Post
by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:28 am
Posting in this thread to try and work out how things this season (in terms of my grade) might have been affected if there had been two lists published. I'll give a brief run-down of the chess played and the dates.
- June 2010 (6 games)
- September 2010 (6 games)
- October 2010 (10 games)
- November 2010 (10 games)
- December 2010 (16 games)
- January 2011 (17 games)
- February 2011 (6 games)
- March 2011 (11 games)
- April 2011 (9 games so far)
What I'm trying to work out is whether playing the second half of the year with an updated grade will make any difference to the grade published at the end of the season? To calculate this, I need to know where the cut-off point would be, and how league results would be handled (held over until the end of the season, or submitted in two lots?). The calculation won't be exact, as the grades of my opponents in the second half of the season will be what they were this year, rather than what they might have been if updated halfway through the year, but it should give some idea.
As an example, I put the cut-off date after Hastings, and recalculated from there, and there was little change. After Hastings, I had played 57 games for a 'live' rating of 169 (compared to my May 2010 grade of 159). I then used that rating of 169 for my grade for the 34 games I had played since Hastings, and the 'live' rating is 166.89 (using the 169 grade) compared to 166.45 (for the 159 grade), so very little difference. But that is probably because I am playing enough games for the system to be able to produce an accurate average that reflects my actual playing strength.
Interestingly, when I recalculated with higher and lower grades, I found that recalculating at the point where the new grade was at a low point tended to push the subsequent performances down, and when using a higher updated grade, the subsequent performance tended to be higher. I think this is an effect of the 10 games (from around 90) that have been against players who are 40 grading points above or below me. I don't normally play that many ungraded players, or those graded a long way above or below me, and this season has been unusual for that.