Grading changes one year on

General discussions about ratings.
Sean Hewitt

Re: Grading changes one year on

Post by Sean Hewitt » Thu Jun 24, 2010 1:06 pm

It's far too early to say what movement junior grades might show, given that only about 85% of results are in and none of us laymen have access to the junior grade data.

However, if the data provided in this thread is to be believed then last years junior grades will not proved to be wildly inaccurate as some scaremongerers wanted us to believe this time last year. Indeed, if they do end up being out by approx 4 points on average then we can deduce

Last years junior grades were a reasonable estimate of this years performance (a 4 point margin of error would certainly fall within a statistically acceptable tolerance)

Last years junior grades were far more accurate than junior grades had been in previous years

Angus French
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Re: Grading changes one year on

Post by Angus French » Thu Jun 24, 2010 1:39 pm

Sean, I agree: it's too early speculate. However, is a '4 point margin of error' correct? Wouldn't junior grades usually increase year on year (and should the measurement be between 2009/10 grades and 'expected' 2010/11 grades)?

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Rob Thompson
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Re: Grading changes one year on

Post by Rob Thompson » Thu Jun 24, 2010 4:29 pm

once junior uplifts are added one, most wil increase this year compared to last. For example, although this year i have put in a performance of 168 compared to my 170 grade, with the 5 point uplift i believe i should still get i become 173, a small increase on the previous year
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Sean Hewitt

Re: Grading changes one year on

Post by Sean Hewitt » Thu Jun 24, 2010 4:41 pm

Angus French wrote:Is a '4 point margin of error' correct? Wouldn't junior grades usually increase year on year?
They will and they do. But the 4 point margin of error statement is correct.

Take Rob Thompson as an example. His grade is 170. This is based on a performance last year of 165 (the grade he would have been given were he an adult) plus a junior suplement of 5 points (based on his age) which is intended to reflect his anticipated future improvement. So the grading system expects him to play the next season as a 170 and thats the grade he gets given.

It seems he actually played the season at a performance level of 168. So the grading system over-estimated his performance by 2 points - so a pretty good estimate I'd say. The grading system will assume he'll improve again next year, and give him a grade for next season of 173.

Angus French
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Re: Grading changes one year on

Post by Angus French » Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:35 pm

Sean, Yes, I see now. Thank you.