The Labour Leadership Debate!!

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:19 pm

The new Labour leader announced tomorrow.

The entrée course today is Sadiq Khan winning the Labour nomination for the London Mayor election:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34218390

"Mr Khan won 48,152 votes, a 58.9% share, in the fifth round of voting after four other candidates had been eliminated. Ex-minister Tessa Jowell, regarded as the frontrunner going into the contest, came second with 41.1% of the vote. A total of 87,954 votes were cast."

Wonder if that gives a hint as to whether the voting system (after some rounds of elimination) will favour someone other than Corbyn in the Labour leadership contest?

David Robertson

Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by David Robertson » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:48 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Wonder if that gives a hint as to whether the voting system (after some rounds of elimination) will favour someone other than Corbyn in the Labour leadership contest?
Can't see that. Khan had 'won' by the first count in reality. He could rely on the vast majority of Abbott's vote still to come. In fact, he got c. 70% of it. Unless someone tops Corbyn (in electoral rather than homicidal terms), it's hard to see how Cooper gets past Burnham's 2nd prefs, were she to eliminate him. And unless Burnham is very close to Corbyn after Rd 1, it's hard (but not impossible) to see Cooper's prefs mattering enough. Suspect we won't get that far though.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:53 pm

Ah, OK. The BBC report isn't giving the round-by-round breakdown. I had assumed that Jowell won the first round, but from what you say, Khan was ahead all the way? Where can the breakdown be found? (Found them on the Guardian reports).

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:18 pm

Khan was ahead of Jowell at all stages.

Though she was ahead of him amongst "full" members until Abbott was knocked out, when her transfers gave him a small but clear lead there.

(and, of course, he had a much bigger one in the other two categories)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:20 pm

Er, "full" members? As opposed to what, the £3-to-join-and-vote members? I've not seen that breakdown anywhere yet (but thanks for pointing it out). Oh, two other categories? Confusing. Same for the leadership election?

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:24 pm

Registered supporters (the "£3 to vote" people) and those signed up via their union/affiliated organisation.

It is an OMOV system now, so there is no actual obligation to split the votes thus but Labour HQ bowed to pressure to do so.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:25 pm

I wonder what categories you would get in an ECF OMOV system? :D (oops, that's off topic!)

Angus French
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Angus French » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:39 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Er, "full" members? As opposed to what, the £3-to-join-and-vote members? I've not seen that breakdown anywhere yet (but thanks for pointing it out). Oh, two other categories? Confusing. Same for the leadership election?
Breakdown here.

David Robertson

Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by David Robertson » Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:02 pm

Thanks for that, Angus. So now we know: the £3.00 mob make all the difference

Mick Norris
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:15 pm

David Robertson wrote:Thanks for that, Angus. So now we know: the £3.00 mob make all the difference
Based on members only, it was Khan v Jowell from the start with Tessa in the lead until all the other candidates had been eliminated, whereupon she would have lost anyway - or am I reading the figures wrongly?
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Angus French
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Angus French » Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:34 pm

Mick Norris wrote:
David Robertson wrote:Thanks for that, Angus. So now we know: the £3.00 mob make all the difference
Based on members only, it was Khan v Jowell from the start with Tessa in the lead until all the other candidates had been eliminated, whereupon she would have lost anyway - or am I reading the figures wrongly?
I think that's right - and sort of interesting.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:17 pm

David Robertson wrote:Thanks for that, Angus. So now we know: the £3.00 mob make all the difference
Um, no they didn't. And there is a good chance they won't tomorrow, either......
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Mick Norris
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Sep 11, 2015 6:38 pm

Matt

Who do you think will get the deputy post tomorrow?
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Mick Norris
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Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:22 am

Interesting to me - Labour leadership voter turnout of 423,000 (76.3%), compares to 198,844 in last Tory leadership contest & 33,897 for the Lib Dems
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John McKenna

Re: The Labour Leadership Debate!!

Post by John McKenna » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:46 am

Well, it's Jeremy Corbyn who is the new Labour leader - 59.5% in 1st round of the ballot!
And, Tom Watson is the deputy leader - he took a number of rounds to get over the line.