(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

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John Townsend
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by John Townsend » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:15 pm

Joseph Conlon said:

" ... we will all be exposed to it sooner or later (if not already)."

What do you base that on?

Joseph Conlon
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Joseph Conlon » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:22 pm

The extreme transmissibility of Delta.

If approx 1% of the population currently has Covid and you go to a theatre, a restaurant, catch a half-busy train, then sooner or later (probably sooner) you pass close by someone with Covid. We know from eg New Zealand that among an unvaccinated population Delta spreads even through such fleeting encounters that can last seconds.

John Townsend
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by John Townsend » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:28 pm

It depends what you mean by "exposed to it". I thought you meant "infected by it".

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:50 pm

2 of my kids have just finished isolation, testing positive and my daughter in particular, run down. Neither myself, my wife or other son have picked it up. It is endemic and running through schools at present. A lot of young people will be immune now after COVID ran rampant for a few weeks.
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Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:21 pm

Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:22 pm
We know from eg New Zealand that among an unvaccinated population Delta spreads even through such fleeting encounters that can last seconds.
What's your evidence that transmission can be through "fleeting encounters that can last seconds"?

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:55 pm

Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm
Vaccines work.
Vaccines provide good protection, in particular against serious illness. But their effectiveness declines over time. Hence: booster vaccinations.
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm
One can argue that it it is better to be exposed to Covid now - while the effect of vaccination is still relatively fresh - than in 18 months time.
I don't understand this statement. How is exposure "better" now? What's to stop exposure now and in the future?
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm
Equally, one can argue that attempting to eliminate any spread of infectious diseases is unhealthy and results in a long-term lack of immunity that allows subsequent vicious epidemics years later.
I think the evidence is that immunity from vaccination is better than immunity from natural infection. Some further information here.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stewart Reuben » Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:44 pm

I played in the British 65+ Championship in Milton Keynes. Any player had the right to insist both players were masked. Very few so insisted. Had the opponent refused to wear a mask, then the player would have received a win bye and I can't remember what the refuser would receive, perhaps 0.5 point, perhaps zero.
I have lived in a retirement village since 9 July. We play organised bridge each Tuesday afternoon. I think nobody wears a mask, even when moving from one table to another, or going to get refreshments. When playing bridge one is in close proximity to three other players. From my flat I can see people exercising in the same village hall where we play bridge. They are at some distance from each other, but nobody I can see is wearing a mask.
I am not aware of anybody, although the minimum age is 65, coming down with covid.
I should have taken a visor to Milton Keynes, but forgot. It doesn't provide as much protection as a mask, but might help.
I am not in any way suggesting our village is the best model. It is just additional information.

Joseph Conlon
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Joseph Conlon » Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:47 pm

Angus French wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:21 pm
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:22 pm
We know from eg New Zealand that among an unvaccinated population Delta spreads even through such fleeting encounters that can last seconds.
What's your evidence that transmission can be through "fleeting encounters that can last seconds"?
When Delta took off in Australia and New Zealand this summer, the very small cases numbers allowed (in some cases) complete contact tracing, including cases of transmission from people walking past each other in a shopping mall (the CCTV of this can be found somewhere on the web because I have seen it before).

One link is

https://www.fastcompany.com/90662386/ju ... ant-spread

but putting 'fleeting encounter' 'Covid' 'Delta" and 'Australia" into google will give lots.

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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Joseph Conlon » Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:17 pm

Angus French wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:55 pm
Vaccines provide good protection, in particular against serious illness. But their effectiveness declines over time. Hence: booster vaccinations.
Which are indeed fine in themselves, but it not clear whether these will be accessible to everyone or whether the logistics are there to roll them out every year in the numbers of the original vaccination drive.
Angus French wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:55 pm
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm
One can argue that it it is better to be exposed to Covid now - while the effect of vaccination is still relatively fresh - than in 18 months time.
I don't understand this statement. How is exposure "better" now? What's to stop exposure now and in the future?
The logic is that if you are relatively freshly vaccinated Covid is unlikely to be a serious disease, and so minor Covid or some natural immune reaction would be beneficial from a long term perspective (i.e. it would be a natural booster).

If vaccines have waned to the extent that they are close to ineffective, then we know that Delta-variant Covid is a rather nasty disease with many unpleasant possibilities.
Angus French wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:55 pm
Joseph Conlon wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:24 pm
Equally, one can argue that attempting to eliminate any spread of infectious diseases is unhealthy and results in a long-term lack of immunity that allows subsequent vicious epidemics years later.
I think the evidence is that immunity from vaccination is better than immunity from natural infection. Some further information here.
To me the fundamental point here is that the vaccines target the spike protein, whereas natural immunity should be more broad-based. So any subsequent evolution of Covid to modify the spike protein could disrupt immunity solely coming from vaccines, whereas natural immunity would still retain knowledge of the other aspects of the virus.

I expect this could in principle be dealt with by repeated boosters that target any modifications, but this may be extremely expensive if delivered on the scale of the initial roll-out.

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Chris Goodall
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Chris Goodall » Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:42 pm

Is it not all going to be irrelevant, because we're only two weeks away from having to cancel events again?
David Robertson wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:26 pm
John Sellen wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:01 pm
From the Torbay Chess Congress website

"On a positive note, we are planning to hold the 2021 Congress on Armistice weekend (12th - 14th November). We hope to start accepting entries for the 2021 Congress around the middle of 2021.
On a negative note, don't plan too deep. This event won't happen. We'll be well into a 3rd wave by then, albeit a wave hopefully lowered by vaccinations.
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:04 pm

Well, we are definitely within that third wave - lessened as noted - although it'll probably get worse when flu etc join in.

How the Government (and other people) are reacting to this isn't something anyone would be expected to be able to predict :)

It is definitely not obvious if we'll make it through to (say) March without losing some months of chess activity, although UK Gov does seem a bit set against any restrictions.
(Which probably increases the overall chances of us being actively forced to stop playing FtF chess for a bit.).

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:29 pm

Two weeks sounds extremely unlikely, especially given the tentative indications the present wave may be at least levelling off.

As far as the possibility of flu making things worse goes, all I can say is get your jab for that if you can (I'm having mine tomorrow)
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:49 am

Sure, no chance of stuff formally shutting off in two weeks.

I was defending the prediction itself - which was basically very accurate :)

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:22 pm

Nothing will happen until COP26 is done with. Think that is about 2 weeks!
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Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:06 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 3:29 pm
Two weeks sounds extremely unlikely, especially given the tentative indications the present wave may be at least levelling off.

As far as the possibility of flu making things worse goes, all I can say is get your jab for that if you can (I'm having mine tomorrow)
I'm doubting the present wave is levelling off. Government daily new case figures are down - but so are test numbers while the positivity number (the percentage of tests with a positive result) is up - not a good combination. Also the ZOE daily new *symptomatic* cases estimate is significantly higher - at more that 92K today vs. yesterday's Govt figure of 40K. ZOE article from yesterday here.

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