Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

[Chris Rice]

I’ve seen doubt expressed about whether ‘herd immunity’ would work as a strategy against Covid-19. See, for example, last para here:

Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.”

A friend tells me that coronaviruses are single-strand RNA and liable to mutate – they don't have the intrinsic error-immunity of double-strand DNA.

The herd immunity initiative is an interesting one but the optics didn't look good after the UK government announced it. The prevailing response from the public was "why didn't you just put the country on lockdown instead of telling us we were all going to die?"

Covid 19 is a mutation of SARs (discovered in bats and can jump animal species, Covid 19 might have had an intermediary mammal involved, the experts don't know, a lot of it is guesswork) and there is always the risk that by the time you've got a workable vaccine, say 18 months, its mutated into something else and the vaccine's useless.

I think Danny mentioned earlier that globally money will be thrown at the problem and a vaccine may take a lot less than 18 months to develop and I suspect that will happen. Trouble is that might help solve the immediate problem but if it mutates after that then we're in the same pickle next year. If we build up this natural or herd immunity then that might be a better solution to the problem but will it work? Truth is I suspect again its guesswork, it might, it might not, do we want to take a chance with 60%+ of the population? No we don't.

The only thing we are seeing that is working are the lockdowns. The stats, particularly in China and Italy, are showing the transmission rates dramatically falling so where everything else is uncertain that's what we should do more of. Therefore the small part that suspending chess will accomplish as Dave R is suggesting looks to be an easy win. Effectively that's now happening so we can move on to other efforts. I just got pinged by the NHS saying that they are going to do video consultations by Facetime/Skype etc so bit by bit the country is doing all it can to fight back.

[Matt Bridgeman]

I get the flu jab every winter. I think it contains protection for different strains every year, but it’s fairly common knowledge for people who get it that there will be likely new strains that it doesn’t cover. I think people in England colloquially describe having a bad common cold as ‘having the flu’ but I think actually getting proper, full-blown flu is a lot worse.

[Chris Goodall]

In other news, Levon Aronian’s wife, WIM Arianne Caoili drove into a concrete barrier under a bridge today I believe, and is in critical condition.

Yikes. I've heard of her. The Filipina lady who hates grammar Nazis.
11:48 - Doctors report "positive dynamics" in Caoili's condition. She is conscious, but still in serious condition. (armenpress.am)

The herd immunity initiative is an interesting one but the optics didn't look good after the UK government announced it. The prevailing response from the public was "why didn't you just put the country on lockdown instead of telling us we were all going to die?"

Covid 19 is a mutation of SARs (discovered in bats and can jump animal species, Covid 19 might have had an intermediary mammal involved, the experts don't know, a lot of it is guesswork) and there is always the risk that by the time you've got a workable vaccine, say 18 months, its mutated into something else and the vaccine's useless.

I think Danny mentioned earlier that globally money will be thrown at the problem and a vaccine may take a lot less than 18 months to develop and I suspect that will happen. Trouble is that might help solve the immediate problem but if it mutates after that then we're in the same pickle next year. If we build up this natural or herd immunity then that might be a better solution to the problem but will it work? Truth is I suspect again its guesswork, it might, it might not, do we want to take a chance with 60%+ of the population? No we don't.

The only thing we are seeing that is working are the lockdowns. The stats, particularly in China and Italy, are showing the transmission rates dramatically falling so where everything else is uncertain that's what we should do more of. Therefore the small part that suspending chess will accomplish as Dave R is suggesting looks to be an easy win. Effectively that's now happening so we can move on to other efforts. I just got pinged by the NHS saying that they are going to do video consultations by Facetime/Skype etc so bit by bit the country is doing all it can to fight back.

This. Thank you, Chris. This is how you provide an informed and informative summary of the situation without calling everyone else stupid in the first sentence.

The difference in 'herd immunity' % lies in the differences in rate (R) of transmission of infection. Where R = 0, there is no transmission; where R = 0.99999, the infection will swiftly die out. But where R = 1.00001, the infection will expand exponentially in due course. So R = 1 is the baseline for control.

Covid-19 has R = 2.5. Measles has R = 10+ (ie. measles is far more infectious than Covid-19). Now calculate the % for 'herd immunity': for Covid-19, it is 1.5/2.5 = 60%; for measles: 9/10 = 90%

I've seen this elsewhere, and somehow it seems to lead to the conclusion that 60% of the population will get it.

If there is an outbreak of measles, and over 90% of people have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune, then one can see that the outbreak will be short-lived. But if we reach the stage when 60% of the population (39 million) have contracted Covid-19, maybe 10 million or more will still have it at that time, so they in turn are going to infect a further 10 million people. At this stage 49 million have had it, so there are only 16 million left and my second tranche of 10 million will only infect say 6 million more, who will in turn infect only 2 million, and it dies out.

But it ends with 90% of the population having had it, doesn't it?

It does, and a reasonable person armed with that fact might therefore conclude that the herd immunity formula is an example of ex posteriori inference, though I would not go that far myself.

[Angus French]

I'm told the Surrey and Kent leagues are suspended. The Croydon league is about to suspend. The London league and, I believe, the Middlesex league are both giving serious consideration to suspending.

[Alan Walton]

I am no expert in this (like most here), but I did read a article about “herd immunity” and a comparison to something in 1918 in America

Two cities in America, I think it was St Louis and Philadelphia back in 1918 did two opposing tactics (can’t remember which way round)

1) total lockdown, got a instant high spike from those already affected passing onto family members; after it look like it was dying down, went back to normal but due to low immunity levels got a secondary hit a few months later

2) a slower approach (similar to the UK), high infection rates but was managed over the longer period of time and thereafter the secondary peak didn’t reoccur because of the higher immunity rates

Number (1) had the higher % death rate

This is one example; scientists have been all shouting out others, who’s right nobody knows, and I wish some people here admit they don’t actually know what is going to occur

[Matt Bridgeman]

Austria have just announced they are banning groups of 5 or more. And you’re banned from entering from the UK.

[Adam Raoof]

Austria have just announced they are banning groups of 5 or more. And you’re banned from entering from the UK.

Surely you mean 50 or more?

I have just cancelled my trip to Vienna...

[Matt Bridgeman]

I think it said 5!

Austria;

‘The government is also closing restaurants from Tuesday, and is telling people not to leave the home apart from to go to work, get food or grab other necessities, or to help people.’ BBC

[LawrenceCooper]

I'm told the Surrey and Kent leagues are suspended. The Croydon league is about to suspend. The London league and, I believe, the Middlesex league are both giving serious consideration to suspending.

Shropshire standard (and presumably rapid) leagues have shut down, I know of at least one postponement in the Birmingham League but Wolverhampton League is still going as far as I know.

[Kevin Thurlow]

"This is one example; scientists have been all shouting out others, who’s right nobody knows, and I wish some people here admit they don’t actually know what is going to occur"

Yes. As a scientist I get somewhat annoyed by people who know nothing shouting the odds, e.g. pop stars getting air time to explain that cannabis etc. are harmless. Politicians are worse, although they seem to be vaguely civilised at present. Ricky Gervais had it right at a recent award ceremony, roughly, "Don't talk about politics - most of you spent less time at school than Greta Thunberg, you know nothing." Insert science for politics...

As for scientists offering different theories, that's what we do, (nothing wrong with that), then someone finds the truth. But shouting everyone down doesn't help. The guy talking quietly might be right!

I won't offer any theories - medical matters are not my area of expertise, but from my experience the flu jab normally works pretty well, until a new strain comes along, but you usually get some protection. Any vaccine for Covid-19 will take a while to be given to the public, as it has to be tested properly. (You don't want another thalidomide disaster...)

Talk in the aisles of Waitrose this morning was that this outbreak could peak in four months.

[raycollett]

I have now heard on good authority two other West Midlands Leagues are suspended: Birmingham&DCL, Dudley &DCL and Wolverhampton&DCL are considering the matter.

[Roger de Coverly]

Talk in the aisles of Waitrose this morning was that this outbreak could peak in four months.

That would take us to the middle of July putting the British in question and leave the resumption of chess for the new season in September in some doubt.

[Chris Rice]

Austria have just announced they are banning groups of 5 or more. And you’re banned from entering from the UK.

Like Adam I had to cancel my trip as well in the first week of April as BA cancelled my flights and the nursing homes, one of which my mother is in, have all shut their doors to visitors. Groups of more than 5 are as you say banned but there is more.

From Monday only essential businesses are open and you can only leave the house to shop, go to the pharmacy/doctor or bank to take out money. Everyone will be in quarantine. From Tuesday all restaurants will be closed, not really any choice. Over the weekend the Austrian Police were called in to a number of supermarkets as fights broke out over toilet paper and pasta. The restrictions are set to last for one week.

[Neil Graham]

The Nottingham Congress scheduled for the forthcoming weekend has been cancelled - a statement is given on the Congress page.

[raycollett]

<quote>I’ve seen doubt expressed about whether ‘herd immunity’ would work as a strategy against Covid-19.</quote>
Typically, known Coronaviruses produce mutant strains every 2 weeks if they circulate in a population because they use RNA which is a less stable molecule than DNA for their coding. That is why immunity to typical colds - another coronavirus - does not last from year to year.