Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

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Kevin Thurlow
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:52 am

"Also reportedly powers to force schools to *stay open*, rather than the opposite. What?"

Two possible reasons - one, if children are at home, someone will need to look after them, and these days, frequently both parents go to work. Secondly, It is said children might not be badly affected by Covid-19, but would carry it. If they're roaming the streets, they could infect more people.
So there is some logic to the proposal. Since nobody knows what is going to happen, it is difficult to decide what to do.

Paul McKeown
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:51 am

For an easily readable perspective on different countries perceived varying rates of fatality from infection with SARS-CoV-2, try: https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -in-italy/.

The idea that the fatality rate is 9% or whatever gross exaggeration someone here bellows like some walrus staking out territory is absurd scare-mongering, and those who engage in it should stop.

One might consider Germany's 6 deaths from more than 3,000 confirmed infections, beside those of Italy. Or mainland China's outside of the province of Wuhan (0.7% fatality rate) besides those of Wuhan (5.8% fatality rate).

The statistics vary widely, for various reasons. It would appear that the most informed generally quote a fatality rate of "about 2%", but generally also add that the statistics are probably not catching many subclinical or mild cases, and that if those were taken up in the statistics the fatality rate is perhaps "about 1%".

However, that does still mean that the disease is a very serious one, and one wonders how this government is going to square the apparently blasé way it speaks of the potential (or probable) death of many thousands of UK residents. Speaking of the need for herd immunity to fend off a potential future 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th wave of endemic disease is all very well, but the apparent glee with which they greet the cost in human lives along the way strikes (for me, anyway) a very chilling note in a supposed democracy.

Mind you, Angela Merkel's message to the German people bears some parallels to the UK government's messaging.

David Sedgwick
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Sedgwick » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:09 am

Paul McKeown wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:51 am
… the apparent glee with which [the British government] greet the cost in human lives along the way strikes (for me, anyway) a very chilling note in a supposed democracy.
You wouldn't expect me to agree with you about the British government, but I genuinely hadn't noticed any such attitude.

Matthew Turner
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:24 am

Paul McKeown wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:51 am
One might consider Germany's 6 deaths from more than 3,000 confirmed infections,
Indeed one might, unfortunately, I think your intimation is based on a misunderstanding of statistics. Mortality rates shouldn't be based on
Deaths/current cases. You need to look at the number of cases when the current victims were infected, so something like this would be appropriate.

current deaths/cases a fortnight ago

As a guide during the SARS outbreak the mortality rate was given as 3.5%, when the dust had settled the mortality rate was given as 9.6%

Chris Rice
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Rice » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:28 am

The bad news is that a further 250 died in Italy yesterday which brought the count up to 1,266 in just three weeks which is frightening. The first glimmer of good news this morning though was that the rate of transmission there which was doubling every four days, is now doubling every twelve days, so its slowed dramatically and this would have to be attributed to the lockdown measures introduced there which were pretty much identical to those in China. I wonder if these figures were known to the UK government yesterday which prompted the change of plan.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by JustinHorton » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:33 am

The change of plan might also be due to the problem that, for instance, companies have been sending their people home and if lots of people stay home the herd-immunity plan may be scuppered.
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Daniel Gormally
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Daniel Gormally » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:52 am

I have a theory with covid. We keep saying how the vaccine/cure won't be available for a year at least, maybe 18 months. but my theory is it's a bit like in the second world war, when circumstances impelled scientific breakthroughs that happened quicker than we thought. And I think the same thing will happen here. This virus is costing the world economy so much, that the effort and money that will be thrown at it will be enormous, and I think they'll come up with an answer quicker than we think.

Nick Burrows
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Nick Burrows » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:56 am

I was told yesterday of a company in Oxford that has sent all its employees home for 1 month.

How long does reaching herd immunity take? At some point in the future will we see tournaments for those infected/uninfected? (Half serious)

Nick Burrows
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Nick Burrows » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:59 am

Good point Danny, im sure (and hope) you are right. If true it would make the UK governments strategy incorrect and (unforgivably?) costly in human lives.

Nick Ivell
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Nick Ivell » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:18 am

I'm with the Professor on this one. 4NCL?

I've spent my life playing chess in dingy dumps. Dark public houses. Depressing schools. And don't even get me started on Aston University.

Now I will only play at excellent venues. 4NCL provides this opportunity. Problem is, the whole business model is predicated on filling a hotel at off-peak times. So I quite understand the dilemma faced by the 4NCL management board.

People are voting with their feet. Last night I visited the Imperial Hotel in Blackpool (plush venue, but lighting poor). Empty boards everywhere. A couple of face masks on display. I believe they have had more than 60 cancellations.

All in all, a depressing experience.

Leonard Barden
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Leonard Barden » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:35 am

Nick Ivell wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:18 am


People are voting with their feet. Last night I visited the Imperial Hotel in Blackpool (plush venue, but lighting poor). Empty boards everywhere. A couple of face masks on display. I believe they have had more than 60 cancellations.

All in all, a depressing experience.
Chess Results is showing the round 2 pairings at Blackpool. I counted Open 30, Major 52, Minor 53. The Inter (62) and Standard (90) only have the entry list and no round results, so are probably down in those numbers. But the total still looks well over 200 players. The top seed in the Open, FM Laurence Webb, was beaten in round 1 by local expert Darryl Wolstencroft.

Tomorrow's Dorset Rapidplay had an entry limit of 75 which was oversubscribed. This morning it is still showing 61 players, with the Forum's GM Matthew Turner and FM Ian Thompson as the No1 and No3 seeds.

So overall in the two events most entrants, despite the warnings, have opted to compete and are taking what could be their last chance to play in a congress for quite a while.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Goodall » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:41 am

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:24 am
Paul McKeown wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:51 am
One might consider Germany's 6 deaths from more than 3,000 confirmed infections,
Indeed one might, unfortunately, I think your intimation is based on a misunderstanding of statistics. Mortality rates shouldn't be based on
Deaths/current cases. You need to look at the number of cases when the current victims were infected, so something like this would be appropriate.

current deaths/cases a fortnight ago

As a guide during the SARS outbreak the mortality rate was given as 3.5%, when the dust had settled the mortality rate was given as 9.6%
That's the same methodology as the Lancet article. Yes, you can build in an incubation time variable if you like. Unless you can estimate the number of infected but not diagnosed cases a fortnight ago, it doesn't help. Bearing in mind that if you haven't shown symptoms yet, you also probably haven't gotten tested yet.
Paul McKeown wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:51 am
Speaking of the need for herd immunity to fend off a potential future 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th wave of endemic disease is all very well, but the apparent glee with which they greet the cost in human lives along the way strikes (for me, anyway) a very chilling note in a supposed democracy.
Paul. I have bad news for you. If you cure people of an endemic disease, it doesn't make them immortal. You just condemn them to die of something else. The direct effect of curing every infectious disease in Britain would be an epidemic of dementia that would overwhelm our health system even faster.
Chris Goodall, formerly known as Chris Wardle. Northumbria League hand-cranker; ECF Grader for Bernicia and the NCCU.
Newcastle is not in Scotland!

Ian Thompson
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Ian Thompson » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:47 am

Leonard Barden wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:35 am
Chess Results is showing the round 2 pairings at Blackpool. I counted Open 30, Major 52, Minor 53. The Inter (62) and Standard (90) only have the entry list and no round results, so are probably down in those numbers. But the total still looks well over 200 players.

Tomorrow's Dorset Rapidplay had an entry limit of 75 which was oversubscribed. This morning it is still showing 61 players, with the Forum's GM Matthew Turner and FM Ian Thompson as the No1 and No3 seeds.

So overall in the two events most entrants, despite the warnings, have opted to compete and are taking what could be their last chance to play in a congress for quite a while.
There's also the Birmingham Rapidplay tomorrow. Its website is currently showing a total of 67 entrants.

John McKenna
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by John McKenna » Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:28 am

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:52 am
I have a theory with covid. We keep saying how the vaccine/cure won't be available for a year at least, maybe 18 months. but my theory is it's a bit like in the second world war, when circumstances impelled scientific breakthroughs that happened quicker than we thought. And I think the same thing will happen here. This virus is costing the world economy so much, that the effort and money that will be thrown at it will be enormous, and I think they'll come up with an answer quicker than we think.
R
Nearly there?!

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/scientists-cl ... 20423.html
Last edited by John McKenna on Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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David Robertson
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by David Robertson » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:33 pm

Nick Ivell wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:18 am
I'm with the Professor on this one

Very sensible :D
Nick Ivell wrote:4NCL?
It will be suspended/cancelled. We merely await the formal announcement. But it's definitely OFF. An ECF Advisory on leagues etc will be issued too, recommending suspension.

Slowly, step-by-step, we're getting there. I'm not quite sure where, or what, we're getting. But no one should recklessly seek out this virus

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