(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

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Stephen Westmoreland
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Stephen Westmoreland » Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:37 pm

8767 in hospital with COVID and 1008 with on ventilation. Off memory those in with are down by 1000 on a few weeks ago. Hopefully the downward trend will continue. Are we through the latest peak? That would be fantastic ahead of respiratory season.

I am day 6 into COVID myself. Knocked me for 6 with the loss of taste and smell weird.

Looking forwards to getting back over the board next week.
HDCA President

MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:59 am

The projections from sage are - absent a few risk factors like everyone instantly reverting to pre pandemic levels of mixing - basically for things to stay fairly level for months to come. No sharp peaks, but conversely no sharp declines either.

Just this grinding level of pain. I'd be inclined to listen to the various NHS people when they say that the current levels are very high. Also sounded like some big issues with care homes being in a terrible mess not helping the hospitals.

A bit of a worry/uncertainty about whether this wave of infections will get out from the school children into the really vulnerable older population. Made it to 40's/50's so far.

Matt Bridgeman
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:53 am

Yes, aside from the massive backlog of medical procedures building up, the lesser known issue is NHS staffing being massively effected by staff being ill with Covid in combination with a high level of trained staff walking away from the profession. For example, in early covid they took some radical steps such as making midwifery students 1 or 2 two years into their course fully qualified overnight. But it only filled some of the gap, and now there are a lack of qualified people coming through. People are being pulled out of non clinical roles and even retirement to try and keep things moving.

Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:17 am

Tim Spanton wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:07 pm
Angus French wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:00 pm
Tim Spanton wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:36 pm


That's why they go with seven-day averages
The numbers are still, I think, very high. Infections were higher still when the schools reopened without mitigations (at least in England) for the Autumn term and then reduced recently around Half Term. Now the schools are back... and there's a fear Winter weather won't help... There was also a slow uptake of booster vaccinations but that seems to have started to change. It's mostly older people who are being hospitalised and dying. Statistics for infections, hospitalisations and deaths with breakdowns by vaccination status and age group are now available in weekly reports published here. The ONS has estimated that on 2 October almost 850,000 people living in the UK had Long COVID symptoms 12 or more weeks after infection with 426,000 having symptoms a year or more after infection.

The hospital situation does not look good.
What would you regard as not "very high"?
Any number of recorded infection cases which results in a thousand or more deaths a week is certainly, in my view, very high.

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:19 am

Angus French wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:17 am
Tim Spanton wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:07 pm
Angus French wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:00 pm


The numbers are still, I think, very high. Infections were higher still when the schools reopened without mitigations (at least in England) for the Autumn term and then reduced recently around Half Term. Now the schools are back... and there's a fear Winter weather won't help... There was also a slow uptake of booster vaccinations but that seems to have started to change. It's mostly older people who are being hospitalised and dying. Statistics for infections, hospitalisations and deaths with breakdowns by vaccination status and age group are now available in weekly reports published here. The ONS has estimated that on 2 October almost 850,000 people living in the UK had Long COVID symptoms 12 or more weeks after infection with 426,000 having symptoms a year or more after infection.

The hospital situation does not look good.
What would you regard as not "very high"?
Any number of recorded infection cases which results in a thousand or more deaths a week is certainly, in my view, very high.
Yes, but what meets your view of not " very high"?

Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:02 pm

Tim Spanton wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:19 am
Angus French wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:17 am
Tim Spanton wrote:
Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:07 pm


What would you regard as not "very high"?
Any number of recorded infection cases which results in a thousand or more deaths a week is certainly, in my view, very high.
Yes, but what meets your view of not " very high"?
I have an idea of how I'd answer this question. But, before I do, I'd like to ask: do you, yourself, have an answer and are you prepared to publish it? (Am off out now for a few hours FWIW.)

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:44 am

Angus French wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:02 pm
Tim Spanton wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:19 am
Angus French wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:17 am

Any number of recorded infection cases which results in a thousand or more deaths a week is certainly, in my view, very high.
Yes, but what meets your view of not " very high"?
I have an idea of how I'd answer this question. But, before I do, I'd like to ask: do you, yourself, have an answer and are you prepared to publish it? (Am off out now for a few hours FWIW.)
Don't worry about it. I didn't really expect an answer - I was making a point

Angus French
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Angus French » Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:22 am

Tim Spanton wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:44 am
Angus French wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:02 pm
Tim Spanton wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:19 am


Yes, but what meets your view of not " very high"?
I have an idea of how I'd answer this question. But, before I do, I'd like to ask: do you, yourself, have an answer and are you prepared to publish it? (Am off out now for a few hours FWIW.)
Don't worry about it. I didn't really expect an answer - I was making a point
I don't think it's an easy question to answer! But I'm happy to give it go - if you are too.

Simon Rogers
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Simon Rogers » Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:28 pm

Another 2 new members on Monday at Poulton-le-Fylde Chess Club. The club room was full due the first team playing against Preston 1 in the Blackpool & Fylde League.

Roger Lancaster
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger Lancaster » Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:07 pm

As a matter of statistical interpretation, am I correct in believing that "deaths with 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid" includes anyone who fully recovers from the disease but, within said 28 days, dies from a totally unrelated cause ?

MSoszynski
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MSoszynski » Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:31 pm

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:07 pm
As a matter of statistical interpretation, am I correct in believing that "deaths with 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid" includes anyone who fully recovers from the disease but, within said 28 days, dies from a totally unrelated cause ?
Never mind the "fully recovers" bit — the answer is yes. Things get muddier when there is a further distinction between "due to" Covid and "involving" Covid, not to mention Covid being mentioned on death certificates without having been tested for.

Joseph Conlon
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Joseph Conlon » Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:43 pm

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:07 pm
As a matter of statistical interpretation, am I correct in believing that "deaths with 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid" includes anyone who fully recovers from the disease but, within said 28 days, dies from a totally unrelated cause ?
Yes. It also does not distinguish between those cases where Covid kills someone who would otherwise be alive and cases where people are already close to death and Covid is simply the particular hand that leads them across the threshold.

It's why I think excess mortality is the single most useful plot - it shows clearly the huge difference between events of March 2020 compared to Jan 2021 compared again to now.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by MartinCarpenter » Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:50 pm

Although even excess mortality got quite messy when you have a lock down because that moved all sorts of other levers.
(Like no flu last winter.).

Simon Rogers
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Simon Rogers » Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:12 pm

Austria is going into a three week full lockdown from Monday, so I expect there will be chess events cancelled in the country.
On a lighter note I have found a number of tournaments taking place in England not mentioned yet. So eyes down to the Congress Diary Category.
Fill your boots 👢 with this lot.
Here they come

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:21 am

The 2021/22 season of the 4NCL starts today at three venues.

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