General Election 2017

[Stewart Reuben]

Can somebody please explain to me why the term 'first past the post' is used?
There is a post in a horse race. But, in this type of election, it is whoever gets the most votes among the candidates.

[Michael Farthing]

Surely the simple answer Stewart is that someone used the phrase in the long distant past and we have all followed like sheep, just as we say such things as "cool as a cucumber"

[Matthew Turner]

FWIW, spread betting sites are currently suggesting an overall Tory majority of 70+ seats.

The betting picture is very complicated, but in some way it mimics the brexit market, so 80% of the bets are for Jeremy Corbyn to be the next PM, but 80% of the money is on Theresa may to be the next PM. Possibly, high rollers in the South East having a big influence on the markets without necessarily having a good nationwide perspective. For what it is worth I agree with Michael Farthing's initial contribution - very little change from the last general election.

[Angus French]

FWIW, spread betting sites are currently suggesting an overall Tory majority of 70+ seats.

The betting picture is very complicated, but in some way it mimics the brexit market, so 80% of the bets are for Jeremy Corbyn to be the next PM, but 80% of the money is on Theresa may to be the next PM. Possibly, high rollers in the South East having a big influence on the markets without necessarily having a good nationwide perspective. For what it is worth I agree with Michael Farthing's initial contribution - very little change from the last general election.

Haven't the betting markets been pretty accurate recently, with those making big bets having commissioned their own polling?

[Matthew Turner]

At the last general election the betting markets predicted that the Tories would do better than the polls suggested, but this really came nowhere near the actual result. Brexit the betting market just got wrong (Brexit was still something like 10-1 after the polls had closed) and the same with Trump.

[Alex Holowczak]

Various websites are predicting the number of seats from Great Britain in the new Parliament.

Election Forecast: http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

Conservatives 375
Labour 198
Scottish National 46
Liberal Democrats 8
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
UKIP 1
Other 1
Conservative Majority 98%

Electoral Calculus: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Conservatives 361
Labour 216
Scottish National 48
Liberal Democrats 3
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
UKIP 0
Other 0
Conservative Majority 66%

YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Conservatives 304
Labour 266
Scottish National 46
Liberal Democrats 12
Plaid Cymru 2
Other 2
Green 1
UKIP 0

That's an incredibly wide variance!

[Michael Farthing]

What do the percentage numbers after the majority mean, Alex?

[Brian Towers]

What do the percentage numbers after the majority mean, Alex?

"Conservative Majority 66%" means there is a 66% chance of a Conservative majority (326 or more seats) according to their calculations.

[NickFaulks]

"Conservative Majority 66%" means there is a 66% chance of a Conservative majority (326 or more seats) according to their calculations.

That 98% probablity of a Conservative majority is clearly absurd. However, I see it comes from the University of East Anglia, so 'nuff said.

[Matt Mackenzie]

is what campaigners are finding on the doorsteps.

Campaigners for who in which areas?

apparently labour activists in many of the critical constituencies. At the end of the day, it is "We hear you. But Corbyn, Diane Abbott? Seriously, though?"

Well, part of that excuse has now gone (though I have no doubt that for many it is precisely that - an excuse)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I have sometimes seen mention of a phenomenon where big decisions are put off until after an election. This happens in business, but does this slowdown happen at the individual level as well? Big purchases and other decisions being put off until after an election until it is clearer what is happening? Retail, market and economic slowdowns and things like that, with things taking off again when the result brings (hopefully) more certainty?

[Mick Norris]

I have sometimes seen mention of a phenomenon where big decisions are put off until after an election. This happens in business, but does this slowdown happen at the individual level as well?

I find that clients often want things done before an Election just in case; some will postpone investment decisions until after the result is clear, a very small minority might move out of the market in case of post result turmoil (a strategy which is almost always unsuccessful)

I doubt it makes much difference in terms of buying white goods, cars or even houses though

[Nick Burrows]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945. Some images you will not see in the mainstream media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCvYkmT8-o

[Nick Burrows]

Also UkIP are not fielding a candidate in 23 of the 50 labour seats with the smallest majority..

[David Sedgwick]

Michael Crick apparently saying Corbyn has been drawing the biggest crowds since Churchill in 1945.

Not the greatest of omens.