Worrying times

[Matt Mackenzie]

There is also Swedes being naturally conformist to consider, they probably need less "nudging" to do what they are told than most.

[IM Jack Rudd]

Sweden has just banned gatherings of more than 50 people.

[Paul McKeown]

This thread isn't getting much better. At least the moonhowling with their tanks have stayed silent for a period. But we have had the benefit of a Michael Gove tribute act leading to a defiant statement that the death rate will be less than 0.1% of the infected, damn the experts and their mathematics and hoity-toity peer review process. "I stuck my finger in the wind, and it has never let me down yet." And from a scan of the comments since then, I'm not waiting breathlessly for a swift recovery.

[Angus French]

And now Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, appears to have the virus.

[Paul McKeown]

And as for "offshoring manufacturing", it was jobs for the boys as usual, as the companies of well-known Tory donors and Brexit campaigners, with no prior experience, were given the job of manufacturing and supplying medical ventilators to the NHS, whilst small specialist manufacturers with stock in hand and the ability to immediately increase production (on these shores, rather than in Malaysia with Dyson, as an example) were told, "Oh, sorry, the dog ate your email." As also apparently happened the EU Commissions email to the UK government, offering to procure cheaply and quickly, not only ventilators, but also personal protection equipment, intubation tubes, visors, hand-gel, etc. Never mind, apparently the CEO (Chief Eugenics Officer) couldn't flee fast enough from Downing Street when it was announced that his chum, Bogus Johnson, had contracted the disease.

[Paul McKeown]

Anyway, in a final attempt to bring this thread back on topic, I will repeat.

Keep well, keep safe, everyone. Let's meet and play chess again in better times.

[David Sedgwick]

Anyway, in a final attempt to bring this thread back on topic, I will repeat.

Keep well, keep safe, everyone. Let's meet and play chess again in better times.

Thanks Paul.

[Paul McKeown]

It's alright, David. I saw your attempts earlier to give hope for a future for the chess community, before being dragged off into politics.

[Paul McKeown]

(I will permit myself, just this comment, but I think your "side" could do a lot better, and is doing poorly for reasons of reflexive bias that Jonathan Rogers has pointed out, and from decades of running down essential services, including what was the once immense logistic capability of the army, which is now smaller than at any time since before the Napoleonic wars.)

[Paul McKeown]

For those interested in actual expert prediction, Imperial College, in collaboration with the WHO, released a very readable paper with estimates for final death tolls, based on various suppression strategies.

The paper is The Global Impact of COVID-19and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression.

It is easy to calculate a crude final death rate from their sophisticated models. It comes to 0.4 to 0.5 deaths per cent of the infected.(*)

If the assumptions and models used in producing this paper are correct, then it is clear that strict isolation measures are necessary, despite the economic cost.

(*) Clearly lower than 10% bellowed by some and clearly higher than "less than one per thousand" guessed by others. Assuming that I haven't butchered the maths - always possible.

[Paul McKeown]

Oh, and let's give a nod to the good work of some from within the chess community.

Dr. Neill Cooper has started a fascinating Youtube channel, in which he attempts to teach remotely the differential and integral calculus of the A Level Mathematics and Further Mathematics syllabuses. There is one aside in which he imparts the elements of modelling the growth of epidemics.

The SIR Model of Epidemics

[NickFaulks]

But we have had the benefit of a Michael Gove tribute act leading to a defiant statement that the death rate will be less than 0.1% of the infected

I've made a note to return to this when it's over. If there are more than 50,000 excess deaths, you win.

[David Sedgwick]

It's alright, David. I saw your attempts earlier to give hope for a future for the chess community, before being dragged off into politics.

(I will permit myself, just this comment, but I think your "side" could do a lot better, and is doing poorly for reasons of reflexive bias that Jonathan Rogers has pointed out, and from decades of running down essential services, including what was the once immense logistic capability of the army, which is now smaller than at any time since before the Napoleonic wars.)

I was dragged off into politics because I wanted to express the importance which I attach to people being able to continue to speak their minds. Thank you for doing so.

Lots of people are now struggling to continue to do their jobs even as they themselves become sick and I have great admiration for them. That includes members of the Government.

I'll bow out there for now.

[Paul McKeown]

But we have had the benefit of a Michael Gove tribute act leading to a defiant statement that the death rate will be less than 0.1% of the infected

I've made a note to return to this when it's over. If there are more than 50,000 excess deaths, you win.

Errr. There is an enormous assumption in your "reasoning" there, that three quarters of the population will be infected. And I note the weasel word, "excess", there, which is straying dangerously into Dominic Cummings fiefdom as Chief Eugenics Officer.

[Paul McKeown]

I was dragged off into politics because I wanted to express the importance which I attach to people being able to continue to speak their minds. Thank you for doing so.

Lots of people are now struggling to continue to do their jobs even as they themselves become sick and I have great admiration for them. That includes members of the Government.

Thanks, David. My original post was a genuine wish for all in the chess community to avoid the worst that this pestilence is bringing, whether medical or economic, whether personally experienced or amongst friends and family. But some simply won't stand for such an expression of fraternity.