Search found 32 matches

by Rhys Cumming
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

Re the latest cheating allegation and apologies if this information has already been provided but is it known whether the player's games failed both the lichess and the Ken Regan s/w tests? Have any appeals been lodged? Yes, I believe the games failed both the lichess and Ken Regan tests (exact fig...
by Rhys Cumming
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

It is of course an important discussion to be had, there are clearly weaknesses in the process and the algorithms themselves, but I think the maths shows that the vast majority of cases are pretty cut and dry. I'm rather less confident than that. Not that the maths is remotely nonsense of course, b...
by Rhys Cumming
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

I grasp that and it's fair enough as far as it goes: but you appreciate it does go to increase rather than decrease the degree to which this process is opaque rather than transparent. Yes I agree, but I think that lack of transparency works both ways. There is an understandable degree of scepticism...
by Rhys Cumming
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

There are clearly edge cases such as Justin's In my view "edge case" is not an appropriate term here this case seems about as slam dunk as you can get. Cool, can we see the games? It's obviously a difficult area in terms of how publicly to identify who the player in question is so I don't wish to p...
by Rhys Cumming
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

I wish we didn't have to be pedantic and digress. Yes, it does vary - but within limits! Sorry :) The much more helpful statement is that the statistics are generated on the assumption that the strength of a given move by a player is drawn from a normal distribution around a single underlying stren...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

It's very different. It's against the rules to have a phone on your person. Whether it was used or not is irrelevant. I'm referring to the rules on cheating. I agree the player would be forfeited for having a phone in their pocket in that game, but it is relevant to whether you can extend that case...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

"No statistical evidence is needed except to confirm on balance of probabilities that an engine had been utilised whilst in play.the sanction would have been heavier. Everyone accepts that it was a mistake by the player to overlook that the phone had been in the bag." Your point that it would be a c...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

I don't think it's been said, or even guessed at, what these "other methods" might be, or how the cheating was detected. It's not obvious to me why the 4NCL wouldn't want to disclose what the methods were, unless, maybe, lichess have prohibited them from doing so because they're doing something the...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

I'm unsure what you are actually proposing Roger. Unless the presence of an independent witness can be assured, on line chess is suitable only for training purposes, skittles in other words. Having such an extreme aversion to false positives is a legitimate position to take, but I would argue that ...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

Just an aside, but I doubt that doping in cycling (or athletics, or weightlifting, say) is that helpful a comparison in our particular case. It's probably fair to say that in sporting events, its effect is small, though real, and a major cause of its use is the belief that everybody else is doing i...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

What level of false accusations are people happy with? How about zero? In OTB chess, arbiters can be alerted about when the Regan program has suspicion. They should have to catch players in the act or get an admission before taking action. I'm unsure what you are actually proposing Roger. So in a c...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

Martin, They are not running the software on single games, they are running it on all the available games. They're obviously not waiting until the end of the season either though, so its definitely <1/40 years. What level of false accusations are people happy with? Even assuming the stats are worki...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

You've also had, what?, 2 people banned this year. So even at 1 in 40 years, you're getting 1/80 accusations wrong. That's not especially comforting. Also I think it should be made clear that it's better to admit guilt where a case is reasonably proven. Players and team captains need to think caref...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

So a z score of 4 equates to a circa 1 in 30,000 event. There are about 750 players in the 4NCL, so we would expect to naturally see a z score of 4 every 40 years. You can adjust your figures a bit, but even if it is a once in twenty year event then if Lichess bans are upheld by a Regan test with a...
by Rhys Cumming
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 825
Views: 37625

Re: 4NCL Online

I have indeed told my teammates that were they to be accused of cheating I would throw them under the bus at the first possible opportunity! Depends on the team mate a bit. For quite a few my a priori probability of them cheating online would be enormously low, so I'd be very sceptical of anything ...