Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

[Matt Mackenzie]

FWIW the local chess league/clubs seem to have decided they will continue on an "ad hoc" basis for the time being.

Of course in any total "lockdown" situation that would change.

[David Robertson]

WHO facts...0.1% mortality rate for the Flu - Flu jab available
3.4% mortality rate for Covid 19 - no known cure.

NEW fact (released today). In Lombardy, epicentre of the Italian outbreak, the overall death rate is now 8.6% (8717 cases; 744 deaths ). Please note: I said "overall". I don't yet have data for 'at risk' age groups

ALSO, May's local elections to be postponed

[Daniel Gormally]

I thought there was no proof that masks stopped you getting infected.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Boris Johnson finally giving his press conference after what was presumably a marathon COBRA session.

Worst public health crisis for a generation

[Chris Goodall]

NEW fact (released today). In Lombardy, epicentre of the Italian outbreak, the overall death rate is now 8.6% (8717 cases; 744 deaths ). Please note: I said "overall". I don't yet have data for 'at risk' age groups

The testing process is currently at full capacity. People who are not being tested, are not being tested because of a lack of tests and a lack of medics, not because of a lack of symptoms. So any death rates are complete speculation. Obviously, the people more likely to die are also more likely to get tested.

[Ian Thompson]

I said "overall". I don't yet have data for 'at risk' age groups

There are some Chinese numbers here, albeit now published 3 weeks ago, amongst which the fatality rates are:

Overall - 2.3%
Over 80s - 14.8%
70-79 years - 8%
Critical cases - 49%

Critical was where people suffered respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure.

[Phil Neatherway]

The Government believes we are about a month behind Italy and that the overall death rate is 1%.
And as we speak, our pension funds are declining in value.

[Stewart Reuben]

The last two rounds of the WORLD SENIOR TEAM CHMPIONSHIPs in Prague have been camcelled. The prizegiving will be held tonight at 10pm; the results depending on the first 7 rounds.

[Chris Goodall]

There are some Chinese numbers here, albeit now published 3 weeks ago, amongst which the fatality rates are:

Overall - 2.3%

There you go then - the chance that the same virus is killing 8.6% of patients in Lombardy and 2.3% in China, is nil. These are made-up numbers.

[Jonathan Rogers]

The last two rounds of the WORLD SENIOR TEAM CHMPIONSHIPs in Prague have been camcelled. The prizegiving will be held tonight at 10pm; the results depending on the first 7 rounds.

Perhaps even more significantly, I gather that some Bundesliga rounds were cancelled/postponed today

[David Robertson]

There you go then - the chance that the same virus is killing 8.6% of patients in Lombardy and 2.3% in China, is nil. These are made-up numbers

Yeah

[Matt Bridgeman]

NEW fact (released today). In Lombardy, epicentre of the Italian outbreak, the overall death rate is now 8.6% (8717 cases; 744 deaths ). Please note: I said "overall". I don't yet have data for 'at risk' age groups

The testing process is currently at full capacity. People who are not being tested, are not being tested because of a lack of tests and a lack of medics, not because of a lack of symptoms. So any death rates are complete speculation. Obviously, the people more likely to die are also more likely to get tested.

I believe the current NHS protocol is to only test if the patient has symptoms and has either been to an effected country or been in contact with someone who has been diagnosed. If you simply have the symptoms you won’t be tested. This is causing a dilemma for health professionals in some hospitals. I think at the PM press conference they estimated current cases probably in the 5 to 10,000 range* in reality, with 80% of the population to be effected eventually.

*that figure appears to have been plucked from thin air. Nobody really knows.

[David Robertson]

Johnson (& advisors) statements today had two critical points for me:

1) Johnson expanded the case-to-infection ratio to 20x (500-10,000). Previous estimates to which I'd been working were 6-10x. This is dramatic, and likely correct, as the exponential impact becomes evident. So, by next Thurs, we can anticipate close to 10,000 cases (with 250 deaths, up from 10), and 200,000 infected. Thereafter, depending on containment success, the sky's the limit.

2) the guff spoken about self-isolation of the at-risk elderly. You could see the discomfort in the experts justifying their zero advice. Pitiful. The evidence shrieks that, as we move into the peak infection period - 4-6 weeks time - the moment to isolate, where possible, is NOW - that is, before the latent (ie non-symptomatic) examples begin to spike upwards. After that, and you're running a non-trivial risk of being infected.

Personally, I'm suspending all chess for the relevant future. I strongly advise all players, aged 60+, to do the same The mean age of an ECF member is 53.8. That is, nearly 50% of our community is 55+; hence, c 35% is 60+; hence c. 20% is 70+. They risk non-trivial exposure to Covid-19 risk over the coming two months.

I'm truly astonished that no one, in ECF or wherever, is offering leadership here. And I'm not finger-wagging. I know it's a tough call. But, ffs, look to a duty of care and guidance where you have the authority. Issue, at the minmum, an Advisory recommending the suspension of leagues and tournaments

[Andrew Zigmond]

I will be in Blackpool this weekend as has long been my intention. I know there's a certain degree of risk from being in close proximity to other people but, up to a point, there always is. I fully understand why some people might wish to withdraw but those of us taking a `keep calm and carry on` approach have rights too.

[JustinHorton]

those of us taking a `keep calm and carry on` approach have rights too.

Which would be what, specifically