(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:07 pm

There is usually local / national guidance released after announcements. That will inform on OTB chess and if we can sort illicit underground chess clubs out. Which sounds fun.
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:18 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:02 pm
But, again - being "infectious" and just giving you similar to a bad cold isn't the most important thing and never was. Deaths and hospitalisations should be the sole criteria for lockdowns, as the original justification (remember that?) was "we cant let the NHS be overwhelmed".
Of course. But how much less dangerous do you think it is going to be? 2 fold? Well, wait 2-3 days and you've caught up in terms of hospitalisations while still speeding ahead.

Obviously there's a comfort in the sense that it should burn through the vulnerable population quite fast, but it could do huge damage while doing so. We've still got rather too many people unvaccinated to be at all happy.

Even if it has by some (incredibly unlikely) miracle actually turned 'harmless' then we'll very likely need to impose some extra restrictions to at least slow it down a bit, because we won't know that for sure until its much too late.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Chris Goodall » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:33 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:02 pm
But, again - being "infectious" and just giving you similar to a bad cold isn't the most important thing and never was. Deaths and hospitalisations should be the sole criteria for lockdowns, as the original justification (remember that?) was "we cant let the NHS be overwhelmed".
I was naïve enough to believe that "flatten the curve" should be taken in its mathematical sense. Make the curve less pointy, but with a fatter tail.

The journo-political complex quickly decided that it actually meant "reduce the area under the curve". Take people who would have died of CoViD, and have them die of something less newsworthy instead.

To me that's a much more dubious goal, especially when you're making no effort to quantify the additional deaths from all other causes. It's akin to dropping the speed limit to 10mph, waiting for some people not to die in car accidents, and then putting it back up to 70mph.
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Brian Valentine
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Brian Valentine » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:55 pm

Chris Goodall wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:33 pm

......
To me that's a much more dubious goal, especially when you're making no effort to quantify the additional deaths from all other causes....
The effort is being made, for instance https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and- ... ty-monitor

Roger de Coverly
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger de Coverly » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:36 pm

Brian Valentine wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:55 pm

The effort is being made, for instance https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and- ... ty-monitor
There's also the material published by the Office for National Statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ges/deaths

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:39 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:38 am
MartinCarpenter wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:47 am
2-3 days doubling time with the current reduced rates of mixing, my goodness.
All of the evidence so far is that you get the sniffles for a few days and emerge with a load of natural antibodies. That is the way Nature has handled these thing for millions of years and it's good enough for me.

The sooner this becomes the dominant variant, the better.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-omic ... 00289.html

Well for the 25,000 to 75,000 people it might not be such cheery news. I think 75,000 would equate roughly to 500 deaths a day.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:21 pm

As usual, words like "might" and "could" and "up to" are doing a fair bit of work here.
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Phil Neatherway
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Phil Neatherway » Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:15 am

The same could be said of the words "All the evidence".

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59460252
What are the symptoms of Omicron?
So far, in South Africa, most people infected are young and their symptoms have been mild.

There is some suggestion that the variant could be causing some slightly different symptoms to Delta - including aches and pains, and no loss of taste or smell - but it's too early to say for certain.

Hospitals in South Africa are seeing more people admitted with more serious symptoms - but many are unvaccinated or have had only one dose. It will take a few more weeks to work out if deaths are increasing too.

In the UK, where large numbers of people are protected with two or three doses of a Covid vaccine, some scientists say Omicron could be much milder and have less of an impact.
So the moral is to make sure you are vaccinated, if all you want are a few sniffles.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:27 am

Phil Neatherway wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:15 am
The same could be said of the words "All the evidence".
If the evidence is that a variant is serious, they say the country must be locked down because it is serious.

If the evidence is that it is mild, they say the country must be locked down because the evidence might change.

Can someone remind me why we look at evidence?
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:38 am

Yes, the "we have to stay locked down forever because some devastating new variant MIGHT emerge" line was always the silliest.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Simon Rogers
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Simon Rogers » Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:46 am

On a positive note I am pleased to report that we had the highest attendance last Monday at Poulton-le-Fylde Chess Club since we have reopened.
15 people turned up for club games.
This Monday Poulton 2 are at home to Lytham 2 in the Blackpool & Fylde Chess League.

Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Sun Dec 12, 2021 12:17 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:27 am
Phil Neatherway wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:15 am
The same could be said of the words "All the evidence".
If the evidence is that a variant is serious, they say the country must be locked down because it is serious.

If the evidence is that it is mild, they say the country must be locked down because the evidence might change.

Can someone remind me why we look at evidence?
Who is the "they" and where are they saying what they're saying?

I haven't seen people demand a lockdown but I have seen people call for more serious measures - to protect against the possibilities of more serious illness (including Long COVID) and death and against the NHS being further overwhelmed and a lockdown. For example, this statement from Independent SAGE.

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:24 pm

It would seem fairly likely we’ll be looking at a raft of stricter measures come next weekend. Whether that’s enough to knock out chess events for the immediate future, who knows?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ak-reveals

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Sun Dec 12, 2021 8:16 pm

The Government are looking at boosters, with a mass drive into the New Year. It does appear a complete mess of mixed messages though. Each week brings a raft of new measures.
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Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Sun Dec 12, 2021 8:23 pm

Stephen Westmoreland wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 8:16 pm
The Government are looking at boosters, with a mass drive into the New Year. It does appear a complete mess of mixed messages though. Each week brings a raft of new measures.
I suspect Boris will drop the motherlode of new covid restrictions in a Thursday press conference to blot out the bad news day that’s coming when the safe Tory seat in North Shropshire goes to the Lib Dem’s in the by-election.