Scotland and the referendum on independence

[NickFaulks]

The Betfair market has gone out to 9/2 Yes. Could be Carney manipulating it, he's got form.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Quoted from here

To balance matters, given one Anglo-Scot chess player's glowing take on the 'Yes' side in the forthcoming Scottish Independence referendum (quoted a few posts above), here's one from another lifelong chess playing Anglo-Scot, an old Glasgow school-mate and fellow Glasgow University graduate.

From today's "Scotsman", which has just come out for the 'No' side and quotes as below in an article on a very current problem in its business pages:

'As Roy Batchelor, a professor at Cass Business School, pointed out, “Financial markets hate uncertainty, and this quickly gets translated into prices … the risks to the UK are trivial compared to those triggered in Scotland by the likely flight of capital and business talent if the Yes campaign wins.”'

Unlike those two London-based Anglo-Scots, this ex-London-based Anglo-Scot has a crucial vote ... Guess who's take I take?

It looks like two factors will come into play here: (i) those who had already cast their postal votes before things really started getting serious (that is an indictment of the politicians who didn't take this seriously enough) and (ii) the votes by those who were still undecided. My feeling is that (ii) will outweigh (i) over the closing days of campaigning.

Craig, would you mind if I asked whether you were among the 'undecided' or whether the current coverage reinforced or changed your pre-existing position? I've seen the percentage of 'undecided' shrink from around 20% to 10% now. Will it be that remaining 10 percent of 'undecided' that decides this referendum, or will there be shifts from 'yes' to 'no' and the other way?

[Craig Pritchett]

Wasn't even aware of this thread and haven't read through it in detail.

No, I have never remotely been 'undecided'. Nor do I think that anyone at least in Scotland (and possibly extending into NE England - Newcastle is much nearer Edinburgh and Glasgow than far-off London) has been unaware of virtually all the issues for a very long time.

Personally I think the Scotsman leader (at http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-s ... -1-3537857) more or less expresses the views of the (largely) silent majority .... throughout the UK, never mind just Scotland. And I would guess that this will probably also read through to the same silent majority among those who have previously never voted.

I don't do betting though! But I'd guess, if pushed, that the smart money must still be on 'no', though perhaps not by a huge margin!

I did chuckle, however, at a wry comment made recently by one quite serious newspaper and TV pundit (who actually seems to sympathise, if lukewarmly with 'Yes' and if I read him correctly) to the effect that the SNP were leading a historically unique 'national liberation movement' that instead of crying 'freedom' seems to make most noise about its insistence on achieving a 'currency union with rUK'.

About sums it all up, really!?

[David Robertson]

Today's 'Times Higher' gives details of its poll of university academics, fwiw. I'd guess it's a self-selecting sample of responses. Nevertheless...

% voting YES

61% U Glasgow
46% U Aberdeen
42% Napier U (Edin)
41% Robert Gordon U (Aberdeen)
35% U Edinburgh
35% U St Andrews
23% U Dundee

56% Arts,Hum, Soc Sci
31% Sci, Eng, Med

The 'outlier' for U Glasgow is explained by a disproportionate response from Arts,Hum,SocSci academics at that university. (No explanation offered for U Dundee).

How would this academic vote? With my heart, I'd likely vote YES. But what's a brain for? So my answer is: Don't Be Silly, Please! It has to be NO

[John McKenna]

...

I predict a win for the Scottish people and independance.

I don’t think independance is an option….

Will the ECF have to stop using the current grading system as this was invented by Scotsman Kenneth Harkness?.

I’m not sure England wants to go down the (bumpy) road of not using things invented by Scots…

Possibly 'independance' was a veiled allusion, by Martin Crichton, to Lord of the Dance, Michael Flatley: Dangerous Games at the London Palladium.

And, "... (bumpy) roads..." an allusion to John Loudon McAdam (1756-1836) - the engineer who invented 'tarmacadam' for smoothing roads.

So, will the Scots use their brains then take the 'no' road and stay to the UK?
Or, will they listen to their hearts then take the 'aye' road to independence?

It may be fear of the English 'aye'waymen's threats to cut the Scot's sporrans and purses that tips the balance in favour of the 'no' road. However, that road is also fraught with hidden dangers to come...

[Craig Pritchett]

Maybe a somewhat false dichotomy here!?

My point (and the "Scotsman's" view) is that the heart and mind (or 'brains') can be, and usually are, united. Mine have certainly always been so on the matter of the referendum; and I'm fairly certain that the silent majority in Scotland (and the wider UK for that matter) are likely to (probably long already) see greater risk all-round, in a modern, globalised world, in attempting to disentangle from a comparably complicated, interdependent and broadly well-functioning UK than in remaining 'united' ... with further devolution of accountable political powers, as promised, of course ... including implicitly, near explicitly down the line to the English regions and cities!

Nationalism as a driving political ideology in Western Europe may have made sense when it really changed the shape of the world in the 19th century. But it's surely a doubtful driver for massive political, social, economic and cultural change in a developed western European country in the 21st century. I don't think most folk in GB and N Ireland actually buy that!

Might be proved wrong, of course!

[Matt Mackenzie]

Or to put it at its most basic perhaps, Scotland now can't really consider itself oppressed the way the Irish were a century ago - can it?

[Alistair Campbell]

It looks like two factors will come into play here: (i) those who had already cast their postal votes before things really started getting serious (that is an indictment of the politicians who didn't take this seriously enough) and (ii) the votes by those who were still undecided. My feeling is that (ii) will outweigh (i) over the closing days of campaigning.

I don’t have stats to hand, but it seems that there has been a significant movement from getting postal votes out of necessity (one would be absent on polling day) to getting them for convenience, which is no bad thing, but it does change the campaign dynamics. Anyone who exercises their ballot early runs the risk of more information coming to light which may have changed their decision.

I have some sympathy for politicians. Ultimately they are beholden to their electorate, and although a campaign may target different days for different issues, if the electorate decides that another issue should be the issue du jour, that is what happens. Both campaigns will be holding back some ammo for next week.

(No explanation offered for U Dundee)

Well, yes, quite. Back on the referendum I noticed from a press report that William Hill had not taken any bets in Dundee on “No” winning. I guess some sort of Venn diagram may be in order here.

"... (bumpy) roads..." an allusion to John Loudon McAdam 1756-1836) - the engineer who invented 'tarmacadam' for smoothing roads

Er, yes – was that too obvious?

Or to put it at its most basic perhaps, Scotland now can't really consider itself oppressed the way the Irish were a century ago - can it?

Could we ever?

No, I have never remotely been 'undecided'. Nor do I think that anyone at least in Scotland (and possibly extending into NE England - Newcastle is much nearer Edinburgh and Glasgow than far-off London) has been unaware of virtually all the issues for a very long time.
<snip>
I did chuckle, however, at a wry comment made recently by one quite serious newspaper and TV pundit (who actually seems to sympathise, if lukewarmly with 'Yes' and if I read him correctly) to the effect that the SNP were leading a historically unique 'national liberation movement' that instead of crying 'freedom' seems to make most noise about its insistence on achieving a 'currency union with rUK'.

About sums it all up, really!?

Hi Craig – interesting thoughts as usual, and nice pay-off line. Whilst there have been (self-)congratulatory comments on the level of “engagement” my personal experience is that debate has been rather basic, with it becoming a war of competing “cut and paste” jobs from barely understood academics. There is an air of the Underpants Gnomes’ 3 stage business plan about some of it…

[Roger de Coverly]

There is an air of the Underpants Gnomes’ 3 stage business plan about some of it…

There was a Salmond v Nick Robinson conflict reported on the Guardian website
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/vid ... -rbs-video

The Salmond argument seemed to be that Corporation Tax followed economic activity. What about Starbucks or Amazon who make their profits appear in Luxembourg despite having minimal economic activity there?

I thought the original point from a Scottish viewpoint of the "United" Kingdom was that it gave Scottish companies and financial institutions access to the wider English (and Welsh) markets. If they withdraw from that, the access is withdrawn.

I saw a comment that those who consider certain truths self evident fought an extremely vicious war against those who wanted to withdraw from their Union. The break up of another Union, the Soviet one was at least peaceful, for its first twenty years anyway.

[John McKenna]

A Tory talking sense, but maybe a lone voice in the wilderness of Westminster -

http://www.cityam.com/1410368705/devo-m ... ppy-result

(I seem to recall that this is not the only time what Mark Field has said made sense to me.)

"The break up of another Union, the Soviet one was at least peaceful, for its first twenty years anyway."

Apart from the conflict in Chechnya, which has lasted the whole time and is still not quite over.

[Paul McKeown]

If Roger thinks that the split up of the Soviet Union was peaceful and remained so for two decades, then he is extraordinarily poorly informed.

As for Scotland, the issue, apparently close, may well be decided on Thursday by the relative efficiencies of the GOTV efforts. The Naws have the elderly, traditionally voters, firmly in their camp, whilst the Ayes have the youth equally firmly in their camp. Or so we are lead to believe by our friends in the press. I know which I would prefer to be voting on my side in any political campaign.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Actually, the youngest voters are not that reliable for "yes". Their strength lies in those who grew up under the 1979-97 Tory government.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Any last-minute thoughts on this? (Voting is tomorrow.)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-29231440

"Scottish independence: Mass rallies mark referendum climax"

(The comments section very pro-Union)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29232538

"Betfair pays out early to gamblers backing 'No' vote"

[David Robertson]

I have a question.

If a YES vote, what's to be done about all the Scots employed in Whitehall, the Treasury and so forth? Don't they immediately become hostile agents of a foreign power?

And then, there's the Arbiters.

[Kevin Thurlow]

"If a YES vote, what's to be done about all the Scots employed in Whitehall, the Treasury and so forth? Don't they immediately become hostile agents of a foreign power?

And then, there's the Arbiters."

In fairness, the arbiters were widely regarded as hostile already.