Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

[Roger Lancaster]

"Appalled" would have been more to the point

I think Dante had that as "pearl-clutcher"

As far as constructive debate is concerned, David, I've got you down as a straw-clutcher. Shame, really, as I felt your original proposition was an entirely tenable one - I wasn't with you 100 per cent of the way but felt it was a valid point of view.

[David Robertson]

As far as constructive debate is concerned, David, I've got you down as a straw-clutcher

As far as constructive debate is concerned, Roger, I've got you down as absent. You've made no contribution to an important discussion until you mounted your high-horse, and rode in with your censorious finger-wagging. I have no time for this conceit when important matters are at stake

[Roger Lancaster]

One only has to look abroad to see that this virus shouldn't be under-estimated but, equally, it's easy to over-estimate the risk at this particular time - although, of course, I'd be the first to acknowledge that things will get worse - almost certainly, much worse - before they get better.

But the Government's official estimate is that between 5,000 and 10,000 people are currently infected. Let's assume that's a gross under-estimate and the actual figure is 60,000. For a population of close to 70 million, that would imply just one person in a thousand has the virus, in which case you'd need to be a tad unlucky to be facing him, or her, across a chessboard.

Alternatively, in 2018, the latest year for which I can find figures, there were 1784 road deaths in this country. That's close to five a day. Over the past week, there have probably been more fatalities on the roads - but, of course, these are routine occurrences which we more or less take for granted - than as a result of the virus. No-one, bar a small number of road safety campaigners, turns a hair at this,

I think it's right to be apprehensive of what probably lies ahead but, for anyone going out of their front door today, the risk appears low.

[Roger Lancaster]

As far as constructive debate is concerned, David, I've got you down as a straw-clutcher

As far as constructive debate is concerned, Roger, I've got you down as absent. You've made no contribution to an important discussion until you mounted your high-horse, and rode in with your censorious finger-wagging. I have no time for this conceit when important matters are at stake

You seem to have difficulty distinguishing between "an important discussion" [as perceived by you] and your trading of insults with a third party, a practice which I don't think I'm alone in finding inappropriate. I'll leave Carl to adjudicate on this one.

[JustinHorton]

Yeah I think they could cancel the British, unfortunately.

I've seen this coming for a while. I shall be very disappointed if it happens (as well as out-of-pocket, as I booked my accommodation early in January) but that can't be anybody's priority.

Alternatively, in 2018, the latest year for which I can find figures, there were 1784 road deaths in this country. That's close to five a day. Over the past week, there have probably been more fatalities on the roads - but, of course, these are routine occurrences which we more or less take for granted - than as a result of the virus. No-one, bar a small number of road safety campaigners, turns a hair at this

Are you really sure you want to make this comparison?

[Roger Lancaster]

Yeah I think they could cancel the British, unfortunately.

I've seen this coming for a while. I shall be very disappointed if it happens (as well as out-of-pocket, as I booked my accommodation early in January) but that can't be anybody's priority.

Alternatively, in 2018, the latest year for which I can find figures, there were 1784 road deaths in this country. That's close to five a day. Over the past week, there have probably been more fatalities on the roads - but, of course, these are routine occurrences which we more or less take for granted - than as a result of the virus. No-one, bar a small number of road safety campaigners, turns a hair at this

Are you really sure you want to make this comparison?

As a statistic, yes, because it illustrates the current magnitude of risk. I'm not suggesting, for lack of a better term, moral equivalence.

[David Robertson]

But the Government's official estimate is that between 5,000 and 10,000 people are currently infected. Let's assume that's a gross under-estimate and the actual figure is 60,000. For a population of close to 70 million, that would imply just one person in a thousand has the virus, in which case you'd need to be a tad unlucky to be facing him, or her, across a chessboard.

I think it's right to be apprehensive of what probably lies ahead but, for anyone going out of their front door today, the risk appears low.

Dear God, this is the reasoning of a simpleton. We're in the foothills of a dangerous infectious epidemic. Today, the risk of infection is indeed low. By the end of next week, it will be by magnitudes higher; by the end of the month, the risk will be huge. Amplify the risk by the vulnerability of our chess community, and we would be grossly negligent in failing to take decisive action immediately.

Why do I bother repeating the point? Strike one clown down, up pops another. I'm tired. Enough of these people

[Roger Lancaster]

Dear God, this is the reasoning of a simpleton. We're in the foothills of a dangerous infectious epidemic. Today, the risk of infection is indeed low. By the end of next week, it will be by magnitudes higher; by the end of the month, the risk will be huge. Amplify the risk by the vulnerability of our chess community, and we would be grossly negligent in failing to take decisive action immediately.

Why do I bother repeating the point? Strike one clown down, up pops another. I'm tired. Enough of these people

I'll leave Carl to adjudicate on this one.

[JustinHorton]

Alternatively, in 2018, the latest year for which I can find figures, there were 1784 road deaths in this country. That's close to five a day. Over the past week, there have probably been more fatalities on the roads - but, of course, these are routine occurrences which we more or less take for granted - than as a result of the virus. No-one, bar a small number of road safety campaigners, turns a hair at this

Are you really sure you want to make this comparison?

As a statistic, yes, because it illustrates the current magnitude of risk.

Are you really sure it does that?

I mean if I'm in a car accident, I can't go away and infect a bunch of other people with that car accident, can I?

[Roger Lancaster]

Are you really sure you want to make this comparison?

As a statistic, yes, because it illustrates the current magnitude of risk.

Are you really sure it does that?

Well, I think so although I hope I'm always open to reasoned argument to the contrary.

On a separate point, it strikes me that much of this discussion has revolved around avoiding the virus. Yet all the Government assumptions, unless I misunderstand them, are based on the average infected person infecting two others until around 60 per cent of the population has been infected, at which point the incidence of infection will start to decline. Is it being argued here that the Government is wrong and that social engineering can keep the figure well below 60 per cent or, alternatively, if we accept that 60 per cent will catch the virus sooner or later, are we just debating how members of the chess community can best avoid falling into that 60 per cent - or, at least, delay it as long as possible?

[Roger Lancaster]

Are you really sure you want to make this comparison?

As a statistic, yes, because it illustrates the current magnitude of risk.

Are you really sure it does that?

I mean if I'm in a car accident, I can't go away and infect a bunch of other people with that car accident, can I?

Agreed, which is why I added the rider about moral equivalence.

[Martin Benjamin]

I think suspending chess competitions has become inevitable, whatever we each think of the objective worth of so doing in terms of effective action against Covid-19, so we might as well get on with it straight away. Suspending social media might (arguably) be a more useful action. Some of the tone and content of comments in this thread don't help. The spread of false information, strange ideas and the aggressive advocacy of simple and favoured solutions whilst attacking cogent alternative strategies without applying critical thinking contribute to things like the irrational panic buying my wife and I have witnessed on the past two Saturdays at the supermarket. I had hoped the panic buying would be a temporary problem, and people would either return to their senses or would have bought so much they didn't feel the need to buy still more. In fact, there are more empty shelves for a wider range of things (not going to mention what they are in case it prompts yet more panic buying) and certain people at the supermarket today seem to believe that the solution to this situation lies in buying more lavatory paper than they could use in several months. I overheard one family with three members discussing a plan to wait for the promised new batch of lavatory paper to be brought out and put on the empty shelves, and then each of them would take the maximum allowance of 2 x 9 roll packs to different tills. "You never know - the country might run out of it by next week" was one comment I heard. So that family has at least 54 lavatory rolls at home, probably more. Stupidity, ignorance and selfishness.

[Nick Grey]

vulnerability of our chess community, Old enough to make decisions. I'M vulnerable.

I want to know if A match is ON. 16/3.
I' will come from work and train empty.

Lack of food in shops biggest issue for me. And ALL my schools still open.

[Angus French]

I’ve seen doubt expressed about whether ‘herd immunity’ would work as a strategy against Covid-19. See, for example, last para here:

Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.”

A friend tells me that coronaviruses are single-strand RNA and liable to mutate – they don't have the intrinsic error-immunity of double-strand DNA.

[raycollett]

Worcestershire Chess Association and Worcester & District Chess League have suspended OTB chess activities. See statement on their website: http://www.worcestershirechess.org.uk/