General Election 2017

[John McKenna]

Amber Rudd and Tim Farron barely made it. They should go into retreat and take a vow of silence while reflecting upon what has happened...

The Britsh Conservatives & the Northern Ireland Unionists are going to try to steal power when they have not got a democratic mandate.

The people of Northern Ireland voted remain in the EU referendum yet now the DUP leavers are going to hold the balance of power in the UK - that's fundamentally undemocratic.

Despite what Jerry Adams has said -

"There is no danger of us taking our seats in the Westminster parliament."

Sinn Fein should address that democratic deficit and take to their empty seats at Westminster. Not to do so betrays all the people of Great Britain & Northern Ireland and delivers power to those who have lost their democratic mandate.

May must go - she gambled and lost.

[NickFaulks]

Round-up of the reaction from abroad: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40215432

Unsurprising that the Europeans most scathing about Mrs May's mishandling of the election are those who don't face the nuisance of getting elected themselves.

Bernie Sanders' reaction is notable. What would the world look like today if his own party's establishment had failed to scupper his chances, as the Republicans failed with Trump and Labour failed with Corbyn?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

There are some big-name MPs who have had large majorities drastically cut. Still safe seats, but no longer quite as safe as they might have thought. Boris Johnson's majority cut from 10,000 to around 5,000. Dennis Skinner in Bolsover had his majority cut from just under 12,000 to just over 5,000. Others have massive majorities. Some are now clinging on in marginals. All very unsettling.

[Mick Norris]

Not a chess player as far as I know but an unusual name: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/person/34170

I see Mr Fishfinger got 309 votes

[Brian Towers]

Another victory for "None of the above".
Should the ECF be offering advice?

[NickFaulks]

Another victory for "None of the above".

No, it's officially a victory for the Conservative & Unionist Party. Not a bad approach, in the circumstances.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

The fishfinger candidate is covered here.

Other shock results (as it looks like 'true blue' Kensington will turn red after the recount this evening) include the Conservatives taking Copeland, Mansfield, Middlesbrough S, NE Derbys, Stoke S, Walsall N: "all seats held by Labour for decades".

Apparently there was a strong correlation between voting in the EU referendum and some of these shock results.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

The only way May can survive this is to play the caretaker role and then to try and call another election before the Tory MPs remove her (though if they mess that up, they will make things worse, so they are caught in a bind as well). May does appear in denial - maybe her special political advisors (SPADs) are giving her poor advice? I did notice that her husband (Philip) is visibly supporting her in public, at the announcement she made, which struck me as a bit odd. I thought you only saw that level of spousal support at times of arriving or leaving elected office, rather than at what is supposed to be a time of continuity and 'normal' political announcements.

[Jonathan Rogers]

it's a dreadful mess, she is only a couple of deaths or retirements away from losing a no confidence motion, but there is no good time to step down and allow a new leader to make over.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I mean Zac Goldsmith might resign in 2018 and stand again, otherwise there could be a whole year without him standing for election

[Jonathan Rogers]

Jonathan Arnott's position in UKIP is covered in some detail by the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-result

[Mick Norris]

I mean Zac Goldsmith might resign in 2018 and stand again, otherwise there could be a whole year without him standing for election

Good point; that does suggest not calling another General Election in 2017 would be best

Presumably, he gets a chance to stand again for London Mayor in 2020

[NickFaulks]

The only way May can survive this is to play the caretaker role and then to try and call another election before the Tory MPs remove her

That simply won't happen. She will remain as caretaker until the Party* decides it is time for her to go, dead woman walking. Can't help feeling a bit sorry for her, but she brought it upon herself.

In my opinion a good time for her to go would be today - not actually good, but it won't get better.

* Do I mean the Parliamentary Party or the national Party? Good question, Nick.

[Alex Holowczak]

Walsall N: "all seats held by Labour for decades".

Apparently there was a strong correlation between voting in the EU referendum and some of these shock results.

My own constituency, West Bromwich West, is just down the road from Walsall North. It has been Labour since 1935 if you include the constituency that preceded it, and exclude when Boothroyd was Speaker. In 2015, Labour's votes were roughly the same as the sum of the UKIP and Conservative votes. This time, Labour's vote went up a bit, and the Conservative vote went up by as much as UKIP's vote went down. It was the about as close as the seat has ever been to not being won by Labour, except for the Boothroyd Speakership and the immediately following by-election, which had a 27% turnout.

Walsall North is the same story - the Conservative vote went up by as much as UKIP's vote went down. Labour's vote also went up by about as much as it did in West Bromwich West, but that wasn't enough to give Labour the seat.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

When you get change like that, is it part of a long-term demographic change, or is it a single-election protest that reverses at the next election? It can be hard to tell. There are boundary changes coming at some point (not sure exactly where), though probably another election before then...