Worrying times

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Tim Spanton
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:04 pm

Brendan O'Gorman wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:55 pm
Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:03 pm
-- text omitted --
The charity is asking people to donate via text, citing the shocking - well, it shocked me - statistic that a child goes missing every second.
But when I did a quick calculation, the most shocking thing about this statistic is that anyone would dare put it forward.
Consider: one a second = 60 a minute = 3,600 an hour = 86,400 a day = 31.5million a year.
-- text omitted --
Are you sure they made this claim? Searching online, I found their Christmas appeal poster which claimed "Every five minutes, a child goes missing in the UK." https://gibson.co/portfolio/missing-peo ... marketing/
Yes, the claim is on posters in London (and elsewhere, for all I know) - the ones I have seen have been on illuminated digital ad-sites that change the ad every few seconds (not the technical description, probably, but clear enough, I hope)

Roger Lancaster
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Roger Lancaster » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:37 pm
bit.ly/39t6PSg

This is a video put out by the Czech Ministry of Health saying we should all wear face masks. I have to say that I believed the stories that only the proper ones do any good, but the Czechs don't think so and they seem to be doing quite well.

Anyway, I'm going to make one and wear it. What harm can it do? At worst it's a fashion statement.
It occurred to me that, even if the government here decided face masks were beneficial, any public announcement would lead to panic buying as everyone tried to get hold of one - which, in turn, made an announcement unlikely even if true.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Worrying times

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:20 pm

Brendan O'Gorman wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:55 pm
]

Are you sure they made this claim? Searching online, I found their Christmas appeal poster which claimed "Every five minutes, a child goes missing in the UK." https://gibson.co/portfolio/missing-peo ... marketing/
I can find ninety seconds, but nothing less than that
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

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Tim Spanton
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:34 pm

Hmm - thinking about it, I am almost certain the exact wording across the top of the posters (I will try to check tomorrow when exercising, if I pass one of the ad sites) is: "Every second a child is missing"
Searching for that online for images, I find the phrase has been used, but it is necessary to see the next line to get the correct meaning:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=%22ev ... 34&bih=620
I suspect that something similar is on these electronic ads, in which case, definitely my bad

David Sedgwick
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Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:17 pm

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm
It occurred to me that, even if the government here decided face masks were beneficial, any public announcement would lead to panic buying as everyone tried to get hold of one - which, in turn, made an announcement unlikely even if true.
Even now, I doubt that you could find one for sale with a delivery time of less than a month. If you can, let me know.

Brendan O'Gorman
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Brendan O'Gorman » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:25 pm

Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:34 pm
Hmm - thinking about it, I am almost certain the exact wording across the top of the posters (I will try to check tomorrow when exercising, if I pass one of the ad sites) is: "Every second a child is missing"
Searching for that online for images, I find the phrase has been used, but it is necessary to see the next line to get the correct meaning:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=%22ev ... 34&bih=620
I suspect that something similar is on these electronic ads, in which case, definitely my bad
Don't beat yourself up over it. I suspect the wording was intended to mislead.

AustinElliott
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Re: Worrying times

Post by AustinElliott » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:29 pm

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm
NickFaulks wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:37 pm
bit.ly/39t6PSg

This is a video put out by the Czech Ministry of Health saying we should all wear face masks. I have to say that I believed the stories that only the proper ones do any good, but the Czechs don't think so and they seem to be doing quite well.

Anyway, I'm going to make one and wear it. What harm can it do? At worst it's a fashion statement.
It occurred to me that, even if the government here decided face masks were beneficial, any public announcement would lead to panic buying as everyone tried to get hold of one - which, in turn, made an announcement unlikely even if true.
At the moment, with the supply of masks limited and the demand huge, there is absolutely no doubt that the places and people that need them the most are hospitals and healthcare workers. Which is another reason not to tell the public they should wear them. Wearing a mask *might* make a small difference to viral transmission for the public at large. It makes a huge difference in healthcare, where healthcare workers have to be close to people and where there almost certainly are patients there who are infective.

The healthcare consensus is that, if you can stay 2m away from people, that should be as good as wearing a mask. Of course, you could argue that, if you can't do the 2m distancing (have to go to shop, have to get in bus etc.) then a mask might help. So if you want to make a couple out of an old tea towel, wear one when you go out, and wash the one you've worn each evening, go for it. But if you decide that. with the mask, you can now go closer to people, then the mask will likely have done more harm than good. Handwashing, and distancing, are the proven ways to reduce viral transmission. That cannot be said often enough.

Tim Spanton
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:10 pm

Also, as government advisers warned, people seem to spend a lot of time adjusting their masks, making hand-to-mouth/nose/eyes contact more likely

Mike Gunn
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Mike Gunn » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:12 am

Even at the rate of one every 5 minutes there are going to be 100,000 lost kids wandering around out there every year which seems a bit on the high side...

Brendan O'Gorman
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Brendan O'Gorman » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:14 pm

Depends on the definition of missing. If they're counting every phone call to the police or local authority or school from a worried parent whose child is late home from classes … I don't know whether this charity (or their fund raising agents) are capable of this, but some feel able to play fast and loose with statistics if it's in "a good cause". Not unlike chess promoters claiming more than 600 million chess players worldwide.

Nick Burrows
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Nick Burrows » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:26 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:17 pm
Roger Lancaster wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm
It occurred to me that, even if the government here decided face masks were beneficial, any public announcement would lead to panic buying as everyone tried to get hold of one - which, in turn, made an announcement unlikely even if true.
Even now, I doubt that you could find one for sale with a delivery time of less than a month. If you can, let me know.
There are no problems buying bandanas. They have the big advantage of being washable. Buy 10, wash each day after use.
If you really want to be careful, eye protection is a good idea too - Protective glasses like those used for gardening or science classes.

Nick Burrows
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Re: Worrying times

Post by Nick Burrows » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:37 pm

AustinElliott wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:29 pm
Wearing a mask *might* make a small difference to viral transmission for the public at large.
This virus is exceptionally contagious. Its been shown that it can live in aerosols for a couple of hours. In places where there are lots of people, i would assume that the virus is literally in the air.
It is not known exactly how much protection covering your mouth, nose and eyes offers - but it most likely offers some.
If you are in any way in a higher risk category, using that protection is wise.

NickFaulks
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Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:46 pm

If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

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JustinHorton
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Re: Worrying times

Post by JustinHorton » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:47 pm

Re: masks

(Obviously you'd want to see some high-level scientific discussion of whether that's a meaningful annotation, but it is at least a properly-informed thread.)
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

NickFaulks
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Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:21 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:47 pm
Re: masks/quote]

Interesting. Some quick comments.

1. The "mask" countries could just as well be grouped as "East Asia", excluding China as a special case for many reasons. Malaysia could be an interesting exception.

2. The Czech Republic is a non-Asian country which should be in the "mask" group, but they do not appear at all.

3. The "number of cases" of course depends heavily on the number of tests - you can't be found positive if you're not tested. Number of deaths would be a better parameter, but here I suspect it would show a similar pattern.
Last edited by NickFaulks on Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

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