Worrying times

[JustinHorton]

Your guide to the pandemic movies. A shot from one of these currently serves as my profile photo on Facebook and Twitter.

[Matt Bridgeman]

The Happening was on the list Probably one of the worst movies of the last 20 years.

For my money, the best recent end of the world movie would be the little seen Aussie film, These Final Hours.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/these_final_hours

A really imaginative Canadian film, where actual words carry a killer virus - sounds terrible but it’s actually brilliant - is the also little seen, Pontypool.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pontypool

[Kevin Thurlow]

The new explanation for cancellation of Tripods is that people didn't want Science Fiction any more. They cancelled Dr Who a few years later when Sylvester McCoy had to put up with dreadful stories for a few years (which might be why it was less popular).

The family bought a board game called "Pandemic" a couple of years ago, where the players cooperate to beat off the virus. We are leaving it in the cupboard at present... I bet sales aren't good now.

[Andy McCulloch]

Did Madagascar close down in time this year?

[Reg Clucas]

Let’s hope it’s all planned and under control, but I’m hearing the military and surprisingly a lot of tanks and hardware are rolling into London and up north to Edinburgh today. Similar reports in Paris. Are we about to be under martial law?

No - Boris has decided that the best way to tackle the virus is with Blitzkrieg tactics!

[Matt Mackenzie]

He says we can beat this in 12 weeks, *if* everybody does what they are supposed to. But the reality is that mere "nudges" won't achieve that.

The cynic might suspect the government's main motivation is being able to blame individuals if things go horribly wrong?

[Kevin Thurlow]

"He says we can beat this in 12 weeks"

That may be based on the fact that China has had the problem for about, er, 12 weeks and they seem to have it under control. However, over there, people tend to do what they are told, whereas here, people don't (possibly as they currently have the freedom not to).

I think he has to try to be as upbeat as possible, (given the circumstances), and it is a good idea to have the scientists flanking him to take the difficult technical questions. And of course, if someone has a horrible continuous cough and they go around coughing on people, it is their fault if it spreads quickly. Never underestimate public stupidity and arrogance.

[Matt Bridgeman]

Not too many signs today on the BBC news feed that the 12 weeks idea has really taken off with the scientific advisory group advising the government. Lots of emphasis on the likelihood of restrictions needing to be in place for 6 to 12 months, mass production of a vaccine probably 15 months away minimum, provided one is ever found. A death rate suggested of 0.5 to 1%, which is better than some touted around.

[JustinHorton]

I think he has to try to be as upbeat as possible

How about coherent, would that be a useful addition to his portfolio?

[NickFaulks]

A death rate suggested of 0.5 to 1%, which is better than some touted around.

But out of what? I now know of five people, either directly or once removed, who are confident that they have had the thing and have recovered or are recovering. None has been tested, because there was no medical reason to do so, so they are not in the denominator. Neither are those, who knows how many, who have had it but the symptoms were sufficiently mild that they never even knew. The death rate is meaningless.

[Tim Spanton]

A death rate suggested of 0.5 to 1%, which is better than some touted around.

But out of what? I now know of five people, either directly or once removed, who are confident that they have had the thing and have recovered or are recovering. None has been tested, because there was no medical reason to do so, so they are not in the denominator. Neither are those, who knows how many, who have had it but the symptoms were sufficiently mild that they never even knew. The death rate is meaningless.

But if what you say is generally true, rather than merely anecdotal, then the death-rate is even lower than many dared hoped for.
However, I am typing this from a Craft Beer pub in Commercial Road (London), and have just paid £9.35 for a small can of "Caribbean Chocolate Cake," which may not be a good way of spending my resources when on the prowl for loo roll (have been existing on kitchen towelling for almost a week).

https://beauchess.blogspot.com/

[NickFaulks]

But if what you say is generally true, rather than merely anecdotal, then the death-rate is even lower than many dared hoped for.

I have believed from the start that the headline "death rates" were a joke - it isn't just about the numerator. Actuarial training stays with you.

Loo rolls were available this morning at 7.10am in our local Sainsburys - probably not at 7.20. I was one of the few customers not to leave with a pack of 18. I did get eggs, though. Soap unavailable, so I shall just have to sing Happy Birthday and hope for the best.

[JustinHorton]

But if what you say is generally true, rather than merely anecdotal, then the death-rate is even lower than many dared hoped for.

A thousand people dead in Spain so far, while you're being breezy about death rates.

Meanwhile in the UK not just the largest number, but the largest day-on-day rise so far.

[Mick Norris]

There are more than 10,000 deaths worldwide so far, and there may have been more not correctly attributed as well, so back to the original post, take care of yourselves and try and stay safe

[Kevin Thurlow]

"A thousand people dead in Spain so far, while you're being breezy about death rates."

Obviously each individual death is horrible for friends/family. But if the death rate is less than 1 %, that is better than more than 10 % dying. I take your point though. The day after my father died of heart trouble, the news cheerfully reported that somebody famous had recovered from some heart problem. I was furious - it would have been much better if they had died, (instead of my father), from my point of view. I did realise that was a bit unfair later.