General Election 2017

[Matt Mackenzie]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945.

Not the greatest of omens.

Well, that at least is true

[Alex Holowczak]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945. Some images you will not see in the mainstream media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCvYkmT8-o

Well, you might have seen it on the BBC, where a lot of the footage in that video has been taken from. Note the BBC watermark in the top left corner.

[Nick Burrows]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945. Some images you will not see in the mainstream media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCvYkmT8-o

Well, you might have seen it on the BBC, where a lot of the footage in that video has been taken from. Note the BBC watermark in the top left corner.

A couple of snippets yes. Tell me honestly - did you know from the msm that he was drawing such big crowds?

[David Robertson]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945.

Not the greatest of omens.

You beat me to it. And - to coin a phrase - Corbyn is no Churchill

[Alex Holowczak]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945. Some images you will not see in the mainstream media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCvYkmT8-o

Well, you might have seen it on the BBC, where a lot of the footage in that video has been taken from. Note the BBC watermark in the top left corner.

A couple of snippets yes. Tell me honestly - did you know from the msm that he was drawing such big crowds?

I don't really watch TV news at all, so there's no reason why I would have seen it. I think I've seen all of the footage in that video before on the Internet however, usually supported by howls of "Why isn't the mainstream media showing this?!" I certainly remember seeing the Tranmere Rovers ground footage. I knew about Birmingham from local news, and I'd seen various Facebook posts from friends who attended, which showed the size of the crowd that had assembled.

My generation are strongly pro-Labour, and the generation above us are strongly pro-Conservative; the latter looks like outnumbering the former.

Being outnumbered by people a generation above you and losing democratic votes against them. As someone who regularly attends chess meetings, I wonder what that could possibly feel like...

[NickFaulks]

Betting markets moving sharply towards Conservative win. Possibly just position closing.

[NickFaulks]

My generation are strongly pro-Labour, and the generation above us are strongly pro-Conservative; the latter looks like outnumbering the former.

Not in terms of absolute numbers, but in terms of those who are willing to make the effort to get their arses off their sofas just once during the day, yes. What can be said?

[Alex Holowczak]

My generation are strongly pro-Labour, and the generation above us are strongly pro-Conservative; the latter looks like outnumbering the former.

Not in terms of absolute numbers, but in terms of those who are willing to make the effort to get their arses off their sofas just once during the day, yes. What can be said?

There has been much more pro-Labour politicking from people of my generation on Facebook, compared even with 2015. I wonder if that will translate to voter turnout.

The "get their arses off their sofas" trope is indeed banded about. They would argue the opposite - they're busy either at work or with exams, and so have other priorities. They would argue that those who have retired have got nothing else to do with their day, so they can afford the time to go to vote.

The other disadvantage that younger people have when it comes to voting is that those who are at University may be registered to vote at their parents' house when they were still in the Sixth Form, but have since moved 100 miles away to University. So they either have to register for a postal vote in advance, or travel to their original constituency to vote there on the day.

[John McKenna]

This GE has been said to be about Brexit, yet not a lot has been said about it in the campaign. It is what kind of Brexit that emerges after this election that will set the scenario for British Isles and Europe for the next 50-100 years.

For those interested in historical parallels the current situation is a strange kind of telescoped superposition of the start and end of WWII as far as the UK is concerned.

Externally a state of war now exists between the UK and the EU, but it is as yet still a1939-style phoney war. The actual hand-to-hand fighting is soon to come.

Internally a 1945-style General Election is already upon us with May claiming to be the victor, like Churchill, Corbyn trying to emulate airy Attlee, and Farron playing the arch appeaser (now that PM Neville Chamberlain, aka David Cameron, & Lord Halifax, aka Nick Clegg, have cut and run).

The EU's Berlin-Paris-Rome Axis is determined to punish the rabid English dog & its Welsh tail for daring to repudiate its kennel and escape under the EU's back-yard fence- though the dog's Scotty ears and Irish nose wanted to remain as they were.

In 1939 the Norwegian campaign, like the current election one, lasted from April until the British finally withdrew on 8 June - the Norwegians surrendered the next day. (The modern Norwegians have already made their peace, for which they pay dearly, with the EU.)

The main result of that spring 1939 campaign was the fall of the Conservative goverment and the establishment of a coalition government - said by some to be a traditional response to a national emergency.

If the Conservatives win this General Election with a significantly increased majority the situation vis-a-vis the EU will revert to the trench warfare of WWI.

"Strong & stable leadership" can become "lions led by donkeys" in such circumstances and result in a stalemate until time runs out and the UK is forced to walk away.

Why should the EU come to favourable terms with May when they could have done so with Cameron and nipped Brexit in the bud?

Then the main hope for the UK outside the EU is a closer alliance with the US, who saved the Brits' bacon in 1917 & 1941.

President Trump is already on side - as far as the EU is concerned - and a US-UK trade deal the only lifeline that might keep the home fires burning.

The time for getting down off the US-EU fence is here and the choice is stark - a full English Conservative Brexit, or a mini Coalition Continental Brexit.

Either way there's an uncertain price to be paid, and the chosen fare must be stomached, whether or not you have the appetite.

[Alex Holowczak]

Betting markets moving sharply towards Conservative win. Possibly just position closing.

A YouGov poll has been published with the Conservatives 7% up on Labour. That's a 3% increase on their other polling. I guess those asking themselves "What if the YouGov poll is right?" have had their fears allayed with that poll result.

[John McKenna]

A 'poll of polls' taking in 11 results from the past week has Con 44%, Lab 37%, L-D 8%. If those figures are correct the result would be -

Con 347 seats (+17), Lab 223 (-6), L-D 10 (+1)

Will that satisfy anyone?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I think the only thing that is near certain is that the polls will be wrong (well, they were divergent enough that at least some of them will be 'right' by pure happenstance). How wrong and in which direction is the question that will be answered on Thursday (and Friday morning).

(My bet is somewhere between a reduced Tory majority and a hung parliament.)

Someone, somewhere, will probably have an accumulator bet going that started with Brexit, took in Trump, and will hit an unlikely jackpot with this election.

[Mick Norris]

The "get their arses off their sofas" trope is indeed banded about. They would argue the opposite - they're busy either at work or with exams, and so have other priorities

As indeed do I, which is why I voted 2 or 3 weeks ago by post; it isn't complicated

[Alex Holowczak]

The "get their arses off their sofas" trope is indeed banded about. They would argue the opposite - they're busy either at work or with exams, and so have other priorities

As indeed do I, which is why I voted 2 or 3 weeks ago by post; it isn't complicated

Except that at every election, you get headlines like these: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 76376.html

So I can understand a reluctance for anyone to want to vote by post. In addition, I've seen one example on Facebook of someone applying for a postal vote, there being no record of the application being received, and so now has to travel from London to Birmingham today to vote, and then back again.

Create a system for people to be able to vote online, and the youth turnout will go up significantly. I guess there will be wails of "Argh, security!" from various people, but I think most people of my generation would have more confidence in an online vote than a postal vote, because less human interaction is involved. If people are that concerned about security of an online vote, then they can always vote in the existing ways.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

What is so difficult about students registering to vote at their university address? That avoids making a long trip make home if the election falls in the university term. If someone wants their vote to make a difference and vote in their home constituency, then they have to get a postal vote or travel or do a proxy vote.