for Caruana and Karjakin to go for it today, or wait until tomorrow? Should Anand go for it today and does everyone else also have to go for it today? Is Topalov the only player who cannot now win the event?
I think that Caruana needs to try with white as his last round pairing against Karjakin won't be a lot of fun if he needs to try to win as black. Karjakin can probably rely on Aronian taking risks and so probably doesn't need to do anything out of the ordinary. Below the top two the rest need a win to have any hope of a chance at first.

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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:05 pm

JustinHorton wrote: Obviously this will remind everybody of the last round in London.
You mean where they all tried to calibrate their own play by what was going on in the other games and made a complete horlicks of it.
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LawrenceCooper
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by LawrenceCooper » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:06 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
JustinHorton wrote: Obviously this will remind everybody of the last round in London.
You mean where they all tried to calibrate their own play by what was going on in the other games and made a complete horlicks of it.
:lol:

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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:09 pm

No more predictions, please. Play has commenced.
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Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by Mick Norris » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:10 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Can Caruana and Karjakin both 'afford' to lose today and still come first with a win tomorrow? I think Anand loses to Caruana in a 2-way tie and beats Karjakin in a 2-way tie, but what happens in a three-way or more tie?
Surely Caruana would then have beaten both the other two?
Scenario here is that there is a decisive result between Caruana & Karjakin, but they both lose today, so 1 is out and then the winner of their game finishes on 8

To get to 8, Vishy scores 1.5 against Giri & Svidler, which means neither of them reach 8, so to get a 3 way tie, Aronian beats Karjakin today and J'adoubeamura tomorrow

3 way tie with Karjakin, Anand, Aronian - head to head is Vishy 1-1 with Karjakin, Vishy 1.5 - 0.5 with Levon, and Levon 1.5 - 0.5 with Karjakin, which means Vishy wins

3 way tie with Caruana, Anand, Aronian - head to head is Vishy 0.5-1.5 with Caruana, Vishy 1.5 - 0.5 with Levon, and Levon 1 - 1 with Caruana, which means Caruana wins
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JustinHorton
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Re: Candidates: predict the last two rounds

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:31 pm

For Giri to qualify, I think he not only needs to win twice but (because he has no chance in any tie-breaks) he also needs Svidler to beat Caruana with Black and Aronian to beat Karjakin with White today, but Karjakin to then draw with Caruana on the last day while Aronian doesn't beat Nakamura and Svider doesn't beat Aronian. Topalov-Nakamura doesn't affect him though! (Or anybody else.)
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