Search found 1031 matches

by Roger Lancaster
Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: General Chat
Topic: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
Replies: 1185
Views: 59468

Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:39 am
Expect an ECF website announcement later today clarifying the somewhat different position as regards supervised junior chess activities.
https://www.englishchess.org.uk/covid-19-update/
by Roger Lancaster
Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Junior Chess
Topic: Future of EPSCA Schools Competition
Replies: 48
Views: 2557

Re: Future of EPSCA Schools Competition

Carl Hibbard wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:37 am
I am not sure I want to moderate a handbags incident :roll:
One might rather hope that respected forumites such as Andrew and Paul can resolve this privately between themselves.
by Roger Lancaster
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: General Chat
Topic: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal
Replies: 1185
Views: 59468

Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

They are breaking the law. "No mixing of households indoors and outdoors" - unless they all live in the same household. The rules for "community premises" as I imagine the CCF building would be defined are subtly different as you could have more than six people as long as they are in separate group...
by Roger Lancaster
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Junior Chess
Topic: U11 Junior Tournament in Oxfordshire
Replies: 22
Views: 1855

Re: U11 Junior Tournament in Oxfordshire

I think you will find there's an ECF website announcement scheduled for later today which Joseph will find comforting.
by Roger Lancaster
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Deaths & Obituaries
Topic: Robert Chaloner (Bob) Pentecost 1935-2020
Replies: 8
Views: 1311

Re: Robert Chaloner (Bob) Pentecost 1935-2020

While I can't say I knew Bob as well as others here, our paths certainly crossed and I knew him as a useful player and good organiser. Sorry to hear of his passing.
by Roger Lancaster
Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

It really doesn't matter what the overall standard deviation is because we only care about the part of the distribution where players are massively outperforming their rating. I'm sorry but this indicates a failure to grasp the subject. It really does matter. It matters because, if there are irregu...
by Roger Lancaster
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Roger, I think it is pretty well established that average online performance is lower than average OTB performance. This is reflected in the 4NCL graphs. We could easily incorporate this into the Regan results by lowering everyone's rating by 100 points and increasing their z scores by circa 0.5 Al...
by Roger Lancaster
Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

The graph reflects the difference between actual online performance and expected OTB performance. Except, Matt, that you answered my earlier question, " Do you believe that average online and OTB performance is indeed equal? " by saying " I believe the online performance will be lower ". Let's assu...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Roger, I believe the online performance will be lower, so the 4NCL underestimates cheating. I believe that is right and proper and gives more protection to players from wrongful accusations. Excellent, Matt, we're making progress. Now, as regards the OTB graph, I hope you'll agree that the data ref...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Roger Lancaster wrote " As to the respective qualities of play [measuring online, sans cheating, against over-the-board] my gut feel tends to be with Joseph" So the evidence that you presented as showing the 4NCL exaggerated cheating, your gut feeling now suggests underestimates cheating. Matt, you...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Thanks also to John. My problem is the widespread belief that Ken Regan's methodology was handed down to Moses on Mount Sinai and must therefore - something that, in fairness, Ken is at pains to deny - be correct in every last detail. That's the same mindset as the Post Office directors who decided ...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Thanks to Joseph and Paul for their comments earlier. As to the respective qualities of play [measuring online, sans cheating, against over-the-board] my gut feel tends to be with Joseph although I have no evidence to support this - except that there's a study by three Dutch academics [one an IM] of...
by Roger Lancaster
Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

As I said, I find it hard to believe the people responsible for the underlying statistical treatments of the data available to them - both in the 4NCL and the wider online & otb chess world - have somehow got it basically wrong. John, I don't want to dwell on this forever but my comments yesterday ...
by Roger Lancaster
Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

John, the most obvious flaw with the original graph is that it treats two distributions as having the same mean and SD despite the fact that, while one has 68% of the data falling within the 1>z>-1 range as expected for a Normal distribution, the other has only 58%. All else follows from that.
by Roger Lancaster
Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: 4NCL
Topic: 4NCL Online
Replies: 908
Views: 46662

Re: 4NCL Online

Paul, part of my argument was that the online data showed - as I felt might intuitively have been expected - a greater dispersion [variously known also as variation, scatter or spread] than the over-the-board data. The intuitive reasons were more or less those mentioned by Matt - primarily distracti...