World Championship Final Round Predictions

[Joshua Gibbs]

Hi how does everyone think the final round go?

I think Karjakin will win it, if he doesnt I think theres every chance it will be decided by armageddon and who gets white or black...

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Carlsen will win the final round. That's my prediction.

[Nick Burrows]

Carlsen in a Kings Gambit miniature

[Paul Cooksey]

More of the same.

Magnus will deviate from a main line fairly early, so no early preparation forcing dead equality, but no real advantage either. Sergey will avoid as much complexity as possible, and probably drift into a slightly worse position. Magnus will press using his deep understanding to give Sergey as many positional decisions as possible. At some point Sergey will calculate his way out of trouble. (with a 10% chance of Magnus breaking through, and a 10% chance of Magnus over-pressing).

I'm expecting the tiebreaks to follow that pattern too.

I like a positional struggle and the contrast of styles. So I'm really looking forward to it.

[JustinHorton]

The hour strikes. They shake hands. Magnus contemplates the board for a moment, weighing up his preparation. Suddenly his mobile phone rings...

[David Robertson]

The opening moves will be:

1 e4 c5; 2 Nf3 e6; 3 d4 cxd4; 4 Nxd4 Nc6

[Carl Hibbard]

A draw in under 30 moves.

[Paul Cooksey]

The opening moves will be:

1 e4 c5; 2 Nf3 e6; 3 d4 cxd4; 4 Nxd4 Nc6

That would be a nice tribute, and maybe Magnus would consider it. But Sergey is too disciplined, he will stick to 1...e5 even if he knows he will have to defend.

[Paul Cooksey]

A draw in under 30 moves.

They'd need to find a repetition I think for Sofia-lite rules. But I expect Magnus will at least try to play a long game.

[MartinCarpenter]

That latter is very obvious from game 11 Finding the way to keep that going all the way to the end was of course normal for Carlsen but still good going!

[Paolo Casaschi]

I predict a surprise opening novelty from Karjakin to win the match!
After all, he supposedly had plenty of money and people to help his opening preparation, he must have some secret weapons available.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Opening surprises only work if you can predict what your opponent will play. From the match so far, do you think Karjakin has been able to steer his opponent into the openings he wants to play, or has Carlsen been controlling things in that department? Or a bit of both?

[Roger de Coverly]

Opening surprises only work if you can predict what your opponent will play.

Carlsen hasn't been willing to take on Karjakin's Nimzo or Queens Indian by playing 1. d4 and 2. c4. If he plays 1.e4, Karjakin has been responding with .. e5 and they get the same type of game almost regardless of the detail of moves and move orders.

I suppose 1. c4 or 1. Nf3 might make an appearance. Messy positions from the English aren't really a Carlsen speciality.

[Barry Sandercock]

I predict another draw. I don't think either of them will take any chances and risk a loss in this important game.

[Paul Cooksey]

I've been surprised Magnus hasn't gone after the QID, since it looks like the weakest point of Sergey's armour. All the other elite GMs are playing 3...d5 instead of 3...b6 at the moment. Maybe Magnus is giving the QGD due respect, but I was expecting at least an enquiry as to Sergey's main defence.

Avoiding 1.c4 and 1.Nf3 makes more sense to me. A way to duck theory against some people, but Sergey is the leading expert in the most solid and theoretically respectable lines of the symmetrical structure.

If either player had a devastating novelty up his sleeve, I think we'd have seen it already. So I'm expecting another tense game in an equal but unbalanced position.