General Election 2017

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Alex Holowczak
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:24 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:When you get change like that, is it part of a long-term demographic change, or is it a single-election protest that reverses at the next election? It can be hard to tell. There are boundary changes coming at some point (not sure exactly where), though probably another election before then...
It's not anything like that. It's people who were pro-Brexit voting for the Conservatives instead of UKIP. This area was one of the strongest pro-Brexit areas of the country. I expect that once Brexit is completed, Labour will resume their dominance of these constituencies.

The boundary changes come in next year. The number of MPs will reduce from 650 to 600, and the expectation is that the changes are worth 15-25 seats to the Conservatives. This was another good reason against an election in 2017. It is a good reason for the Conservative-DUP alliance to hang on until next year.
Last edited by Alex Holowczak on Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Neil Graham
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Neil Graham » Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:24 pm

Good news for Leicestershire - Sean Sheahan will be available for the Minor Counties Championship match tomorrow!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/cons ... /E14000858

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:40 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Agonisingly close for the Lib Dems in seats like Richmond Park (lost to Conservative Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes) and Fife North East where the SNP retained the seat by 2 votes! One result still to come in Kensington where Labour might take it, but the counters were getting visibly tired after several recounts, so the count was suspended. Never seen that happen before.
Happened in Harlow in the 2005 GE - final result (knife edge Labour hold) not declared until Saturday.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:03 am


NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:53 am

It really is time England & Wales were allowed a referendum on independence from Scotland.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:04 am

Heh. It is amazing how different a view of things you can get depending on which newspaper editorials and articles you read (or indeed which online bubbles and filters and echo chambers you inhabit). It has been said many times, but that is worth repeating time and time again. Question what you read or hear. Be sceptical. Consider the other side and other arguments. Don't merge everything into a mushy compromise, but take a principled stand for what you believe in, and have the arguments to back it up.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by MartinCarpenter » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:09 am

Could believe the Scottish parties splitting off - Scottish Labour have wanted that at times too I think? It's a very different place these days, esp with PR for the Scottish elections.

It turns out to have been a very good joke - I still can't stop breaking into fits of giggles......

Frankly astonished May hasn't committed sepeku - it makes Corbyn staying on last year look flexible - but maybe she isn't being allowed to just yet.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:16 am

Who would be best placed to lead the Conservatives into the next election and when would be the best time? This is what confuses me. Why is Merkel (to switch to Europe) saying that all is still OK for Brexit negotiations to go ahead? Are the EU negotiators playing a game here as well, or are they trying to keep things stable there. Am about to catch up on Question Time from last night, but apparently one suggestion there was to negotiate on Europe, then have another election. Trouble is, the EU negotiators will drag things out in that peculiarly bureaucratic way they have (to be fair, because the whole EU regulatory and trade edifice *is* complex and difficult to negotiate over).

It is funny in one sense, Martin, but also not funny. Is there more of a sense now than after the EU referendum that this will impact the future of the country for a generation or more? Of course, the EU referendum result already put us deep into 'historic and epoch-making' territory, but does this just reinforce that, the sense that at some point people start to get swept along (and discarded) by the tide of history (Cameron and now May), rather than trying to make history?

On a technical point, what are the conditions needed to call a new election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011? I wondered at times if it would have been in the best interests of some of those agreeing to the 2017 election if they could have stymied and prevented it somehow. Can that be done now? Can the Conservatives and DUP prevent any new election?

Oh, apparently the Conservative Party in their election manifesto said they intended to repeal the Act! I bet the House of Lords will block that if they try that. But maybe it will be repealed to allow the Conservatives to call an election at a time of their choosing?

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:22 am

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Why is Merkel (to switch to Europe) saying that all is still OK for Brexit negotiations to go ahead? Are the EU negotiators playing a game here as well, or are they trying to keep things stable there.
Mainland European governments are used to coalitions and negotiating with coalitions. From a German point of view, what's just happened in the UK looks perfectly normal.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by MartinCarpenter » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:35 am

iirc The fixed term thing parliament thing is a 2/3'ds majority vote to overrule the 5 year time limit. It isn't *that* easy for an opposition to vote against the idea of an early election though :)

It could have been tempting this time round after May came out and flat announced the date for the election as a done deal. Labour could have voted against asking for 3-6 more months to prepare or something, but really just to make her look really silly.

Of course it turns out that they had an even better way to do that.....

Mick Norris
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Mick Norris » Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:18 am

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:On a technical point, what are the conditions needed to call a new election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011? I wondered at times if it would have been in the best interests of some of those agreeing to the 2017 election if they could have stymied and prevented it somehow. Can that be done now? Can the Conservatives and DUP prevent any new election?

Oh, apparently the Conservative Party in their election manifesto said they intended to repeal the Act! I bet the House of Lords will block that if they try that. But maybe it will be repealed to allow the Conservatives to call an election at a time of their choosing?
Why would the HoL block that? They will no doubt be emboldened to block a lot of what the Tories might like to do, but I can't see a reason for them to oppose repeal of the FTPA

As Martin says, the 2/3rd majority thing means it is a bit meaningless in practice

The only reason to oppose another election is if you haven't got the money to fight it properly (the Tories always have lots more money, and I imagine they'll get lots of it next time)
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Michael Farthing
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Michael Farthing » Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:20 am

The irony is that it takes 66% to call an election but only 50% to repeal the legislation that demands that 66%.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:38 am

OK, apparently the Scottish Tory breakaway was not true:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-40232374

Good point there about how Scottish Tories will have more influence from government benches than the SNP in opposition. Maybe the Scottish voters realised that as well.

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:09 pm

One way to trigger an election is a vote of no confidence in the Government. I don't think that would be very hard to organise at the moment.
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David Robertson

Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:36 pm

NickFaulks wrote:...a vote of no confidence in the Government. I don't think that would be very hard to organise at the moment.
You might even find a majority among the Tories

Incidentally, plenty on the Left are crowing that Corbyn won Labour's biggest share of the vote since Blair 2001. We're invited to draw conclusions from that according to taste. But May won the Tories their biggest vote share since Thatcher 1983. We might want to reflect on that too

My guess: the collapse of third party votes, and the resulting polarisation, reflects more the influence of the Remain-Brexit schism, and less the familiar Lab-Con tribalism. It's the only way I can make sense of a LAB gain in Kensington - love of a Trot, it is not
Last edited by David Robertson on Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.