4NCL Northern - Round 7

[Sean Hewitt]

Of course, as a statistician I know that the mean average of opposition does not really say anything in isolation. I'll have a look at the numbers later if I have the time and see if anything meaningful can be extrapolated.

Of course, the real acid test as to what advantage, if any, northern teams have had will be how they do in the final weekend!

[Mick Norris]

Sean

How the teams do may depend on the strength of teams they put out

How are you going to judge the results?

If Bradford beat everyone, does that mean the NL is stronger, or just that Bradford are? If they lose a match or two, does that mean the NL is weaker, or just Bradford are having a bad weekend?

[David Pardoe]

Some interesting points, but we`re in danger of missing a few things...
Firstly, the Hinckley Finals w/e will provide an opportunity for some interesting chess...thats the main thing.
Second, regardless of all these stats being bandied around, the basic framework looks reasonably ok..
If its an easy touch winning the Northern `lights` 4NCL super league, then maybe other teams can join, boost numbers, and see what they can do.....this would be a great positive step forward for 4NCL.
Remember also that the `south` has some advantages in being long established...and these Finals are being played on `Southern territory`... Perhaps next years Finals could be played in Sheffield to balance things up....

And also, teams can change dramatically in a fairly short space of time... I note the addition of some strong northern players has helped boost e2e4 this season, who were previously contemplating extinction, I believe.

Anyway, I`m sure that everything will work out fine, and I`m hoping that more teams will be encouraged to join the Northern league next season and help promote and encourage further take-up for the 4NCL chess.
Its probably also worth looking at any measures that might encourage greater support, so I hope any constructive suggestions will be put forward and acted on... A look at venues might be worthwhile at some point...maybe with Sheffield/Chesterfield as a possibility. A Sheffield based team would be good, as they have a strong base of players in the Sheffield leagues...such areas can hopefully sustain strong team support. Central Lancs stands out as another area from which strong support would be welcome. If any players from these areas would like to try out the 4NCL Northern..they can contact Manchester, who I`m sure would be glad to offer chances. Equally, other teams may welcome some `guest` players. It had struck me that maybe a `Trialists` team might be worth setting up which might cater for such players...but I do know that teams are keen to add to there squads...
A call to players, and those thinking of entering new teams...food for thought.

[Alan Walton]

Of course, the real acid test as to what advantage, if any, northern teams have had will be how they do in the final weekend!

One thing we might see is the Manchester and Aigburth teams winning quite comfortably in the coming weekend, with both of them being on only 2 match points, they will play the very weak teams at the bottom of the table

It has worked out quite well that only two teams are in the hunt for promotion from the northern league, and I suspect that these teams would have been up there if they have played in the normal 3rd Div

Unfortunately, from what I gather that if Bradford and Atticus both get promoted and presumably take their pormotion, that the Northern League may have to find 3 "new" teams, and ideally 4 to match it upto the ideal 9 teams for an APA, do people think that this would happen

[Michael Yeo]

...and these Finals are being played on `Southern territory`...

While it is true that the completion of the Weymouth relief road ahead of the Olympics will cut the travelling time of some of the Wessex 2 players by as much as 5 minutes, their journey to the "Southern" venue will still take considerably longer than almost all the Northern teams players!

[Mick Norris]

Alan

There is no chance of the Manchester Manticores winning comfortably in the coming weekend

Winning may be a possibility, but I wouldn't put any money on it

It is perhaps more interesting to see how the middle of the NL gets on i.e. Holmes Chapel, Jorvik and Cheddleton 2 - have they had it tough by playing Bradford and Spirit of Atticus, or easy by playing Manchester and Aigburth?

[Alan Walton]

A Sheffield based team would be good, as they have a strong base of players in the Sheffield leagues.

Presumably, you have checked that the top Sheffield based players don't already play the 4NCL

Looking at results and registrations, I know alot already play for teams in the 1st and 2nd Div through White Rose and Betsson (and others), and also within the current Bradford squad there are quite a few registered and playing

Another point is that a Sheffield team might think that the 1-1.5 hour drive to Hinckley/Daventry four times a year, may outweigh the travelling in the current Northern venues

[Alan Walton]

Alan

There is no chance of the Manchester Manticores winning comfortably in the coming weekend

Winning may be a possibility, but I wouldn't put any money on it

It is perhaps more interesting to see how the middle of the NL gets on i.e. Holmes Chapel, Jorvik and Cheddleton 2 - have they had it tough by playing Bradford and Spirit of Atticus, or easy by playing Manchester and Aigburth?

Don't sell yourself short, have you seen some of the teams at the bottom of the normal league, even our kids are alot stronger than them, and on paper you are at least as strong as our kids

[Alan Walton]

...and these Finals are being played on `Southern territory`...

While it is true that the completion of the Weymouth relief road ahead of the Olympics will cut the travelling time of some of the Wessex 2 players by as much as 5 minutes, their journey to the "Southern" venue will still take considerably longer than almost all the Northern teams players!

You might be right here Michael, last weekend I left Oldham at 10.30am and arrived in Daventry at 12.30pm (and I was stuck behind a caravan going over the pennines), I think I could easily do Hinckley in just under 2 hours, so some "Southern" players may have longer journeys mainly due to the fact that outside London the motorway network isn't as concentrated as that of the Northern pennine corridor

[Alan Walton]

I'm certainly not going to do any more maths.
But as the average strength of opposition for Bradford and Atticus is in the region of ECF grade 165 - 170, then it will be a similar figure for all the Northern League teams as we have all played the same opposition.
This means that all the other northern teams will have played considerably stronger opposition than the southern teams on the same score.

Bob, I think that you are correct with this one

It is only Bradford and Atticus who have had comparable pairings than those of Brown Jack and Wessex 2

That is why I expect the other Northern Teams to maybe do better in the merged league due to the lower rated teams within the league, 3Cs 2 average grade can be anything between 130-160 and we are only on 5 match points

[Sean Hewitt]

Second, regardless of all these stats being bandied around, the basic framework looks reasonably ok..

With a few tweaks to level the playing field, yes.

I note the addition of some strong northern players has helped boost e2e4 this season, who were previously contemplating extinction, I believe.

Really David, this is utter tosh, even coming from you! David Hulmes joined us last season after North West Eagles folded and that's it. And three ex-Nottingham players joined this season after the Nottingham fall out with the 4NCL.

Our 4 teams would not have folded had these players not joined. Indeed, we tend to gave more players available than we need each weekend.

Remember also that the `south` has some advantages in being long established...and these Finals are being played on `Southern territory`

A man who thinks Leicestershire is in the south needs to buy a new map

[LozCooper]

Remember also that the `south` has some advantages in being long established...and these Finals are being played on `Southern territory`

A man who thinks Leicestershire is in the south needs to buy a new map

I'm always being told by my southern friends that the North starts once you leave Watford

[Andrew Wainwright]

Both Bradford teams look forward to facing our respective opponents in Rds 9, 10 and 11. It will be great to play against some "new faces" and to also feel part of the overall "4NCL Family" rather than just the "poor Northern relation". If Bradford A do well and get promoted then that will be a great achievement. We will then need to decide whether we accept promotion or remain in the Northern League.

Personally I would like the 4NCL Management team to rename the divisions next season to "Division 3 North" and "Division 3 South". The name "Northern League" does not really help the identity of this new branch of 4NCL chess.

I hope that the "Northern League" is given time to develop as I believe that it is an important step forward for chess in the North of the country. Particularly it provides promising young players the opportunity to play FIDE rated games under time controls that they are not familiar with. Bradford is a prime example of this - A.Lang, A.Bak, S.Jones, L.Brijmohun, M.Edwards-Wrights, O.Hackner and J.Roberts are all under 25 yrs old and have all enjoyed playing for us this season.

What we are also failing to consider is that a lot of the new players to the league do not yet have FIDE ratings and so using their ECF conversions is not always a true reflection of their strength. Take for example Andy Bak who has rotated between our B Team's top boards and our A Team's bottom boards this season - we has played 7 games without loss, his ELO conversion garde is (1946) but he has held his own against much higher rated opposition.

I do not believe that we can truely judge whether the Northern League teams "deserve" promotion until the promotion contenders meet over the board at Hickley!!! Can't wait

[Sean Hewitt]

Of course, the real acid test as to what advantage, if any, northern teams have had will be how they do in the final weekend!

I do not believe that we can truely judge whether the Northern League teams "deserve" promotion until the promotion contenders meet over the board at Hickley!!! Can't wait

Absolutely!

[David Pardoe]

The key point I`m making is that we need to encourage support for 4NCL Northern (...and the rest).
We need to be mindful of the need to tailor things to meet `local` needs.
Yes, Aigsburth certainly did field a very respectable team at Crewe...so much so that in the `jamboree` 8th round they scored 2 points... ! Well done to them...it shows that they are definately `top 4` material. And it also reflects much credit on Manchester, who, despite being outgraded on most boards, took 2 well earned points off them in the 7th round clash of the `tail order`...excellent stuff, and shows a vibrant competition, with players giving it there best shot throughout.
Well done to John Carleton also for his excellent and entertaining reports on the 4NCL Northern matches. They give a really good insight into the camaradary & general good fun/social (and challenges..!) that these matches have brought.
Sean..we dont mind you borrowing some of our players. ..more than just one.
Watford in my book rates as `deep south`....and those on the western fringes probably should consider travelling by private jet.
And other so called `weak` teams in the 3rd Div.....maybe they should split those 36 teams into two divisions...
Certainly some movement to add balance might be worth considering.....