It's not anything like that. It's people who were pro-Brexit voting for the Conservatives instead of UKIP. This area was one of the strongest pro-Brexit areas of the country. I expect that once Brexit is completed, Labour will resume their dominance of these constituencies.Christopher Kreuzer wrote:When you get change like that, is it part of a long-term demographic change, or is it a single-election protest that reverses at the next election? It can be hard to tell. There are boundary changes coming at some point (not sure exactly where), though probably another election before then...
The boundary changes come in next year. The number of MPs will reduce from 650 to 600, and the expectation is that the changes are worth 15-25 seats to the Conservatives. This was another good reason against an election in 2017. It is a good reason for the Conservative-DUP alliance to hang on until next year.