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Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 11:57 am
by Leonard Barden
I'm sure Jack, Lawrence and/or Sean will correct me if I'm wrong, but this is how I see it. At this moment Akshaya, for the purposes of the exercise still 2223 (Sean gives 2233 above, but I assume this is a typo) is playing John Richardson, 2311, a difference of 78 points which translates to an expectation for Akshaya of '0.44.

If she happens to win, not likely as Black but possible given her current surge, she would gain 0.56x40= 23 Fide points, enough raise her rating to 2326 and make her world No1 for U15 girls on the live ratings (see my table higher up this thread) by a late lunch.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 11:57 am
by LawrenceCooper
NickFaulks wrote:
LawrenceCooper wrote: My first one was 2430 (and downhill ever since)
But for six months you were world #433. I never knew that.
Even today I remain within three thousand, four hundred and eighty-eight places of that :lol:

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 11:59 am
by LawrenceCooper
Leonard Barden wrote:
Leonard Barden wrote:I'm sure Jack, Laurence and/ or Sean will correct me if I'm wrong, but this is how I see it. At this moment Akshaya, for the purposes of the exercise still 2223 (Sean gives 2233 above, but I assume this is a typo) is playing John Richardson, 2311, a difference of 78 points which translates to an expectation for Akshaya of '0.44. If she happens to win, not likely as Black but possible given her current surge, she would gain 0.56x40= 23 Fide points, enough raise her rating to 2326 and make her world No1 for U15 girls on the live ratings (see my table higher up this thread) by a late lunchtime.
I'll leave the calculation to others but will correct you on the spelling of my name, it's with a w not a u.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 12:03 pm
by Leonard Barden
Sorry, Lawrence, I'd already corrected that before you posted.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 12:07 pm
by Christopher Kreuzer
NickFaulks wrote:
LawrenceCooper wrote: My first one was 2430 (and downhill ever since)
But for six months you were world #433. I never knew that.
Is that among active or inactive players? (And which year was this [2001? Was your first FIDE rating at the same time as you [Loz] obtained your IM title?], and what page can you look that up on, Nick?) For the record, Lawrence is currently ranked 6259 among all players and 3921 among all active players. (Looking at the additional posts, I think Nick's reference to a ranking of 433 must refer to active players - no-one quotes the rankings among all players anyway, do they?)

A rating of 2430 now gets you a ranking of around 1605 (active) and 2120 (all).

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 12:09 pm
by LawrenceCooper
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
NickFaulks wrote:
LawrenceCooper wrote: My first one was 2430 (and downhill ever since)
But for six months you were world #433. I never knew that.
Is that among active or inactive players? (And which year was this [2001? Was your first FIDE rating at the same time as you [Loz] obtained your IM title?], and what page can you look that up on, Nick?) For the record, Lawrence is currently ranked 6259 among all players and 3921 among all active players. (Looking at the additional posts, I think Nick's reference to a ranking of 433 must refer to active players - no-one quotes the rankings among all players anyway, do they?)

A rating of 2430 now gets you a ranking of around 1605 (active) and 2120 (all).
It was in 1988 based on the Lloyds Bank Masters in the summer of 1987. Clearly sleeping on Ali Mortazavi's floor brought out the best in me :)

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 12:40 pm
by Sean Hewitt
Leonard Barden wrote:I'm sure Jack, Lawrence and/or Sean will correct me if I'm wrong, but this is how I see it. At this moment Akshaya, for the purposes of the exercise still 2223 (Sean gives 2233 above, but I assume this is a typo) is playing John Richardson, 2311, a difference of 78 points which translates to an expectation for Akshaya of '0.44.

If she happens to win, not likely as Black but possible given her current surge, she would gain 0.56x40= 23 Fide points, enough raise her rating to 2326 and make her world No1 for U15 girls on the live ratings (see my table higher up this thread) by a late lunch.
By my reckoning she would go to 2327.8 in that scenrio so your premise about her potential ranking is correct!

It's also worth noting that she will be rated 2267 for the month of June, with a k factor of 40 so there may be further opportunities for her.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 12:59 pm
by Leonard Barden
Does she have gcse exams in June, or is this not until 2017?

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 1:08 pm
by Sean Hewitt
Sean Hewitt wrote:By my reckoning she would go to 2327.8 in that scenrio so your premise about her potential ranking is correct!
Didn't quite work out Open Results

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 1:21 pm
by Christopher Kreuzer
You made me think she had lost! It was a draw, so let's see what the next round pairings will be and whether Hebden or Burrows can join Bates in the lead. EDIT: It is 7 rounds, not 5, so fixed my error there.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 1:22 pm
by Leonard Barden
The way you phrased that I assumed she'd lost! Anyway, up to GU15 world No4 for now and maybe more chances later in the weekend.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 1:24 pm
by Leonard Barden
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:You made me think she had lost! It was a draw, so let's see what the final round pairings will be and whether Hebden or Burrows can join Bates in the lead.
There are three rounds to go.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 4:33 pm
by Leonard Barden
Seeing that the best under-15 girls in the world are all in the low 2300s (though no slouches, for example the Indian R Vaishali gained her first WIM norm in the very strong 2015 Qatar Open) I looked at the best under-16s and was rather stunned to see that the No1, Davaademberel Nomin-Erdene from Mongolia, is rated a massive 2448 having been as high as 2490.

Given the average 200 points male-female differential, that's something like a female equivalent of Wei Yi, Samuel Sevian or Jeffery Xiong, ie the absolute global top for someone in their mid-teens.


Then I noticed that on this lady's bio page on chessgames.com there is just a single but long comment, posted a month ago on 30 April, which I reproduce below:


She lost 42 rating points in the last month playing in the Asian Nations Cup and in the Dubai Open. Maybe at 2490 she was a bit overrated.
I also noticed that she earned the titles WGM and IM in 2015 playing exclusively in round-robin events in Kecskemet, Hungary. She also has already 2 GM norms (!) gained in similar r-r events in Novi Sad, Serbia: https://ratings.fide.com/title_norm...

She is mentioned in this Chessbase's article about August 2015 rating lists: http://en.chessbase.com/post/august... <In January 2014, Mongolian player Nomin-Erdene Davaademberel, 13 years old, was rated a very modest 1834, certainly not worth noting. Sure, she had won the Asian u10 championship in 2010, but since nothing that stood out had materialized since then there was no reason to have any particular expectations at this point. After being inactive for over six months, her rating began to take off event after event and by October 2014 she was already 2107, until the Elo explosion in which she leapt from 2107 to 2314 the next months, for a 207 Elo gain. Playing every single month her rating fluctuated considerably as she gained 40 Elo in some events, lost it in others, and by June this year was at 2303. Now, after a month's rest, rethinking or regrouping, she experienced another boom and has gained 125 Elo, taking it to a very impressive 2428. This also ranks her world no.52 among all female players.



On a different chessgames.com page I (LB) saw that D N-E had a higher rating than any of the competitors in the 2015 World Girls U20, where the No1 seed was rated 2417 , but she did not take part there. Mongolia was represented in that championship at Khanty-Mansiysk by two girls rated respectively 2265 and 2201.

Let's just say that the above makes me wonder. Does it strike any concerns among any other Forum reader?

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 4:52 pm
by IM Jack Rudd
I think we need to subject this player's strength to testing of some sort. I volunteer to play her in a FIDE-rated match.

Re: e2e4 Gatwick Congress - 27-30 May 2016

Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 5:46 pm
by Leonard Barden
Ach, I now find that the Mongolian girl wonder is actually playing in the current Zalakaros Open in Hungary, and lost in the very first round to our own Brian Tarhon! Eat your heart out, Jack. The 52 move game, which seems \at a glance a calm and methodical crush by Brian Tarhon, can be found on chess2700.com if you go to the women's top 50. I am not expert enough to bring it here, but maybe somebody else can.