Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

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Matthew Turner
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matthew Turner » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:17 pm

How about this then? Ohio has 5 confirmed cases, but their Health Director said that likely there are more than 100,000 cases in the State. Put those numbers into your models

Nick Burrows
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Nick Burrows » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:19 pm

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:48 am
I reckon it will have burned out by the summer and will be more or less forgotten about.
Even if it does go dormant over the summer, surely it will return again next winter. There most likely will not be a vaccine ready by then.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:27 pm

Turning briefly to other sports, football (like other sports, including cricket and golf and tennis and others) has suspended its program of activities, notably going against the current government advice.
The problem is that the outbreak is expected to be at its peak in May and June so if the suspension keeps on being extended, some clubs may start to push for the season to be declared void, a nightmare scenario for clubs like Liverpool and Leeds, who both stand on the brink of long-awaited glory.
Now, some people will be aghast at this. Others will have a better perspective, as pointed out by (Liverpool supporter) Colin Murray in today's Metro where he writes a column:
So many have been losing their s*** about the impact it will have on their team. Titles, promotion, relegation... who cares? As if this will be the lasting scar of this pandemic, rather than the far reaching personal tragedy some are already facing and many, many more will.
The other point to add to those comparing this to the usual toll from influenza is that, apart from the very real differences, this is on top of and in addition to influenza. Some of those killed by Covid-19 might have succumbed to influenza-induced pneumonia, but some would not have. And every one of those deaths will be a personal tragedy.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:56 pm

Does anyone know what this means?
TfL to trial "enhanced" anti-viral cleaning product
a ”new, longer-lasting cleaning agent” that would provide anti-viral protection for up to 30 days.
As far as I can tell, it just lasts for longer on surfaces. Is there any more science behind it than that?

Ian Thompson
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Ian Thompson » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:04 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Does anyone know what this means?
TfL to trial "enhanced" anti-viral cleaning product
a ”new, longer-lasting cleaning agent” that would provide anti-viral protection for up to 30 days.
As far as I can tell, it just lasts for longer on surfaces. Is there any more science behind it than that?
The words "up to" caught my eye. A term that should often be read as "no more than" or "an absolute maximum of".

If there is a cleaning solution on a metal surface, how long is it likely to be effective with people repeatedly touching it and transferring some of it on to their hands?

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Gerard Killoran
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Gerard Killoran » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:17 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:57 am
Gerard Killoran wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:30 am
The elderly and chronically sick will be collateral damage, and hundreds of thousands will die. (60% of 65 million approx 40 million, 1% death rate approx 400,000 deaths minimum)
You should shoot higher - another poster has already slavered over the prospect of a million UK deaths. I think you are both going to be disappointed.
I'm not 'slavering'. If you think the reported mortality rates are wrong, please inform us why. I was deliberately giving a low estimate. The experience of Italy is that an overwhelmed health system will result in higher death rates. If I lose an elderly relative unnecessarily, thanks to a laissez-faire health policy, I shall be more than 'disappointed'.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:41 pm

I think the point is that the government advisors are trying to avoid what happened (is happening) in Italy by spreading the infection uptake over a longer period of time so that the NHS does not get overwhelmed. Working out ways in which we (as members of society) can help elderly relatives and friends will also help. Does anyone know of the most recent advice about that? (Does it suggest self-isolating and/or cocooning and delivering shopping?). It is probably important to distinguish between the healthy elderly, the healthy-but-vulnerable elderly, and the already-ill or unhealthy elderly (and the already ill or unhealthy of any age).

Cocooning (BBC).
People in care homes and others who are less likely to survive the disease may be kept apart from the wider population until herd immunity has been established.

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David Shepherd
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Shepherd » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:18 pm

My instinct is that at the moment the government are not trying to totally restrict the number of cases, but instead using policies which allow them to increase (particularly in certain age groups) at a rate such that panic is minimised until the number of positive tests reaches somewhere in the region of 1,000 reported cases per day. At this point I believe they will concentrate on more extreme measures in order to limit the spread in an attempt to keep it below about 2,500 reported cases per day. One of the main issues is the long period of time an individual may require a ventilator which puts pressure on the limited number available.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Goodall » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:04 pm

This "racism" talk is absurd. No-one involved in English chess wakes up in the morning and thinks Chinese, Iranians, or even Italians are inferior people, and no-one would entertain such a thought, even if it were scientifically proven that they were more likely to be carrying coronavirus. Show me a team captain who'd leave a Chinese whiz kid out of his team for not being English, and I'll show you someone who fell out with the chess community in about 1990 and sloped off to play bridge.
Chris Goodall, formerly known as Chris Wardle. Northumbria League hand-cranker; ECF Grader for Bernicia and the NCCU.
Newcastle is not in Scotland!

Tim Spanton
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Tim Spanton » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:29 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Turning briefly to other sports, football (like other sports, including cricket and golf and tennis and others) has suspended its program of activities, notably going against the current government advice.
The problem is that the outbreak is expected to be at its peak in May and June so if the suspension keeps on being extended, some clubs may start to push for the season to be declared void, a nightmare scenario for clubs like Liverpool and Leeds, who both stand on the brink of long-awaited glory.
Now, some people will be aghast at this. Others will have a better perspective, as pointed out by (Liverpool supporter) Colin Murray in today's Metro where he writes a column:
So many have been losing their s*** about the impact it will have on their team. Titles, promotion, relegation... who cares? As if this will be the lasting scar of this pandemic, rather than the far reaching personal tragedy some are already facing and many, many more will.
The other point to add to those comparing this to the usual toll from influenza is that, apart from the very real differences, this is on top of and in addition to influenza. Some of those killed by Covid-19 might have succumbed to influenza-induced pneumonia, but some would not have. And every one of those deaths will be a personal tragedy.
It is also possible that, thanks to the extra health precautions people are taking, overall death-rates from viruses as a whole will fall rather than rise as a result of the coronavirus, at least in the short-to-medium term.

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:30 pm

The government’s chief medical advisor says its likely to return ‘year on year’ and 60% of the population will need to catch it to obtain ‘herd immunity’ for the population.

Angus French
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Angus French » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm

Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:54 pm

Kind of feeling a little better about withdrawing from Blackpool right around now.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Roger de Coverly » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:02 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:54 pm
Kind of feeling a little better about withdrawing from Blackpool right around now.
The tournament data is up the chess-results server

http://chess-results.com/tnr524726.aspx?lan=1&art=0

It's not completely reliable as to who is taking part, given that you and your daughter are still included. Late withdrawals are sometimes handled by leaving players in the list and setting all their results to "not paired".

David Robertson
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Robertson » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pm

Angus French wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Why would anyone believe The Lancet when, in here, we have a clown from Newcastle and another from Surbiton telling us otherwise?

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