General Election 2017

[Matt Mackenzie]

Leaving aside personal preferences, the really amusing outcome would be virtually no change from two years ago.

And it could yet happen......

[MartinCarpenter]

That would be rather funny, yes. Or a slightly reduced majority A hung parliament would be deeply amusing but goodness knows what it'd make for.

[Alex Holowczak]

The interesting thing in this election - for me, anyway - is how good the polling will be after how bad it was in 2015.

After 2015, the polling companies are using different methodologies, and coming up with wildly different results. The recent ICM polls seem to give the Conservatives a 10-14 point lead. YouGov seem to have decided to increase their sample size. Everyone else's samples are about 1,000 to 2,000. YouGov's recent polls have a sample of about 50,000, and they are coming out with a 3-5 point lead for the Conservatives. It'll be interesting to see which approach produces the most accurate result.

[Michael Farthing]

Raises the intereting scenario of an election result being used to predict future winning poll companies.

[MartinCarpenter]

The huge differences in polling results are apparently mostly down to how they're modelling young peoples turnout. A lot of them are *claiming* that they'll vote but history rather suggests that they won't.

But maybe all the inter generational warfare - like the brexit vote - has got them angry enough to do so. Goodness knows.

They're so pro Labour right now that it makes a huge difference to the expected result.

[Clive Blackburn]

A lot of them are *claiming* that they'll vote but history rather suggests that they won't.

The unprecedented increase in new voter registrations in the run-up to the election indicates that they did at one stage consider it important to vote.
Whether or not they get round to it on the day is of course another matter!

[Nick Burrows]

Certainly all current students and anyone considering an education have a very real cash incentive to get out and vote!

[Michael Farthing]

My son will. He's been agonising since the election was called as to whether his vote is best used at home in Morecambe or at university in Bradford. Postal vote organised accordingly and he is now putting his efforts into persuading me. I have a long-standing policy of deliberately not voting on the basis that only increasingly low (can something be increasingly low?) participation can precipitate a change to the first-past-the-post system. I have to confess that in the face of the prospect of a victory for the May bin Trump bin Erdogan Party my resolve is weakening.

[NickFaulks]

He's been agonising since the election was called as to whether his vote is best used at home in Morecambe or at university in Bradford. Postal vote organised

This is a perversion of the system which in practice gives students the equivalent of one and a half votes. It is a mercy that it is offset by most of them being too bone idle to vote at all.

[Nick Burrows]

93% students say theyre registered to vote. 68% say they have registered at home rather than uni.

A hung parliament would be momentous for 2 reasons;

It would be the first time Rupert Murdoch has failed to correctly endorse the winning party since taking over the Sun in the late 70's (i believe).

It would be a stunning success for the first socialist candidate on the ballot since 1983. Overcoming both 200-1 odds to win the labour leadership and clawing back a 25% deficit in the polls within 5 weeks.

It would be a real body blow for the neoliberal consensus.

If May does not increase her majority, i say she goes within 6 months.

[Jonathan Rogers]

May will be re-elected with a somewhat increased majority. Sure, it will be an unenthusiastic endorsement by many people who have now seen more of her and must have some doubts as to how she can manage Brexit, or indeed anything else which involves talking with and persuading other people. But the signs are still that they will do it, because that, I gather, is what campaigners are finding on the doorsteps. (It seems to me that anecdotal doorstep impressions were more accurate than the pools in 2015. Alex will abhor their non-scientific status, but there you are).

[Phil Neatherway]

I agree with Jonathan, however I think we will see a lot of maverick results as well. For example, the Liberals seem confident of recapturing Oxford West and Abingdon, which would require overturning a 9,000 majority.

[NickFaulks]

If May does not increase her majority, i say she goes within 6 months.

or 6 days?

[Nick Burrows]

If May does not increase her majority, i say she goes within 6 months.

or 6 days?

Quite possibly, all depends on how big or small that majority is.

[Nick Burrows]

is what campaigners are finding on the doorsteps.

Campaigners for who in which areas?

The vote seems very polarised with wildly different priorities in different parts of the country. Labours vote is a coalition of youth, major cities, Wales (according to latest polls), workers from all professions affected by cuts - eg nhs, education and Social care.

Judging from the 10,000+ crowd to see Corbyn in Gateshead last night, its possible that support in former heartlands may be more robust than is being assumed..