Coronavirus leading to cancellation?

[John McKenna]

Bad Wiessee has just been cancelled; and I have received a refund, but no explanation, from St Albans, so I am guessing it has been cancelled too.

Just to put things in perspective: According to the World Health Organisation, flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people a year worldwide.
The coronavirus has so far killed just over 4,000 people, and the numbers catching it are already falling in China (if one can trust their official figures), which suggests the coronavirus is not the answer to global overpopulation.

Though this article suggests that the USA is peculiarly unprepared to meet a crisis over this.

From what Tim S wrote -

... Just to put things in perspective: According to the World Health Organisation, flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people a year worldwide.
The coronavirus has so far killed just over 4,000 people, and the numbers catching it are already falling in China (if one can trust their official figures)...

Then influenza, which is allowed to circulate freely in the world's population, can result in an annual death total in the above range.

Also, take into account that there are vaccines to reduce the number of deaths from what would be a higher range of figures if no vaccines were available.

Anyone care to guesstimate the number of deaths worldwide if Covid-19 were allowed to circulate freely for a year without any vaccines?

Why do you think parts of China & Italy have been virtually locked down?

If Covid-19 becomes as common and widespread as influenza the world's population may not go down but the lifespan of the world's poorest sickest humans will.

The USA although a rich country, has more than its fair share of poor, sick inhabitants.

[Matt Bridgeman]

I’d have to agree with John. Most health professionals in the know are no longer writing it off as no worse than the flu. You only have to see the recent accounts of the doctors on the overwhelmed triages in China and Italy currently to see how grim it can be for those badly effected. Panic buying is getting interesting in England. Never mind the toilet rolls, can’t find Quorn products for love nor money now! Lol

[JustinHorton]

which suggests the coronavirus is not the answer to global overpopulation

Uh huh

[Tim Spanton]

I’d have to agree with John. Most health professionals in the know are no longer writing it off as no worse than the flu. You only have to see the recent accounts of the doctors on the overwhelmed triages in China and Italy currently to see how grim it can be for those badly effected. Panic buying is getting interesting in England. Never mind the toilet rolls, can’t find Quorn products for love nor money now! Lol

Presumably to be contrasted with those ignorant quacks whose views do not coincide with your own.

If c500,000 deaths a year from easily-transmissible flu are not a reason to cancel chess tournaments, how come coronavirus, in contrast with Sars, HIV, is?

https://beauchess.blogspot.com/

[Matt Bridgeman]

There are three areas of concern; a vaccine may be upto a year away, it’s appears to spread more quickly than flu and the mortality rate is currently I think 3.4% globally. (Season flu death rate in the US is something like 0.1%. I haven’t looked further afield.)

[Harry Duff]

Another issue is that we know what happens with flu - come March/April the number of cases falls dramatically. We don't know have the same understanding of Coronavirus.

[Matt Bridgeman]

I think talking to my NHS ‘quack’ friends, the fear is there may well be a lull over the summer months, but then it’s expected this winter to come back with a vengeance.

[JustinHorton]

I’d have to agree with John. Most health professionals in the know are no longer writing it off as no worse than the flu. You only have to see the recent accounts of the doctors on the overwhelmed triages in China and Italy currently to see how grim it can be for those badly effected. Panic buying is getting interesting in England. Never mind the toilet rolls, can’t find Quorn products for love nor money now! Lol

Presumably to be contrasted with those ignorant quacks whose views do not coincide with your own

If you want to know why COVID-19 is being treated differently from flu, it is really very easy to find out using the most basic internet searching tools.

[Tim Spanton]

Another issue is that we know what happens with flu - come March/April the number of cases falls dramatically. We don't know have the same understanding of Coronavirus.

Yes, we know up to 650,000 people a year die from it … but chess tournaments, football games, etc do not get called off.

[JustinHorton]

Another issue is that we know what happens with flu - come March/April the number of cases falls dramatically. We don't know have the same understanding of Coronavirus.

Yes, we know up to 650,000 people a year die from it … but chess tournaments, football games, etc do not get called off.

If you want to know why COVID-19 is being treated differently from flu, it is really very easy to find out using the most basic internet searching tools.

[Matt Bridgeman]

I feel Tim’s pain at the cancellation of a chess event. We’re fully booked for an event in Alicante in 4 weeks, and I’ve got no clue whether Spain is imminently going to get locked down like Italy, or whether flights and events will still run. I’m keeping an eye on day to day updates to assess the risk of making the trip.

[Tim Spanton]

Two events! Bad Wiessee and St Albans … and counting?!

https://beauchess.blogspot.com/

[JustinHorton]

I’ve got no clue whether Spain is imminently going to get locked down

Me neither and I live here, though my guess would be that it's more probable than not. (With disastrous economic consequences for me, as it happens.)

[Nick Grey]

uk BBC experts were assessing new cases on an hourly basis to achieve a "balanced response".
expected significant increases in the number of cases in the UK beginning in about 10 to 14 days time, at which point people with flu-like symptoms would be advised to self-isolate.
Budget tomorrow.
Hoping no schools closures despite highest number of cases in a London Borough.
Hope no carriers on train and tube tomorrow.

[Paul McKeown]

Sadly, I have had to postpone the SCCU Junior Jamboree which was due to talk place on Sunday. Entries had been worse than sparse. We plan to reinstate the event later in the year. Apologies to any who have been inconvenienced by this.