Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Andrew Zigmond
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Andrew Zigmond » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:44 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:34 pm
Andrew Zigmond wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:27 pm
JustinHorton wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:19 pm


How calm do you think people are going to be when ICUs are overflowing and the desperately sick can't be admitted to hospital
Which is why we need a robust response to ensure our hospitals are as ready as they can ever be
That's a reason for the lockdowns, Andrew, they buy time
I know that. I'm not quite that stupid. a lockdown of up to a month is no great hardship (and those people out of work as a result could and perhaps should assist by delivering essential supplies to those who need it). A lockdown extending over a year as some people are suggesting is a very different thing.

But I suspect as usual we won't agree so let's park it there. I'm already guilty of losing my temper on here once tonight and I don't think another slanging match is useful.
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Matt Bridgeman
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 pm

When the actual prisons get infected prison ships being used was the suggestion.

raycollett
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by raycollett » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 am

Many MCCU area leagues have stopped over-the-board play: Birmingham & Dist, Cannock & Dist, Dudley & Dist, Leamington & Dist, Leicestershire & Rutland, Manchester, North Staffordshire, Shropshire, Stockport, Wolverhampton & Dist, Worcester & Dist, and Worcestershire, because of the Coronavirus epidemic. Also cancelled are at least three congresses: 4NCL FIDÉ Easter congress at Kenilworth, Bolton Easter, and Notts CA. Last week when league play was continuing in Worcestershire, there were several defaulted matches because captains were unable to find players willing to risk infection or clubs had already ceased meeting.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Chris Goodall » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:30 am

Andrew Zigmond wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:54 pm
David Robertson wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:37 pm

Frankly, Andrew, I don't think you're quite up with the project here. Forgive me for saying so in these terms, but some w@nker$ in here get shirty if I told you what I really think of this
This wanker promises not to get shirty as I really have more important things to worry about than trading blows with you. I am worried about many of my chess friends if this pandemic takes hold, many of whom are 70 plus and like surrogate uncles to me. At the same time I'm also desperately worried about my many young friends who work in hospitality are are likely to be left without jobs, income, shelter and food if this lockdown drags on. But that's all I'm going to say on the matter.
You are absolutely justified in worrying about the hospitality industry. It's obvious you're not wishing coronavirus on anyone as a result. If any self-appointed expert thinks you should be taking a less balanced view of the situation, then just ****ing ignore them. If the President of the USA doesn't have a right to place himself in charge of a situation and be taken seriously, neither does any lesser mortal.
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Paul McKeown
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:35 am

Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:28 pm
I am not sure what else we expected from a politician who, generally in life, is pro-risk ...
This, a thousand times. Some cheap music hall Churchill impressionism from an overblown ego used to playing toy soldiers. What we really need at this time. And that's before you get to the likes of Gove and Mark Francois, who I imagine are just creaming themselves at the thought of actual ration cards. History cruelly denied them by being born too late: until now, they can almost feel them.

Paul McKeown
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:42 am

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:18 pm
Even the pessimistic predictions seem to think this will be under some sort of control by July/August.
The talking heads on ITV this evening were chuntering about it lasting into next year. I switched off.

Paul McKeown
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:46 am

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:52 pm
in which case you'd need to be a tad unlucky to be facing him, or her, across a chessboard.
I think, to be fair to David, that he would say that it is the cumulative effect of many such encounters in various areas of one's life which make the risk much likelier. (This is not to be taken as an endorsement of his position, nor a disagreement with yours, or vice versa.)

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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:14 am

Angus French wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:02 am
A friend tells me that coronaviruses are single-strand RNA and liable to mutate – they don't have the intrinsic error-immunity of double-strand DNA.
All viruses mutate. I understand why it might be thought that single strand RNA viruses replicate with less fidelity than double strand DNA viruses. However, coronaviruses don't seem to mutate particularly quickly by comparison with other viruses, from what I have been able to read.

See for instance: It would appear that CoV encode a proofreading exoribonuclease that provides increased robustness to mutation.

Naturally, I claim no qualification in the field, and your friend might be right. In which case I would be interested to learn more.

Edit: typo correction
Last edited by Paul McKeown on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

Paul McKeown
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:20 am

Earlier in this thread, someone wrote in lurid terms of a more virulent L strain having evolved from an older S strain of this current virus.

It might appear, however, that this is an over-interpretation of statistical data:
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html
Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health who was not part of the study, said the authors' conclusions are "pure speculation." For one thing, he said, the mutations the study authors referenced were incredibly small — on the order of a couple of nucleotides, the basic building blocks of genes, he said. (SARS-CoV-2 is about 30,000 nucleotides long).

These slight changes likely wouldn't have a major impact, if any at all, on the functioning of the virus, so it would be "inaccurate" to say that these differences mean there are different strains, he said. In addition, the researchers looked at only 103 cases. "It's a very small sample set of the total virus population," Grubaugh told Live Science. Figuring out the mutations that a virus underwent worldwide takes "a nontrivial amount of effort and sometimes takes years to complete," he said.

Other scientists agree. The finding that the coronavirus mutates into two strains with the L strain leading to more severe disease "is most likely a statistical artifact," Richard Neher, a biologist and physicist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, wrote on Twitter. This statistical effect is probably due to early sampling of the L group in Wuhan, resulting in a "higher apparent" case fatality rates, he wrote.

When there's a rapidly growing local outbreak, scientists quickly sample the virus genomes from patients, resulting in the overrepresentation of some variants of the virus, Neher wrote. The authors of the paper acknowledge that the data in their study is "still very limited" and they need to follow-up with larger data sets to better understand how the virus is evolving, they wrote.

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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Paul McKeown » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:40 am

Chris Rice wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:46 pm
Covid 19 is a mutation of SARs
I think that it is perhaps more accurate to say that SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are strains of the same species of virus (according to the taxonomy of the ICTV, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses), the one not evolving directly from the other, but both originating from a species of coronavirus hosted in bat populations.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z
The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.
The key words here are "sister clade".

The relationship is thus: a species of coronaviruses which contains strains including the virus which caused SARS, a virus identified as being hosted in bats and this new virus which causes the disease, Covid-19.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:18 am

Alan Walton wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:40 pm
Why do people (and the BBC) keep using the word lockdown, it is quarantine
I guess because I think of quarantine as being what happens when people are put in isolation. A friend's cousin in Zaragoza has the virus: that's his situation, his family leave food and medicine outside his door.

Whereas I think of lockdown as a situation where we're extremely restricted in our movements, with the intention snd general effect of preventing travel from one place to another. That's the position we're in here right now.
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Tim Spanton
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:42 am

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:09 pm
Chris Goodall wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:35 pm
Daniel Gormally wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:52 am
I got the impression that a lot of the people I spoke to about the 4ncl weren't looking forward to playing. If it is going to be cancelled that takes the decision out of their hands which makes it a lot easier.
Absolutely - the event happens because the people want it to happen. If the people no longer want it to happen, it doesn't matter whether that's because they fear coronavirus or they fear checkmate.
Daniel Gormally wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:52 am
I would have played if it had gone on. But obviously it's not just the danger to yourself, it's the people you come into contact with on a daily basis, who might be quite elderly and who may have underlying health issues.
There does seem to be a greater degree of "bring it on" among the younger folk than the older. I would have assumed that when I get old, I'll prefer to die of something like coronavirus than wait for my brain to wear out. Fear of regret is a powerful thing though. You don't want to think that you could have avoided getting coronavirus if you'd acted differently.
If anything, I am getting the opposite impression.

Many older people don't seem bothered at all, some even using the now all too familiar from Brexit "DURING THE WAR" spiel - others are keen government supporters who simply presume that "good old Boris will sort things out and everything will be OK".
I flew back from Munich airport yesterday. Quite a few people wearing masks, but they were mostly young with a sprinkling of middle-aged - no oldies.

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Jon Tait
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Jon Tait » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:09 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:28 pm
I am not sure what else we expected from a politician who, generally in life, is pro-risk ...
Nicely put :lol: . Much more diplomatic than "who couldn't give a toss"...
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Andrew Zigmond
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by Andrew Zigmond » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:15 pm

Having reviewed Twitter this morning I'm glad I'm not the only one being attacked for having the temerity to ask how people expected to live on £0 for an indefinite period are expected to live.

If a structured and calm lockdown is necessary to contain this virus then I support it. I do not support mass hysteria and the witch hunts that tend to follow.
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JustinHorton
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:18 pm

Andrew Zigmond wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:15 pm
Having reviewed Twitter this morning I'm glad I'm not the only one being attacked for having the temerity to ask how people expected to live on £0 for an indefinite period are expected to live.
Nobody has attacked you for this...
Andrew Zigmond wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:15 pm
I do not support mass hysteria and the witch hunts
...and physician, heal thyself.
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