Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

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Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:06 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:02 pm
Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:54 pm
Kind of feeling a little better about withdrawing from Blackpool right around now.
The tournament data is up the chess-results server

http://chess-results.com/tnr524726.aspx?lan=1&art=0

It's not completely reliable as to who is taking part, given that you and your daughter are still included. Late withdrawals are sometimes handled by leaving players in the list and setting all their results to "not paired".
Bill knows and Lara the arbiter. I’m not sure if we will stay in the list or not.

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:22 pm

London Marathon is gone. Probably a fairly obvious one for the chop when you think about it.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Goodall » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:28 pm

David Robertson wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pm
Angus French wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Why would anyone believe The Lancet when, in here, we have a clown from Newcastle and another from Surbiton telling us otherwise?
Jupiter called, they asked if you've finished using their third moon as a head.

Looking at the Lancet article, the authors acknowledge one problem with the data, and then set about solving a different one.

"There's a hidden variable, which is the number of unconfirmed infections. We have no idea how to estimate that. Let's build the incubation time, which is totally independent of the number of unconfirmed infections, into the formula, and declare that an improvement."
Chris Goodall, formerly known as Chris Wardle. Northumbria League hand-cranker; ECF Grader for Bernicia and the NCCU.
Newcastle is not in Scotland!

Nick Burrows
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Nick Burrows » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:47 pm

Angus French wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
I wonder how this tallies with the chief medical officer suggesting a worst case scenario of 80% infection with a 1% mortality rate?

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:05 pm

I wonder whether the assessment of the chief medical officer tallies with any data released to date, most of which seems to put the figure closer to 4%, or with any expert?

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Chris Goodall
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Goodall » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:28 pm

Nick Burrows wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:47 pm
Angus French wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
I wonder how this tallies with the chief medical officer suggesting a worst case scenario of 80% infection with a 1% mortality rate?
Trust the chief medical officer. The Lancet methodology is guaranteed to over-estimate the mortality rate of a spreading disease, and under-estimate the mortality rate of a contracting one. They even say so.
Chris Goodall, formerly known as Chris Wardle. Northumbria League hand-cranker; ECF Grader for Bernicia and the NCCU.
Newcastle is not in Scotland!

John Moore
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by John Moore » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:36 pm

Chris Goodall wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:28 pm
David Robertson wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pm
Angus French wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pm
Real mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Why would anyone believe The Lancet when, in here, we have a clown from Newcastle and another from Surbiton telling us otherwise?
Jupiter called, they asked if you've finished using their third moon as a head.

Looking at the Lancet article, the authors acknowledge one problem with the data, and then set about solving a different one.

"There's a hidden variable, which is the number of unconfirmed infections. We have no idea how to estimate that. Let's build the incubation time, which is totally independent of the number of unconfirmed infections, into the formula, and declare that an improvement."
Frankly, I am not sure how much reliance can be placed on this article (letter?) in The Lancet. The figures they quote are 5.6% within China (which is the figure to which Angus refers) but 15.2% outside China. That seems to be inherently unlikely on the basis of the figures that we can currently see. But I am neither a medical professional (let alone an epidemiologist) nor a statistician.

But then there are a great many experts already pontificating on here.

Daniel Gormally
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Daniel Gormally » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:49 pm

Jersey gone. Even if we don't die of coronavirus, I predict that most professional chess players will die of boredom at a lack of things to do, at this rate.

Richard Bates
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Richard Bates » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:26 pm

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:49 pm
Jersey gone. Even if we don't die of coronavirus, I predict that most professional chess players will die of boredom at a lack of things to do, at this rate.
Candidates will be performing a public service in their isolation. Maybe they’ll be able to carry on for months.

Kevin Thurlow
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:18 pm

"Candidates will be performing a public service in their isolation. Maybe they’ll be able to carry on for months."

Change the schedule to an old-style Candidates, like the 1959 and 1962 versions? (8-player quadruple round, for the younger readers.)

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:26 pm

The Hampstead FIDE weekend event cancelled due to loss of the venue due to Coronavirus fears.

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Adam Raoof
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Adam Raoof » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:29 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:26 pm
The Hampstead FIDE weekend event cancelled due to loss of the venue due to Coronavirus fears.
Due to the current pandemic, venues are cancelling events - so for the moment Hampstead Congress, Muswell Hill and Hendon Blitz are on hold and we will not be taking entries until the situation has settled down. This may take some months. Kingston Rapid is on hold. Jersey Festival and Southend have cancelled for 2020. The next Golders Green Rapid is scheduled for May 2 and I will make a decision about that event nearer the time. I look forward to seeing you at an event soon!
Adam Raoof IA, IO
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David Robertson
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Robertson » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:40 pm

The Big Shutdown arrives

Johnson tonight has U-turned, and will announce a ban on 'mass gatherings' starting next week; Govt compo fund to be declared. No details yet of 'mass'. But I'd guess 4NCL will qualify. Of leagues, no idea. You know my view; I've little more to add. Suspend all play to protect our vulnerable colleagues

Total isolation of elderly likely to follow soon

AND (shakes head in astonishment/despair/incredulity)....

Emergency legislation granting unprecedented (quasi-fascist) powers of intrusion into citizens' lives; reduced care standards for the elderly; and provisions in the event of funeral services being overwhelmed

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:11 am

Also reportedly powers to force schools to *stay open*, rather than the opposite. What?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

David Williams
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Williams » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:27 am

The thing I find hard to visualise here is the end game. Under what circumstances do things start up again? The virus is surely never going to disappear completely. If you've never had it you're always going to be vulnerable to it, and there will always be people out there you can catch it off. There's definitely a part of me that thinks I'd rather get it now when I'm fit and healthy, rather than have it hanging over me as my health declines.

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