July 2014 gradings out

General discussions about ratings.
E Michael White
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by E Michael White » Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:56 pm

Richard Haddrell wrote:About the same as have gone up, at a guess. Mean grades, Jan 2014: Standard 132, Rapid 103. July 2014: Standard 133, Rapid 104. Last year's July figures were the same as this year's. I hope to publish more detail shortly on the SCCU website.
Richard. do you have any other information such as weighted averages or cross products? For example the total across all players of the products for each player of their games played multiplied by their new grade and the same with old grade if there is one.

Brian Valentine
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Brian Valentine » Fri Jul 25, 2014 4:52 pm

Michael,
I have done a lot of checking that does come in tables. I've failed to load an example to this post and I'm leaving for Mid Wales in the near future. I can say I haven't got things in the most illuminating state yet.

The grades have gone up 0.8 on average since the last list. If one look at the average grades in various categories (in cells gathering those with identical old codes (AtoE+X) and identical new codes) then there is the normal increase in grades for those who have "more games counting" than previously and a general decline for those who have less. This time the grade of new entrants in higher than usual and I suspect that is because of the large number of strong overseas players at Gibraltar. Hence my starting position is that there continues to be little (true) inflation or deflation.

I don't have the exact table (as I understand it) which you asked from Richard, but it would be easily be derived, but probably not in the next week. I can't quite see why game weighted averages add anything, so I'd be interested in your thinking.

Matt Fletcher
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Matt Fletcher » Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:42 pm

E Michael White wrote:
Richard Haddrell wrote:About the same as have gone up, at a guess. Mean grades, Jan 2014: Standard 132, Rapid 103. July 2014: Standard 133, Rapid 104. Last year's July figures were the same as this year's. I hope to publish more detail shortly on the SCCU website.
Richard. do you have any other information such as weighted averages or cross products? For example the total across all players of the products for each player of their games played multiplied by their new grade and the same with old grade if there is one.
Very quick unchecked analysis based on the downloads from the database site (happy to be corrected):

Unweighted average grades:
August 13 - 127.8
January 13 - 127.0
July 14 - 127.2

Weighted by games played (average games/person is just over 21 in all lists):
August 13 - 136.5
January 13 - 136.0
July 14 - 136.0

NB this is for people listed as "ENG" or blank in the federation column - including international players bumps up the unweighted averages by about 5 points and the weighted ones by about 3 in each case.

Was this roughly what you were after Michael? I haven't tried to exclude joiners or leavers from the analysis though I think I could do fairly easily.

Lewis Martin
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Lewis Martin » Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:09 pm

Rob Thompson wrote:
Dave Ewart wrote:Unchanged at 156, fairly happy with that. At least I'm the Highest-Ranked Ewart again, after Brian Ewart dropped from 159 to below me :-)
I think I'm going to have to wait until Ian Thompson retires from chess to claim that for my surname.
Like-wise for myself with regards to Andrew Martin. Though the gap is now only 15 different in terms of ECF (achievable in the not too distant future I hope), I still have nearly 300 to go for the FIDE rating! Certainly will be a while for the international rating even if I still play into my 30's!

David Blower
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by David Blower » Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:55 pm

Nicky Chorley wrote:I went up two points, getting ever closer to my goal of 100. I had a good season this year (even if my results show two wins and four losses. Two of those losses were good games), so I'm pleased with that.
Well done on your best ever grade. I hope it continues going up.

David Blower
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by David Blower » Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:05 am

I asked this question before but received no reply.

Do games that have been missed out but are submitted late count in the July 2014 grades, or the January 2015 grades.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:09 am

David Blower wrote: Do games that have been missed out but are submitted late count in the July 2014 grades, or the January 2015 grades.
The usual practice is that the July release is regarded as a high quality draft. If any errors are discovered through the intense scrutiny by 10,000 players with grades, the intent is to correct them in the "final" end August release. But if you have a summer league, it may be the practice of the league to submit all results for the January list.

David Blower
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by David Blower » Sat Jul 26, 2014 1:15 am

Roger de Coverly wrote:
David Blower wrote: Do games that have been missed out but are submitted late count in the July 2014 grades, or the January 2015 grades.
The usual practice is that the July release is regarded as a high quality draft. If any errors are discovered through the intense scrutiny by 10,000 players with grades, the intent is to correct them in the "final" end August release. But if you have a summer league, it may be the practice of the league to submit all results for the January list.
Thanks. 4 games of mine (not in the summer league) have been missed out. I have contacted the rest of the Brewood committee and our club captain is on the case.

It affects everyone at my club, (none of the July 2014 grades for any of our club members can possibly be right) but I do realise these things can happen. But everyone at the club has had between 2-5 games missed out!

Ian Thompson
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Ian Thompson » Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:56 am

David Blower wrote:Thanks. 4 games of mine (not in the summer league) have been missed out. I have contacted the rest of the Brewood committee and our club captain is on the case.

It affects everyone at my club, (none of the July 2014 grades for any of our club members can possibly be right) but I do realise these things can happen. But everyone at the club has had between 2-5 games missed out!
Graders received their copy of the new grading list last night with a comment that late results would be included in the August revision of the grading list, which is generally regarded as the definitive one, as Roger states above.

E Michael White
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by E Michael White » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:28 pm

Brian Valentine wrote:........ I can't quite see why game weighted averages add anything, so I'd be interested in your thinking.
In my way of thinking this might be a good index to monitor and useful in assessing the correction needed to adjust for deflation/inflation. It has real world meaning as it's the expected value of the grade of a player in a randomly selected game from last years input and so loosely connects with the overall level of chess played last season. The unweighted mean grade is the expected value of a randomly picked grade from the grading list, which carries much less meaning.

E Michael White
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by E Michael White » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:30 pm

Matt Fletcher wrote:Very quick unchecked analysis based on the downloads from the database site (happy to be corrected):

Unweighted average grades:
August 13 - 127.8
January 13 - 127.0
July 14 - 127.2

Weighted by games played (average games/person is just over 21 in all lists):
August 13 - 136.5
January 13 - 136.0
July 14 - 136.0

NB this is for people listed as "ENG" or blank in the federation column - including international players bumps up the unweighted averages by about 5 points and the weighted ones by about 3 in each case.

Was this roughly what you were after Michael? I haven't tried to exclude joiners or leavers from the analysis though I think I could do fairly easily.
Hello Matt, thanks for the figures they were exactly what I was after. I expected the weighted mean to be higher than the unweighted but I had no idea by how much.

I wouldn't produce anything more at this stage unless you want to for your own purposes. But if you do produce anything else I would be interested in seeing it; to see if I can derive anything from it !

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Michael Farthing
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Michael Farthing » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:46 pm

Matt, Should the January 13 figures in your listings actually be January 2014?

Matt Fletcher
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Matt Fletcher » Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:48 pm

Michael Farthing wrote:Matt, Should the January 13 figures in your listings actually be January 2014?
:oops: Yes, well spotted!

Richard Haddrell

Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Richard Haddrell » Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:21 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
David Blower wrote:Do games that have been missed out but are submitted late count in the July 2014 grades, or the January 2015 grades.
The usual practice is that the July release is regarded as a high quality draft. If any errors are discovered through the intense scrutiny by 10,000 players with grades, the intent is to correct them in the "final" end August release. But if you have a summer league, it may be the practice of the league to submit all results for the January list.
Ian Thompson wrote:Graders received their copy of the new grading list last night with a comment that late results would be included in the August revision of the grading list, which is generally regarded as the definitive one, as Roger states above.
Indeed. This is all true. But none of it's new. It’s the usual practice, and it’s in the Help page (why don’t people read the Help page?):
Grading Help page wrote:Results reported late. [Late results go into the following list, but…] An exception is made for events that miss a July list but are reported in time for the August revision. These are accepted for the summer grades in the interest of having an accurate August list for whole-season use.
I don’t know which Brewood event has been left out (club championship?), but it can be rescued if their grader sends it reasonably soon. I’ve already accepted three or four late events. It’s hard to see them coming sometimes. You’re not going to go far wrong with leagues and congresses, but club championships have a mind of their own. There’s a club which stopped sending their championship to the local grader two years ago. As far as I can make out, they have only just realised this and they want in again. So they sent him their 2013-14 results, late, and they’re in again.

So pester your organiser. The ECF won’t if they don’t know about it. To be fair there’s a couple of late events they do know about, and they're not ignoring them.

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Jon Mahony
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Re: July 2014 gradings out

Post by Jon Mahony » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:43 pm

Down to 131 from 140, I expected a drop as I had a pretty crap last couple of months of the season, but I was thinking more 135 territory - Oh well, lets see what we can do next season - Least I can play in a few congresses I’ve a chance of winning now :)
"When you see a good move, look for a better one!" - Lasker

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