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by Roger Lancaster
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

It's a neural net, which needs to be trained by examining games: There's probably a very simple answer to this question but, if Paul is correct in stating that Lichess use a neural net, would I be correct in thinking that the statistical approaches discussed here wouldn't apply, which would open up...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger, Let’s say I measure the heights of everyone in the 4NCL they will be a normal distribution. If I get them to stand in height order and I measure them it will still be a normal distribution. If I get them to stand in height order and only measure the first hundred that will be a normal distri...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Adam, in my original post I made a point of saying: "I don't for one moment doubt the integrity of Professor Regan, nor do I doubt that he has taken a scholarly approach to this. Whether, in 10 years time, it will still be regarded as the Holy Grail strikes me as rather less certain". That's still m...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger, I have a titled player account at Lichess and a normal account at chess.com. I could give you access to my chess.com account which has an established history of playing at a reasonably high level and you could attempt to use your computer to mimic that level of play or push it higher. You wo...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger, “ The essence of a normal distribution is that it relies on successive events being random or independent,” This is just wrong See, for example, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/normal%20distribution Definition of normal distribution: a probability density function that approximate...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Now I must admit that although I have downloaded Ken Regan’s papers I haven’t (yet) got round to reading them, so I’m not really in the area of being able to do a proper critique of his method, but when I heard him going on about Z values in Tuesday’s webinar I realised that it is all based on the ...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger, If I understand you correctly, you are now talking about a hypothetical example which has nothing to do with anything that is happening in British Chess or anything that has happened historically. You’ve got me, I don’t know. Matt - You evidently don't. I'm not discussing a hypothetical exam...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Since Lichess frequently have no idea who that person is, they can have no idea of his or her playing strength. Without this, they can make no remotely accurate assumption of the 'expected value' in the statistics. If I understand it correctly, the 4NCL have the use of a black box which when run ag...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun May 31, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger, If I understand you correctly, you are now talking about a hypothetical example which has nothing to do with anything that is happening in British Chess or anything that has happened historically. You’ve got me, I don’t know. Matt - You evidently don't. I'm not discussing a hypothetical exam...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat May 30, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Well I just suggest you have a think about it. Work out if any pgns for a whole event exist in the case you are talking about. Pick a rating you want to use to start off and use your imagination to work out what the result will be. Over-the-board events, if one can be reasonably sure that a player ...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat May 30, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

I'd be a tad more cautious than Matt and, since this is something I seem to have omitted from my earlier post in an effort to keep it to a manageable length, I'll try to explain why here. Some while ago, a previously completely unknown teenager emerged on the English chess scene playing to a standa...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat May 30, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Roger L>The significance of this case was that statistical methods alone, far from determining that he was a cheat, could not even put a probability on this being true. That's because all statistical methods of which I am aware rely on differences between actual outcomes and expected outcomes.< Don...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat May 30, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

The significance of this case was that statistical methods alone, far from determining that he was a cheat, could not even put a probability on this being true. That's because all statistical methods of which I am aware rely on differences between actual outcomes and expected outcomes. In this case...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat May 30, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

Mick, We were told last night that those flagged by Lichess were pretty evenly spread across the leagues, but demographically they were predominantly young players. False positives do happen, but from what I have seen I would say it was highly unlikely that there were two or more false positive in ...
by Roger Lancaster
Fri May 29, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems
Replies: 187
Views: 3614

Re: Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

I don’t think they can be using 5 sigma right now, else no one in the 4NCL on line would be that near getting banned (on moves alone.). Well, like a number of other forumites, I have just come off a 2 hour conference call, and that is simply not true. Having been on the same conference call I can c...