Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

[Nick Burrows]

I'll leave Carl to adjudicate on this one.

How ironic if in this of all threads, two of our most well educated contributors end up in quarantine. For name calling.

[Nick Burrows]

Here is a constructive suggestion:

Why dont we all think of some of our chess colleagues in our local areas who may be somewhat socially isolated. Contact them, and if you are in good health, and not in a high risk group - offer to run some errands, collect groceries etc in the eventuality that they are self isolating.
They might just really appreciate the offer.

[JustinHorton]

I mean if I'm in a car accident, I can't go away and infect a bunch of other people with that car accident, can I?

Agreed, which is why I added the rider about moral equivalence.

It's not really about moral equivalence, Roger, it's that these are entirely different kinds of risk. In one instance it can add to the figures for traffic accidents but in the other it can cause them to rise exponentially. This is why it was a crass comparison when Nigel Short made it.

[NickFaulks]

How ironic if in this of all threads, two of our most well educated contributors end up in quarantine. For name calling.

I don't think Roger has done that, and the Prof has been no worse than usual.

[Chris Goodall]

the Prof has been no worse than usual.

That's how Donald Trump happened

[Carl Hibbard]

the Prof has been no worse than usual.

That's how Donald Trump happened

Not really helping that is it Chris

[MartinCarpenter]

Even the pessimistic predictions seem to think this will be under some sort of control by July/August.

But I agree the unpredictability and uncertainty hardly help forward planning.

Well, if you want pessimistic, look at what Spanish flu did.

Still, we're (nearly) definitely going to have a slight wait, then a long period of full lock down, then coming out of that with a markedly reduced number of cases.

Its maybe worth thinking about what we'll do then. The disease won't be gone as such, and its terribly hard to catch outbreaks before they get large.

[Chris Goodall]

the Prof has been no worse than usual.

That's how Donald Trump happened

Not really helping that is it Chris

Depends on your opinion of Donald Trump.

[Nick Ivell]

It's now clear that the most recent 4NCL weekend, absurdly titled 'weekend 1', was the calm before the storm. No announcement from the arbiters. Handshake as normal. The most serious thing we were worried about was cheating.

And yet... In Preston station I had seen someone wearing a face mask. The first I had ever seen outside a dental surgery.

There is always a harbinger of something sinister. In the Camus classic 'La Peste', it was dying rats on the streets of Oran.

There are more important things than chess. In the coming months, we're all going to have to get used to a lack of over-the-board activity.

[Daniel Gormally]

Read an interesting interview today with Wayne Rooney where he said that most people he spoke to didn't want to play and they were relieved when it did get cancelled, and he felt that the authorities took too long in making an announcement.

I got the impression that a lot of the people I spoke to about the 4ncl weren't looking forward to playing. If it is going to be cancelled that takes the decision out of their hands which makes it a lot easier.

Personally from a purely chess point of view I haven't always enjoyed the 4ncl over the last few years but having got 2/2 the last weekend I was quite looking forward to playing. I would have played if it had gone on. But obviously it's not just the danger to yourself, it's the people you come into contact with on a daily basis, who might be quite elderly and who may have underlying health issues.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Here is a constructive suggestion:

Why dont we all think of some of our chess colleagues in our local areas who may be somewhat socially isolated. Contact them, and if you are in good health, and not in a high risk group - offer to run some errands, collect groceries etc in the eventuality that they are self isolating.
They might just really appreciate the offer.

Yes, indeed. Well, family and the elderly first, no doubt, but there are several people out there for whom playing chess is one of the main things which keeps them going. We probably all have some idea of who they might be, even though in many cases they may not be at all strong players.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Although we are all going to need substantial readjustment. I mean, yesterday felt weird, through just having no sports to follow (!) and it may be that for we chess players, the Candidates is coming at the right time, enabling us to still follow and discuss something live, before what could be two months or so of very little happening (which interests us) indeed.

[David Williams]

The difference in 'herd immunity' % lies in the differences in rate (R) of transmission of infection. Where R = 0, there is no transmission; where R = 0.99999, the infection will swiftly die out. But where R = 1.00001, the infection will expand exponentially in due course. So R = 1 is the baseline for control.

Covid-19 has R = 2.5. Measles has R = 10+ (ie. measles is far more infectious than Covid-19). Now calculate the % for 'herd immunity': for Covid-19, it is 1.5/2.5 = 60%; for measles: 9/10 = 90%

I've seen this elsewhere, and somehow it seems to lead to the conclusion that 60% of the population will get it.

If there is an outbreak of measles, and over 90% of people have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune, then one can see that the outbreak will be short-lived. But if we reach the stage when 60% of the population (39 million) have contracted Covid-19, maybe 10 million or more will still have it at that time, so they in turn are going to infect a further 10 million people. At this stage 49 million have had it, so there are only 16 million left and my second tranche of 10 million will only infect say 6 million more, who will in turn infect only 2 million, and it dies out.

But it ends with 90% of the population having had it, doesn't it?

[Chris Goodall]

I got the impression that a lot of the people I spoke to about the 4ncl weren't looking forward to playing. If it is going to be cancelled that takes the decision out of their hands which makes it a lot easier.

Absolutely - the event happens because the people want it to happen. If the people no longer want it to happen, it doesn't matter whether that's because they fear coronavirus or they fear checkmate.

I would have played if it had gone on. But obviously it's not just the danger to yourself, it's the people you come into contact with on a daily basis, who might be quite elderly and who may have underlying health issues.

There does seem to be a greater degree of "bring it on" among the younger folk than the older. I would have assumed that when I get old, I'll prefer to die of something like coronavirus than wait for my brain to wear out. Fear of regret is a powerful thing though. You don't want to think that you could have avoided getting coronavirus if you'd acted differently.

[Matt Bridgeman]

In other news, Levon Aronian’s wife, WIM Arianne Caoili drove into a concrete barrier under a bridge today I believe, and is in critical condition.