Worrying times

[Daniel Gormally]

I've had worse rejections lol.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

this is the most depressing and frightening thing I've come across- a monster that is rising exponentially.

italy has lost a lot of people but there are countries like the US with far bigger populations- if it takes off there like it has in italy then could become very scary.

[David Sedgwick]

Deleted

[Daniel Gormally]

I read somewhere last night that you are perhaps more likely to get coronavirus from lots of small contacts with asymptomatic people, in say a confined area like a bar, than you are from a more prolonged contact with someone who is clearly showing symptoms

so that one fact might put people off large crowds for the foreseeable future. in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.

[David Sedgwick]

… in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.

Away from chess, I think that the pandemic is bound to accelerate two already major trends:

1. From the high street to online shopping.

2. From the use of cash to card payments.

However, as regards chess tournaments, I am not so sure. I think that the first few congresses after the shutdown could well see record entries.

In bridge, this is likely to be even more marked. As far as I can tell, most members of my club regard online play as a poor second best and are looking forward to their Thursday evenings returning to normal as soon as possible.

[NickFaulks]

and we'll see the game move even further online.

You could be right for club level chess ( not in my case or that of most of my colleagues ) but we are still a million miles away from online being viable for the professional game.

[JustinHorton]

… in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.

However, as regards chess tournaments, I am not so sure. I think that the first few congresses after the shutdown could well see record entries.

In principle you may be right, but bear in mind that a lot of people are going tio be absolutely cleaned out (and worse) before these is over. Myself among them, I should think.

[David Sedgwick]

In principle you may be right, but bear in mind that a lot of people are going tio be absolutely cleaned out (and worse) before these is over. Myself among them, I should think.

I shall have to cut back on travel even when it becomes possible, but that makes it more likely that I shall play in local events.

[Matt Bridgeman]

Boris has tested positive. Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers! Hospitals still awaiting adequate protective gear. Workers starting to drop like flies and ICU’s already approaching capacity.

[NickFaulks]

Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers!

The offshoring of our manufacturing industry was a stupid policy which was always going to come back and bite us, as it now is. However, given that a pathetically small number of tests are available, I can accept that that the Prime Minister is at the top of the list.

[David Sedgwick]

Epidemics tend to cross barriers of class and wealth though, there's no escaping them. (Already here in Spain some very senior political figures ... have tested positive.)

Very prescient Justin, given that in the UK sufferers now include HRH The Prince of Wales and the Prime Minister.

[Reg Clucas]

Epidemics tend to cross barriers of class and wealth though, there's no escaping them. (Already here in Spain some very senior political figures ... have tested positive.)

Very prescient Justin, given that in the UK sufferers now included HRH The Prince of Wales and the Prime Minister.

"In the slaughterhouse all corpses smell the same
Whether Queens or pawns or innocents at the game"

(Peter Hammill)

[David Gilbert]

Well presumably the correct criteria in these categories are the same voices epidemiologists normally use?

I should not have written "if properly calculated". I meant "if calculated in an ideal way". Epidemiologists, like others trying to model social science, do the best they can with imperfect data.

For the numerator, they would use whatever it says on the death certificate. In different societies there may in cases of doubt be pressures either to stress a particular cause or to downplay it. For the denominator, they would use reported cases because that's all they've got.

I did see a piece of modelling which tried to estimate how many people might already be immune - unfortunately the conclusion was something like "between 10,000 and 10,000,000", which presumably shows how difficult it is.

We will at some point know the death rate for COVID-19 because that is being measured. But we won't know the death rate among people with coronavirus because we only know the number of reported cases. To do that we would need to test the wider population to include people who may have had mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic. If we want to compare where we are internationally it might best be expressed as the number of deaths, where the underlying cause is COVID-19, per million population.

International Classification of Diseases version 10 (known as ICD-10) is used for coding diagnosis and deaths. Figures for the actual number of people admitted to hospital and the number of deaths will be recorded using two emergency ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued in the last few days by the World Health Organisation. U07.1 for cases confirmed by pathology and U07.2 where the virus has been diagnosed without pathology confirmation. In England these data will be collected as part of the Hospital Episode Statistics, known as HES.

Keep safe.

[Angus French]

If we want to compare where we are internationally it might best be expressed as the number of deaths, where the underlying cause is COVID-19, per million population...

International Classification of Diseases version 10 (known as ICD-10) is used for coding diagnosis and deaths. Figures for the actual number of people admitted to hospital and the number of deaths will be recorded using two emergency ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued in the last few days by the World Health Organisation. U07.1 for cases confirmed by pathology and U07.2 where the virus has been diagnosed without pathology confirmation. In England these data will be collected as part of the Hospital Episode Statistics, known as HES.

But do the new codes attribute the cause of death to Covid-19 or do they merely say that a deceased person tested positive for Covid-19?

[Mick Norris]

Boris has tested positive. Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers! Hospitals still awaiting adequate protective gear. Workers starting to drop like flies and ICU’s already approaching capacity.

Matt Hancock has now tested positive

Whether the country would run better without him, Johnson and some of the others is a good question; they wouldn't be on my list of key workers

[John Moore]

Mick, would you rather have had Corbyn and his cronies. At least, the current lot have had the good sense to rely on the scientific advice.