Some thoughts on anti-cheating systems

[NickFaulks]

They are reliable enough to use in court.

Adam, I assume you are saying this on the basis that you will not be the one in the dock. But you might be, and I might be an expert witness for the prosecution. See you in Lausanne!

[Roger de Coverly]

See you in Lausanne!

Not a Court in the strictest sense of the word, but I note the comment in
https://www.fide.com/docs/decisions-res ... cision.pdf

6.The ETH notes the written report with statistical analysis received from Prof. Kenneth Regan on 9 November (part 1) and 15 November 2019 (part 2). Prof. Regan’s findings indicate high z-scores for both a sample of 24 tournaments and a further sample of 60 tournaments (which included the first-mentioned 24 events) taken of games played by Mr Rausis during the period October 2014 until April 2019. Taken at face value, these scores represent an astronomical likelihood of cheating overall, albeit not in every event and certainly not in every game.

They went on to say

9.Taking into account Mr Rausis’ acknowledgment of his guilt, co-operation at the hearing and remorse displayed, as well as his personal circumstances, but keeping in mind the precedent established by the ETH’s decision in case no. 7/2015, the ETH unanimously decidesd that: 9.1In the light of the respondent’s confessions and admission of guilt, as set out hereinabove, it was unnecessary for the ETH to perform an evaluation of the statistical evidence presented by Prof. Regan or to base its verdict on the sufficiency and weight of such evidence.

So they didn't confirm or deny whether they accepted the statistical evidence.

[JustinHorton]

Major events are limited to titled players so everyone has an established OTB history.

Without wanting to divert this thread too much, this did lead me to wonder how strong the strongest players are who have never played competitively OTB. I am guessing the answer is still relatively weak, but I wonder how weak, and I also assume it won't stay that way forever.

[NickFaulks]

Major events are limited to titled players so everyone has an established OTB history.

Without wanting to divert this thread too much, this did lead me to wonder how strong the strongest players are who have never played competitively OTB. I am guessing the answer is still relatively weak, but I wonder how weak, and I also assume it won't stay that way forever.

If by competitively you mean FIDE rated, which is all we know, then maybe quite strong. A while ago I looked into the case of this Indonesian player, rated 2480.

https://ratings.fide.com/profile/7100914

I concluded that it was entirely plausible that he was of full IM strength, but had simply not been within a day's travel of FIDE rated events. Indonesia is a big place!

[JustinHorton]

If by competitively you mean FIDE rated

No, I mean that they've not played locally-rated games either, that though they may have played casual games with a physical board and pieces, maybe at school or with a friend, they're otherwise pure internet players.

[Matt Bridgeman]

I think I’ve mentioned before that the UK Chess Challenge, which starts with something like 40,000 kids playing at the schools stage, often throws up some players who have only played casual games or online before. I think in general come the Giga Final and Terra Final stages, the more tournament established juniors dominate, but a few of the newbies probably pick up 120-ish initial ratings. Although in Dorset I hear they had an instant IM strength player! ...No, I’m not going there! Lol

[Ian Thompson]

how strong the strongest players are who have never played competitively OTB.

This one did rather well when he started playing OTB - http://www.ecfgrading.org.uk/new/player ... de=327319C.

[J T Melsom]

I've had a club member enter the ECF system with a 178 grade. He may have had a grade outside the published historic series, but judging by his age I think this unlikely.

[JustinHorton]

how strong the strongest players are who have never played competitively OTB.

This one did rather well when he started playing OTB - http://www.ecfgrading.org.uk/new/player ... de=327319C.

Maybe, but we're trying to discuss this without discussing that case, no?

[JustinHorton]

I think I’ve mentioned before that the UK Chess Challenge, which starts with something like 40,000 kids playing at the schools stage, often throws up some players who have only played casual games or online before. I think in general come the Giga Final and Terra Final stages, the more tournament established juniors dominate, but a few of the newbies probably pick up 120-ish initial ratings.

I've had a club member enter the ECF system with a 178 grade. He may have had a grade outside the published historic series, but judging by his age I think this unlikely.

It's interesting, isn't it? I mean sooner or later, somebody is going to come through as a very good player without ever having played any real OTB chess, if this hasn't happened already. No doubt their skill will be in blitz rather than longplay, but it's going to happen.

[JustinHorton]

I only really raise this here because we assume that we can judge somebody's rough chess strength by looking at their FIDE grade (or ECF, or nationally or regionally issued Elo) and then we can make allowance for the type of chess being played, plus a large margin of error or what you will. But what if we can't even do the first bit?

[Matt Bridgeman]

After a couple of years of no proper over-the-board chess will there be a meeting in the middle? The over-the-board players get de-skilled playing only online chess, and the online only players do more study as suddenly there are new cash prizes and rewards available for online tournaments.

[Matthew Turner]

I think I’ve mentioned before that the UK Chess Challenge, which starts with something like 40,000 kids playing at the schools stage, often throws up some players who have only played casual games or online before. I think in general come the Giga Final and Terra Final stages, the more tournament established juniors dominate, but a few of the newbies probably pick up 120-ish initial ratings.

I've had a club member enter the ECF system with a 178 grade. He may have had a grade outside the published historic series, but judging by his age I think this unlikely.

It's interesting, isn't it? I mean sooner or later, somebody is going to come through as a very good player without ever having played any real OTB chess, if this hasn't happened already. No doubt their skill will be in blitz rather than longplay, but it's going to happen.

But there you have your answer (at least in part) - they will COME THROUGH without playing OTB, so you’ll still have a history where you can show a progression over time.

[J T Melsom]

In my limited experience players may have played predominantly online but it shouldn't be assumed that they are more proficient at faster forms of chess, or that they intuitively play faster. At least one player saw chess as an interesting challenge and was pretty booked up, even before his OTB career started. That's a deeper understanding than would be achieved through blitz and faster chess alone.

[JustinHorton]

But there you have your answer (at least in part) - they will COME THROUGH without playing OTB, so you’ll still have a history where you can show a progression over time.

For sure, but they'll have come through unmonitored, yes? Which may not make any difference, but are we sure about that?

(And we won't be able to make comparisons with OTB players of similar strength, because there'll be no such thing.)