4NCL Season 2023-24

[Neil Graham]

Team captains/managers have received the e-mail below from Mike Truran this evening. I don't think there is any embargo on reproducing it:-

Although venue contracts for 2023-2024 are still being finalised, we thought it was important to let you have as early an update as possible on how things are shaping up for the forthcoming 2023-2024 season – in particular so that you know before the final weekend of this season what we expect next season’s format to be.

To start with, a little context. As we have started to emerge from the worst of the pandemic, so the hotel industry has it seems decided pretty much ‘en masse’ that it’s a good idea not only to reflect current inflationary trends in their pricing but also to try to recoup losses incurred during Covid as fast as they can. As a result bedroom rates in general have rocketed and playing space at discounted rates is no longer on the table as an option in return for high bedroom occupation. Leisure and special interest groups generally are now it seems seen by the hotel industry as undesirable business compared with the higher-margin business they are presumably hoping to attract instead (although quite how hotels expect to fill their boots with, for example, wedding and conference business on a longer term basis once wedding backlogs are cleared and businesses decide to stay with Team/Zooms etc rather than having face-to-face meetings rather escapes us).

Anyway… we have, along with other chess organisations specifically and leisure/special interest groups generally, struggled to locate venues at acceptable venue hire and bedroom rates, and although it’s to Guaranteed Event’s credit that we have any venues at all, the difficulties are illustrated by the fact that only two venues have been willing to provide anything like competitive terms for more than a single weekend – and: (a) the terms on offer are still much less favourable than previously; (b) we have only been offered a limited number of weekends (on the basis that the hotels would rather hold out for higher margin business than take more of ours – see above).
This has had the following consequences:

1. Charges for venue hire have increased significantly vs 2022-2023 (with the expectation on the part of hotels that significant numbers of bedrooms will still be booked regardless). Guaranteed Events will continue to absorb these as they have done in past seasons, but the hire charge increases have inevitably further eroded their margins (which were already fairly thin compared with, for example, their bridge holidays business).

2. The net bedroom rates quoted to Guaranteed Events (the rates used as the basis for the bedroom block allocations that Guaranteed Events commit to and pay the hotels for) have increased by close to 30% (with many other venues quoting net rate increases in excess of 50%). Had these increases been passed on in full to our chess players we would have been looking at gross bedroom rates of around £90. Guaranteed Events are willing to absorb a large part of the increase so as to keep the headline rate at £79, but again that means that their own margins have been reduced.

3. As a result of 1 and 2 above Guaranteed Events are no longer in a position to give us commission on bedroom bookings.

4. One of the hotels that has offered us terms has a maximum playing space of 510 sq m. As a result we are going to be limited as regards the number of teams we can cater for next season – in practice 24 teams in Divisions 1 and 2 and 40 teams in what we expect will be a single Division 3, so a total of 64 teams.

5. The financial effect of 3 and 4 above amounts to around £16,000 lost revenue to the 4NCL (£11,000 lost bedroom commission and £5,000 lost entry fees). The only way to cover these losses is by increasing entry fees.

6. In calculating the expected level of entry fees (expected to be in the region of £600-625 for Divs 1 and 2 and £450-475 for Div 3) we’ve applied the principle that all divisions should contribute equally to the league’s running costs. As usual, our costings are based on achieving break-even and not making any surplus. The cost per game works out at around £7 or so – so not dissimilar to the cost per game of a weekend congress, although we accept that that’s small consolation for entry fee increases of this scale.

7. Dates and venues for next season are, subject contract, expected to be as follows:

Division 1 & 2 Venue

3-5 November Milton Keynes
12-14 January Warwick
9-11 February Telford
15-17 March Telford
3-6 May Telford

Division 3 Venue

17-19 November Telford
5-7 January Telford
9-11 February Warwick
8-10 March Warwick
3-6 May Warwick

The allocation of divisions to venues is still provisional at this stage and may be reviewed.

8. Divisions 1 and 2 will continue as 12 team all-play-alls. Division 3 will be played as a Swiss, combining the present Divs 3 East and West and, we expect, 16 teams from the present Division 4 to make a total of 40 teams. Promotion and relegation arrangements as at the end of the present season will remain unchanged.

9. We envisage that invitations to play next season will be a staged process: (a) firstly, Div 1, Div 2, Div 3 East and Div 3 West teams (as adjusted for promotion/relegation arrangements as at the end of the season) will be given two or three weeks to enter; (b) the top 16 teams from Division 4 (again, adjusted for promotion/relegation as above), or as many teams are required above 16 to take account of any teams not renewing their entries from (a) above, will then be given a further two or three weeks to enter; (c) if any places remain unfilled they will be offered to teams on a first come first served basis.

We can only apologise for next season’s limit on team numbers and increased costs. We’ve taken the view that a smaller 4NCL costing more to enter is still a better thing than no 4NCL at all, and we hope that captains and players will take that view as well and continue to support the 4NCL – support that has been such an impressive feature of the league over the years. We hope that if we can survive these difficult times in reasonably good shape we will be in a decent position to expand again in the future (and reduce entry fees) as the economic position in the UK improves and the hotel industry takes a more realistic view of things.

[Ljubica Lazarevic]

I suspect the hotels are going to be in for a rude awakening when who they thought were going to use their venues are off overseas instead

[Nick Ivell]

For a variety of reasons I no longer play in 4NCL, but I very much hope it is able to continue.

[Neil Graham]

As I understood from recent reports there are 51,000 asylum seekers housed in hotels at the cost of £6,000,000 daily. I can remember when the 4NCL was summarily dismissed from the Holiday Inn, Maidenhead when the government requisitioned the whole hotel for this purpose and another venue had to be found at short notice.

Without entering into a debate about current political thinking, current policy is now to move these people into old army camps, detention centres, barges or even cruise ships. In addition the government wishes to remove people to Rwanda and has to date paid out £140,000,000 to this country with no sign of this taking place. Presumably if/when any of the above takes place there may be some hotel space available but I'm not holding my breath.

[Richard Bates]

And the Govt as a general rule massively overpays as well.

[Nick Ivell]

Seems to me that the whole business model is collapsing.

That model being (I apply my own spin): 'chessplayers don't like spending money. We offer an affordable stay at an excellent venue, so long as enough rooms are taken.'

[Roger Lancaster]

Seems to me that the whole business model is collapsing.

That model being (I apply my own spin): 'chessplayers don't like spending money. We offer an affordable stay at an excellent venue, so long as enough rooms are taken.'

Not sure it's quite as simple as that. Last weekend, five of our team stayed at the nearby Staverton Hotel as the venue hotel was already showing at fully booked. At breakfast next morning, the adjacent table contained another 3 or 4 chess players and, for all I know, more appeared after I had finished eating and left. That's 8 people I can positively identify who would have stayed at Mercure, given the chance, and I don't doubt there were others. Conclusion - either Guaranteed Events underestimated demand or they were caught out by last-minute cancellations by over-bookers.

[Graham Borrowdale]

Seems to me that the whole business model is collapsing.

That model being (I apply my own spin): 'chessplayers don't like spending money. We offer an affordable stay at an excellent venue, so long as enough rooms are taken.'

While I don’t necessarily disagree with the general point, I suspect that the hotels believe they can make more money from customers other than chess players, even if the hotels are full on 4NCL weekends. Wedding parties will always spend more than a group of chess players, especially those ordering pizza deliveries.

[NickFaulks]

And the Govt as a general rule massively overpays as well.

Strictly speaking Serco, who have been given the Govt's Platinum Card, with a nice markup for themselves.

[Roger Lancaster]

Seems to me that the whole business model is collapsing.

That model being (I apply my own spin): 'chessplayers don't like spending money. We offer an affordable stay at an excellent venue, so long as enough rooms are taken.'

While I don’t necessarily disagree with the general point, I suspect that the hotels believe they can make more money from customers other than chess players, even if the hotels are full on 4NCL weekends. Wedding parties will always spend more than a group of chess players, especially those ordering pizza deliveries.

Wedding parties, particularly those where alcohol flows in generous measure, are always going to be more profitable. What I think the hotels have to weigh up is the certainty of a modest but certain chess-related return against the higher risk/reward decision to see if a wedding party will book.

[Richard Bates]

In my experience 4NCL hotels are often quite unprepared for, and therefore often fail to take advantage of, the amounts that groups of chess players are prepared to drink…

[LawrenceCooper]

In my experience 4NCL hotels are often quite unprepared for, and therefore often fail to take advantage of, the amounts that groups of chess players are prepared to drink…

[Roger de Coverly]

8. Divisions 1 and 2 will continue as 12 team all-play-alls. Division 3 will be played as a Swiss, combining the present Divs 3 East and West and, we expect, 16 teams from the present Division 4 to make a total of 40 teams. Promotion and relegation arrangements as at the end of the present season will remain unchanged.

What may be a key issue for some squads is whether with two or more teams in Division 3, they are expected to field separate squads.

[SMoss]

Telford is too far from London, and Warwick probably is too. The lower divisions of the 4NCL should be regionalised – North, Midlands and South. Then many players would not have to stay in hotels and the cost of taking part would be greatly reduced. Div 1 could remain consolidated – many players are, after all, getting conditions. But the other three divisions could all be regionalised. You could always have play-offs for promotion on a final weekend where they come together if that was thought necessary. I say three divisions, because I think it is essential to keep division 4. A 40-team division 3 will be hopeless unwieldy and would have too great a range of strengths, leading to many mismatches. 4NCL need to completely rethink their plans for 2023/24, and, as others have said, it may be that the business model needs to change.

[Roger de Coverly]

Telford is too far from London, and Warwick probably is too.

From my part of the world, which could be considered as junction 4 of the M40, it's about two hours to Telford and one hour to Warwick on a Saturday morning. The 4NCL has been in Telford many times before. I think it somewhere with perhaps a surplus of hotels for the demand to visit the place between November and May over weekends .

The lower divisions of the 4NCL should be regionalised – North, Midlands and South. Then many players would not have to stay in hotels and the cost of taking part would be greatly reduced.

That was the format in 2021-22 (last season). The 4NCL business model relies or perhaps relied on there being a trade off between hotel bookings and the hotel's willingness to make its conference space available for nothing or discounted. Midlands and North struggled to get enough hotel bookings for viability.

A 40-team division 3 will be hopeless unwieldy and would have too great a range of strengths, leading to many mismatches.

I don't think a Swiss with 40 participants over 11 rounds is a particularly difficult proposition and being a Swiss, teams will find their own level. If the number of teams has to be restricted, that's likely to exclude some of the weaker teams anyway.