Test Cricket Elo rankings

[Matt Mackenzie]

Andy Lloyd (Warwickshire & England). His only Test was against the West Indies in June 1984. After making ten runs, and batting for thirty three minutes, he was hit on the head by the West Indies fast bowler, Malcolm Marshall. Despite wearing a helmet, Lloyd spent several days in hospital, and played no further cricket in 1984. He never played for England again. He is the only Test Match opening batsman never to have been dismissed. (from the Wiki)

Unlucky!

Paul Terry was also permanently put out of Test action by the Windies bowlers in that series, after just a handful of appearances.

[Jonathan Bryant]

These are the Test ratings my software spewed out, for the 2067 Tests that have been played since 1877 ....

This is really rather impressive.

Are you able to punch a few buttons and establish the ratings at various other points in history (e.g. when West Indies were super dominant in the 70s/early 80s; more recently when Australia were clearly the world's best)?


J

[Alex Holowczak]

Are you able to punch a few buttons and establish the ratings at various other points in history (e.g. when West Indies were super dominant in the 70s/early 80s; more recently when Australia were clearly the world's best)?

The software reads the results from a csv file. I am able to copy and paste selected results to other csv files, and get the software to read those to do this, yes. I was doing checks such as the ones you mention as I went along, to make sure I wasn't getting stupid numbers.

Here are the ratings at the end of 1980:

Code: Select all

   Country         Rating
 1 West Indies     2333 
 2 England         2332 
 3 India           2307 
 4 Australia       2297 
 5 Pakistan        2277 
 6 New Zealand     2183 

West Indies aren't actually that dominant by 1980. Fast forward to the end of 1985, however:

Code: Select all

   Country         Rating
 1 West Indies     2431 
 2 England         2287 
 3 Pakistan        2284 
 4 New Zealand     2254 
 5 Australia       2238 
 6 India           2237 
 7 Sri Lanka       2088 

By the end of 1995, their dominance had ended:

Code: Select all

   Country         Rating
 1 Australia       2369 
 2 West Indies     2330 
 3 South Africa    2310 
 4 Pakistan        2300 
 5 India           2287 
 6 England         2257 
 7 Sri Lanka       2151 
 8 New Zealand     2140 
 9 Zimbabwe        2096

When were Australia most dominant, do you think? Here's the ratings I have, accurate as late as 6th August, 2005. The day before the famous Sunday at Edgbaston, when England beat Australia by 2 runs. Without being more scientific, that's probably the biggest gap Australia had.

Code: Select all

   Country         Rating
 1 Australia       2470 
 2 England         2346 
 3 South Africa    2308 
 4 India           2287 
 5 Sri Lanka       2258 
 6 Pakistan        2239 
 7 New Zealand     2223 
 8 West Indies     2116 
 9 Zimbabwe        1994 
10 Bangladesh      1924 

This is all with k = 25, by the way.

[Alex Holowczak]

So we've established parity between Australia 2005 and Keith Arkell?

No, because the magnitude of the ratings is entirely irrelevant. If I started England and Australia at 2000, not 2500, back in 1877, then they'd be 500 points lower. I could add 10,000 points if I want without changing the differences. The differences are the important thing.

[Jonathan Bryant]

When were Australia most dominant, do you think?

Good question, but I think they were on the turn prior to 2005.


As for the West Indies, my earliest sporting memory is Viv Richards spending a few days splattering the English bowlers all over a very parched Oval outfield (This would have been 74 or 75). I'm sure that has had an effect on my impression of the strength of their team back then (that and their back to back world cup wins).

Although it seemed that they could bat as long as they wanted, I think the Windies "only" won that series 2-0 or 3-0 or some such. A comprehensive victory to be sure, but nothing like the 5-0s they recorded in the 1980s.

[Alex Holowczak]

When were Australia most dominant, do you think?

Good question, but I think they were on the turn prior to 2005.


As for the West Indies, my earliest sporting memory is Viv Richards spending a few days splattering the English bowlers all over a very parched Oval outfield (This would have been 74 or 75). I'm sure that has had an effect on my impression of the strength of their team back then (that and their back to back world cup wins).

Although it seemed that they could bat as long as they wanted, I think the Windies "only" won that series 2-0 or 3-0 or some such. A comprehensive victory to be sure, but nothing like the 5-0s they recorded in the 1980s.

West Indies won 3-0 against England in 1976. The thing is, in 1974/5, they lost 5-1 to Australia.

I haven't done this for ODIs, because there have been about 3300 of those, and that'd be a much larger job to input everything to the CSV. Might do it for T20I though, which requires only about 300 results. The problem with these will be how to start everything off, since all of the countries basically started together, and teams come and go from ODI status. And got to write some code so my software understands what "No Result" means.

[Matt Mackenzie]

The 1974/75 series in Oz was in fact a turning point for WI cricket.

After it, Clive Lloyd vowed they would never be humiliated in such a fashion again - and abandoned their traditional "calypso" cricket for a much more pragmatic and, yes, ruthless approach (shown to great effect, of course, when they toured here in 1976)

[Jonathan Bryant]

Adios Tony Grieg

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricke ... ttack.html

[David Robertson]

Does 45ao drop NZ to the level of club patzer?

[Alex Holowczak]

Does 45ao drop NZ to the level of club patzer?

They have cemented their reputation as being the worst Test side in the world*, if that's what you mean.

*We all know Zimbabwe and Bangladesh don't count.

[Richard Bates]

Does 45ao drop NZ to the level of club patzer?

At Cape Town... it puts them at about the same level as Australia...

[Matt Mackenzie]

Let's not gloat too much, some of us are old enough to remember England scoring 46

[Mick Norris]

Let's not gloat too much, some of us are old enough to remember England scoring 46

Indeed, that's why it was pleasing NZ only scored 45

[Jonathan Bryant]

When I was a lad I saw Essex bowl out Surrey for 14.

[Matt Mackenzie]

When I was a lad I saw Essex bowl out Surrey for 14

And the game ended as...........yes you guessed it, a draw